The 2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio.

The primary was won by the state's then governor, John Kasich.

Background In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for March 6. However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, reached only 37% of the vote and thus won only 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks. In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided to make the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.

The state of the campaign Previous contests Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.

Run-up to the election

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 15, 2016 John Kasich46.95% Donald Trump35.87% Ted Cruz13.31% Marco Rubio 2.34%, Ben Carson 0.72%, Jeb Bush 0.27%, Mike Huckabee 0.25%, Chris Christie 0.12%, Carly Fiorina 0.11%, Rick Santorum 0.07%ARG Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400March 12–13, 2016John Kasich44% Donald Trump38% Ted Cruz12% Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 4%Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 503March 11–13, 2016John Kasich40% Donald Trump35% Ted Cruz15% Marco Rubio 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4%Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 721March 8–13, 2016Donald Trump38% John Kasich38% Ted Cruz16% Marco Rubio 3%, Undecided 4%CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 798March 9–11, 2016 John Kasich33% Donald Trump33% Ted Cruz27% Marco Rubio 5%, No Preference 2%NBC News/WSJ/Marist Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 564March 4–10, 2016 John Kasich39% Donald Trump33% Ted Cruz19% Marco Rubio 6%Fox News Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 806March 5–8, 2016 John Kasich34% Donald Trump29% Ted Cruz19% Marco Rubio 7%, Undecided 5%, Other 3%, None of the above 2%Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 685March 2–7, 2016Donald Trump38% John Kasich32% Ted Cruz16% Marco Rubio 9%, Undecided 5%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 638 March 4–6, 2016Donald Trump38%John Kasich35% Ted Cruz15% Marco Rubio 5%, Undecided 5%CNN/ORC Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 359March 2–6, 2016Donald Trump41%John Kasich35% Ted Cruz15% Marco Rubio 7%Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 759 February 16–20, 2016Donald Trump31% John Kasich26% Ted Cruz21% Marco Rubio 13%, Ben Carson 5%, Someone else 0%, DK/NA 5%Baldwin Wallace University Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 440 February 11–20, 2016Donald Trump31%John Kasich29% Ted Cruz11% Marco Rubio 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Don't Know 8%Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433 September 25 – October 5, 2015Donald Trump23% Ben Carson18% John Kasich13% Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Would not vote 2%, DK/NA 6%Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 371 August 7–18, 2015John Kasich27% Donald Trump21% Ted Cruz7% Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know 11%Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 413 June 4–15, 2015John Kasich19% Jeb Bush9% Scott Walker8% Marco Rubio 7%, Rand Paul 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Rick Perry 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1%, Don't know 17%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 411 June 4–7, 2015John Kasich19% Ben Carson13% Scott Walker13% Jeb Bush 12%, Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Someone Else/Not Sure 8%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 404 March 17–28, 2015John Kasich20% Ted Cruz9% Mike Huckbee9% Scott Walker 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%John Kasich22% Scott Walker10% Ted Cruz9% Mike Huckabee 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Perry 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 17%John Kasich22% Ted Cruz11% Jeb Bush9% Ben Carson 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 337 January 22 – February 1, 2015Mitt Romney15%John Kasich11%Scott Walker10% Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Ted Cruz 5%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 18%John Kasich14%Scott Walker11%Jeb Bush10% Rand Paul 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 20%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 300 April 14–15, 2014Mike Huckabee17%Rand Paul15%Jeb Bush13% Chris Christie 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, John Kasich 10%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 4%, Undecided 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 357 Aug. 16–19, 2013Chris Christie17%Rand Paul17% Jeb Bush10% Marco Rubio 9%, John Kasich 8%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Someone Else/Undecided 17% The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11. The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election. Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.

Results

Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.

References