The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st governor of Minnesota, as incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was U.S. Representative Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district, while the Republican Party nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson for a second consecutive time. The Independence Party of Minnesota did not field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election, polls showed Walz ahead; the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.
Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986, receiving more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota history. This was the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 in which any party won more than two consecutive elections, as well as the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
Candidates
Nominated Tim Walz, U.S. representative from Running mate: Peggy Flanagan, state representative
Eliminated in primary Tim Holden, real estate investor and candidate for mayor of Saint Paul in 2017 Running mate: James P. Mellin II Erin Murphy, state representative Running mate: Erin Maye Quade, state representative Olé Savior, perennial candidate Running mate: Chris Edman Lori Swanson, attorney general of Minnesota Running mate: Rick Nolan, U.S. representative
Withdrawn Chris Coleman, former mayor of Saint Paul Tina Liebling, state representative Rebecca Otto, Minnesota state auditor Running mate: Zarina Baber, IT professional Paul Thissen, state representative, former House minority leader, and former speaker of the House
Declined Tom Bakk, minority leader of the Minnesota Senate and candidate for governor in 2010The Timberjay. Quote: "Bakk said he had been considering his own bid for governor had the party failed to endorse a candidate, but he said the recent announcement by Republican Sen. Michelle Fischbach to resign her Senate seat to run with Tim Pawlenty helped to clarify his priorities." Mark Dayton, incumbent governor and former U.S. senator Debra Hilstrom, state representative and candidate for secretary of state in 2014 (ran for attorney general) Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (ran for re-election) Rick Nolan, U.S. representative from (ran for lieutenant governor) R. T. Rybak, former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, former mayor of Minneapolis and candidate for governor in 2010 Tina Smith, U.S. senator (ran for U.S. Senate)
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ErinMurphy LoriSwanson TimWalz Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 217 ± 6.9% 19% 29% 28% – 24%Marist CollegeMarist College July 15–19, 2018 439 ± 5.6% 11% 28% 24% 1% 37%GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC)GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC) June 25–27, 2018 602 – 17% 37% 29% 1%Tim Holden and Olé Savior with 0%, other 1% 16%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TomBakk ChrisColeman AmyKlobuchar ErinMurphy RebeccaOtto R. T.Rybak TinaSmith LoriSwanson TimWalz UndecidedSurveyUSASurveyUSA November 17–19, 2016 – – 1% 3% 25% 0% 1% 6% 1% 3% 5% 54%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ChrisColeman TinaLiebling ErinMurphy RebeccaOtto LoriSwanson PaulThissen TimWalz UndecidedMason-DixonMason-Dixon January 8–10, 2018 298 – 12% 2% 6% 9% 16% 4% 21% 30% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ErinMurphy RebeccaOtto TimWalz Other UndecidedExpedition Strategies (D-Walz)Expedition Strategies (D-Walz) April 23–26, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 3% 19% 27% 2% 49%
Straw poll
On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn would elect state convention delegates who would endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates would endorse U.S. House candidates. After the straw poll, the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).
Congressionalunit Totalattendance Chris Coleman Tina Liebling Erin Murphy Rebecca Otto Paul Thissen TimWalz Other Uncommitted 1 2,577 71 355 107 232 56 1,558 4 163 2 3,501 384 202 411 656 120 1,156 4 523 3 4,291 670 202 386 827 186 1,362 8 530 4 6,072 854 297 1,111 1,227 139 1,384 11 897 5 9,519 1,019 457 1,400 1,462 537 2,363 30 1,137 6 2,375 326 115 294 587 59 590 4 375 7 2,121 124 106 274 405 172 761 4 273 8 3,873 441 277 474 1,082 263 759 8 527 Statewide 34,329 3,889 2,011 4,457 6,478 1,532 9,933 73 4,425 Percent - 11.86% 6.13% 13.59% 19.75% 4.67% 30.29% 0.22% 13.49%
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County Commissioner, former state representative, and nominee for governor in 2014 Running mate: Donna Bergstrom, retired Marine Corps intelligence officer
Eliminated in primary Mathew Kruse Running mate: Theresa Loeffler Tim Pawlenty, former governor and candidate for president in 2012 Running mate: Michelle Fischbach, incumbent lieutenant governor
Withdrew Christopher Chamberlin (ran for U.S. House) Matt Dean, state representativeThe Associated Press, "Republican Matt Dean Is No Longer Running For Governor", WCCO, January 25, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2018. Keith Downey, former chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota and former state representative Blake Huffman, Ramsey County Commissioner David Osmek, state senator Phillip Parrish, Naval Reserve intelligence officer and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Mary Giuliani Stephens, mayor of Woodbury Running mate: Jeff Backer, state representative
