Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

New South Wales + Date Seat 2CP vote L/NP ALP IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size25 Jun 2016Reid (NSW) 52%48% −1.3 Marginal L/NP?25 Jun 2016Macarthur (NSW) 50%50% −3.3 Marginal L/NP?25 Jun 2016Lindsay (NSW) 51%49% −2.0 Marginal L/NP?25 Jun 2016Gilmore (NSW) 51%49% −2.8 Marginal L/NP?25 Jun 2016Dobell (NSW) 51%49% +1.2 Notional marginal ALP?25 Jun 2016Banks (NSW) 52%48% −0.8 Marginal L/NP?24 Jun 2016Cowper (NSW) 50%50% −13.2 Safe L/NP62823 Jun 2016Eden-Monaro (NSW)Another electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 23 June 201645%55% −7.9 Marginal L/NP63623 Jun 2016Dobell (NSW)47%53% −2.8 Notional marginal ALP61623 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW)47%53% −6.8 Marginal L/NP63223 Jun 2016Lindsay (NSW)46%54% −7.0 Marginal L/NP61023 Jun 2016Macquarie (NSW)46%54% −8.5 Marginal L/NP63623 Jun 2016Page (NSW)46%54% −7.1 Marginal L/NP647 21 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW)Electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 21 June 2016 45% 55% −7.9 Marginal L/NP 719 21 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) 51% 49% −4.0 Marginal L/NP 656 21 Jun 2016 Page (NSW) 48% 52% −5.1 Marginal L/NP 788 20 Jun 2016 New England (NSW) 51% 49% −18.5 Safe L/NP 523 18 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW)47% 53% −6.1 Marginal L/NP ? 18 Jun 2016 Paterson (NSW)43% 57% −6.7 Notional marginal ALP ? 17 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) 53% 47% 0.0 Marginal L/NP 502 17 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW) 51% 49% −2.1 Marginal L/NP 537 17 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW) 50% 50% −3.3 Marginal L/NP 509 15 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW) 53.8% 46.2% −9.4 Safe L/NP 842 11 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW) 49% 51% −0.8 Notional marginal ALP 628 11 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW) 54% 46% +1.0 Marginal L/NP ? 31 May 2016 Wentworth (NSW)Malcolm Turnbull facing 10% swing in Wentworth as his popularity plummets: SMH 5 June 2016 58% 42% −10.9 Safe L/NP 626 19 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW) 49% 51% −4.4 Marginal L/NP 628 14 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW) 49% 51% −4.3 Marginal L/NP 514 14 May 2016 Banks (NSW) 50% 50% −2.8 Marginal L/NP 501 14 May 2016 Dobell (NSW) 50% 50% +0.2 Notional marginal ALP 504 14 May 2016 Lindsay (NSW) 54% 46% +1.0 Marginal L/NP 554

Victoria + Date Seat2CP voteL/NPALPGRNIND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size 25 Jun 2016Dunkley (Vic)53% 47% −2.6 Marginal L/NP ? 25 Jun 2016Corangamite (Vic)53% 47% −0.9 Marginal L/NP ? 25 Jun 2016Bruce (Vic) 48%52% −0.2 Marginal ALP ? 25 Jun 2016McEwen (Vic) 48%52% −1.8 Marginal ALP ? 20 Jun 2016Batman (Vic) 45%55% N/A Safe ALP 1100 17 Jun 2016Batman (Vic) 53% 47% N/A Safe ALP ? 17 Jun 2016Corangamite (Vic)51% 49% −2.9 Marginal L/NP 509 17 Jun 2016Dunkley (Vic)52% 48% −3.6 Marginal L/NP 50013 Jun 2016Menzies (Vic)61%39%−3.4 Safe L/NP 719 11 Jun 2016Corangamite (Vic)51% 49% −2.9 Marginal L/NP ? 11 Jun 2016Deakin (Vic)52% 48% −1.2 Marginal L/NP ? 3–4 Jun 2016Higgins (Vic)53% 47% −6.9 Fairly safe L/NP 1118 26 May 2016Corangamite (Vic)54% 46% +0.1 Marginal L/NP 770 13 May 2016Dunkley (Vic)Libs struggling in Dunkley without Billson: The Australian 13 May 2016 48%52% −7.6 Marginal L/NP ?

Queensland + Date Seat 2CP vote L/NP ALP KAP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size 25 Jun 2016 Kennedy (Qld)ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition 42% 58% −5.8 Marginal KAP ? 25 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld) 53% 47% −3.9 Fairly safe L/NP ? 25 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld) 52% 48% −2.3 Marginal L/NP ? 25 Jun 2016 Petrie (Qld) 46% 54% −4.5 Marginal L/NP ? 25 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld) 49% 51% −1.8 Marginal L/NP ? 25 Jun 2016 Griffith (Qld) 47% 53% 0.0 Marginal ALP ? 17 Jun 2016 Herbert (Qld) 54% 46% −2.2 Fairly safe L/NP 505 17 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld) 50% 50% −0.8 Marginal L/NP 529 17 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld) 51% 49% −3.3 Marginal L/NP 594 11 Jun 2016 Bonner (Qld) 56% 44% +2.3 Marginal L/NP ? 2 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld) 50% 50% −6.9 Fairly safe L/NP 836

Western Australia + Date Seat2CP voteL/NPALP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size 18 Jun 2016Pearce (WA)51%49% −8.3 Fairly safe L/NP ? 18 Jun 2016Hasluck (WA)50%50% −6.0 Fairly safe L/NP ? 17 Jun 2016Burt (WA) 48%52% −8.1 Fairly safe L/NP ? 16 Jun 2016Hasluck (WA)53% 47% −3.0 Fairly safe L/NP 753 11 Jun 2016Cowan (WA)50%50% −4.5 Marginal L/NP ? 10 May 2016Cowan (WA) 49%51% −5.5 Marginal L/NP 731

South Australia + Date Seat 2CP vote L/NP ALP NXT L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size 29 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA)Kate Ellis and Mark Butler expected to keep their seats, The Advertiser poll shows: The Advertiser 30 June 201647% 53% +0.9 Marginal ALP 518 29 Jun 2016 Port Adelaide (SA)33% 67% −3.0 Safe ALP 500+ 25 Jun 2016 Hindmarsh (SA) 50% 50% −1.9 Marginal L/NP 500+ 25 Jun 2016 Boothby (SA) 53% 47% −4.1 Fairly safe L/NP 500+ 20 Jun 2016 Barker (SA)Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull could lose another seat to independent Nick Xenophon’s team - Herald Sun 20 June 2016 48% 52% −18.6 Safe L/NP 869 20 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA)Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis headed for defeat to Liberals in Adelaide, ALP poll shows: The Advertiser 20 June 2016 51% 49% +4.9 Marginal ALP 364 17 Jun 2016 Sturt (SA)No Cookies | The Advertiser 58% 42% −2.1 Safe L/NP 596 16 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA) 48% 52% −14.5 Safe L/NP 681 11 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA) 45.7% 54.3% −16.8 Safe L/NP ? 9 Jun 2016 Grey (SA) 46% 54% −17.5 Safe L/NP 665 22 May 2016 Sturt (SA)No Cookies | The Advertiser 51% 49% −9.1 Safe L/NP 762 16 May 2016 Mayo (SA) 48.5% 51.5% −14.0 Safe L/NP 681

Tasmania + Date Seat 2CP vote L/NP ALP IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size 25 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas)50%50% −4.0 Marginal L/NP 538 25 Jun 2016 Braddon (Tas)50%50% −2.6 Marginal L/NP 566 25 Jun 2016 Denison (Tas) 35% 63% N/A Safe IND 552 25 Jun 2016 Franklin (Tas) 41% 59% −3.9 Marginal ALP 550 25 Jun 2016 Lyons (Tas) 45% 55% −6.2 Marginal L/NP 540 17 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas) 52% 48% −2.0 Marginal L/NP 517 31 May 2016 Bass (Tas)Narrow margins for Nikolic in Bass: poll – 9news.com.au 3 Jun 2016 49% 51% −5.0 Marginal L/NP 824 15 May 2016 Denison (Tas) 34% 66% N/A Safe IND 596 15 May 2016 Bass (Tas) 51% 49% −3.0 Marginal L/NP 632 15 May 2016 Lyons (Tas) 51% 49% −0.2 Marginal L/NP 602 15 May 2016 Franklin (Tas) 46% 54% +1.1 Marginal ALP 597 15 May 2016 Braddon (Tas) 53% 47% +0.4 Marginal L/NP 592

Northern Territory + Date Seat2CP voteL/NPALP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size 22−23 Jun 2016Solomon (NT)An independent poll shows Solomon MP Natasha Griggs will struggle to retain her seat at the federal election: NT News (News Ltd) 27 June 2016 39%61% −12.4 Marginal L/NP 513

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