Declined Sarah Anderson, state representative Michele Bachmann, former U.S. representative and candidate for president in 2012 Michelle Benson, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 Kurt Daudt, speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives (endorsed Pawlenty) Tom Emmer, U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2010 (running for re-election) Karin Housley, state senator (ran for U.S. Senate) Amy Koch, former majority leader of the Minnesota Senate Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow Mike McFadden, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Carla Nelson, state senator Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Julie Rosen, state senator (endorsed Pawlenty) Rich Stanek, Hennepin County sheriff and former state representative (ran for re-election)
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JeffJohnson MattKruse TimPawlenty Other UndecidedEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 156 ± 8.0% 34% – 43% – 23%Marist College July 15–19, 2018 340 ± 6.4% 32% – 51% 1% 16%BK Strategies (R)BK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018 439 ± 4.7% 20% 3% 54% – 23%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KurtDaudt KeithDowney TomEmmer MikeMcFadden ErikPaulsen TimPawlenty RichStanek UndecidedSurveyUSA November 17–19, 2016 – – 2% 1% 4% 2% 8% 19% 1% 64%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KurtDaudt MattDean KeithDowney JeffJohnson JulieRosen Mary G.Stephens UndecidedMason-Dixon January 8–10, 2018 218 – 12% 2% 1% 24% 4% 1% 54%
Results
Third parties and independents
Candidates
Declared Josh Welter (Libertarian Party) Chris Wright (Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party), Grassroots Party nominee for governor in 1998, 2010 and 2014
General election
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018
Debates The debate season began only three days after the primaries, with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held on Friday, August 31. +Hostnetwork/sponsorsDateLink(s)ParticipantsTimWalz (DFL)JeffJohnson (R)MPR NewsAugust 31, 2018InvitedInvitedKSTP-TVAugust 17, 2018InvitedInvitedTwin Cities PBS (Almanac)August 17, 2018InvitedInvited
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TimWalz (DFL) JeffJohnson (R) JoshWelter (L) Other UndecidedChange ResearchChange Research November 2–4, 2018 953 – 53% 41% 2% 2%Chris Wright (GLC) with 2% –Research Co.Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 1% 9%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 5.3% 49% 41% – 2% 9%St. Cloud State UniversitySt. Cloud State University October 15–30, 2018 404 –50%34% – – –Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 15–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 45% 39% 3% 2% 12%Change ResearchChange Research October 12–13, 2018 1,413 – 47% 44% 3% 4%Chris Wright (GLC) with 4% 2%Marist CollegeMarist College September 30 – October 4, 2018 637 LV ± 4.9% 51% 36% 6% <1% 6% 55% 38% – <1% 7% 860 RV ± 4.2% 49% 37% 7% <1% 7% 53% 39% – 1% 8%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon September 10–12, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 45% 36% 1% 2% 16%SurveyUSASurveyUSA September 6–8, 2018 574 ± 4.9% 47% 40% – 3% 10%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University August 17–20, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 46% 41% 1% 1%Chris Wright (GLC) with 1% 12%Emerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 40% 33% – – 27%
with Erin Murphy and Tim Pawlenty Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ErinMurphy (D) TimPawlenty (R) Other UndecidedMarist College July 15–19, 2018 876 ± 4.0% 48% 40% 2% 9%
with Lori Swanson and Tim Pawlenty Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error LoriSwanson (D) TimPawlenty (R) Other UndecidedEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 44% 36% – 21%Marist College July 15–19, 2018 876 ± 4.0% 51% 40% 2% 7%BK StrategiesBK Strategies June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 46% 41% – 13%
with Tim Walz and Tim Pawlenty Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TimWalz (D) TimPawlenty (R) Other UndecidedEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 44% 33% – 23%Marist College July 15–19, 2018 876 ± 4.0% 51% 40% 1% 8%BK Strategies June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 48% 41% – 11%
with Lori Swanson and Jeff Johnson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error LoriSwanson (D) JeffJohnson (R) UndecidedEmerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 37% 32% 31%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericDemocrat GenericRepublican UndecidedBK Strategies June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 48% 42% 10%Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota)Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota) June 15–16, 2018 717 – 46% 39% 16%
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Aitkin (largest city: Aitkin) Big Stone (largest city: Ortonville) Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo) Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake) Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids) Kittson (largest city: Hallock) Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison) Marshall (largest city: Warren) Norman (largest city: Ada) (became tied) Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls) Pine (largest city: Pine City) Pope (largest city: Glenwood) Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls) Stevens (largest city: Morris) Swift (largest city: Benson) Traverse (largest city: Wheaton) Watonwan (largest city: St. James)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Anoka (largest city: Blaine) Dakota (largest city: Lakeville) Olmsted (largest city: Rochester) Washington (largest city: Woodbury)
By congressional district Walz won five of eight congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Johnson. Each candidate won a district that elected a representative of the other party.