2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election

The 2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of South Carolina. Incumbent Republican Governor Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley resigned to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, ran for election to a full term. The primary was held on June 12, with the Democrats nominating State Representative James E. Smith Jr. McMaster failed to win a majority of the vote, and then defeated John Warren in the Republican runoff on June 26. In the general election, McMaster defeated Smith, winning election to a full term.

Republicans won their fifth straight gubernatorial election in the state, their longest such streak in history.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Henry McMaster, incumbent governor Running mate: Pamela Evette, businesswoman

Defeated in runoff John Warren, businessman Running mate: Pat McKinney, businessman

Defeated in primary Kevin Bryant, incumbent lieutenant governor Yancey McGill, former Democratic lieutenant governor and former Democratic state senator Catherine Templeton, attorney, former director of the Department of Health and Environmental Control and former director of the Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation Running mate: Walt Wilkins III, Greenville County Solicitor

Declined Tom Davis, state senator Jeff Duncan, U.S. representative Mikee Johnson, businessman and former chairman of the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce (endorsed Catherine Templeton) Tim Scott, U.S. senator Joe Taylor, former South Carolina secretary of commerce Billy Wilkins, former chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit Alan Wilson, attorney general (ran for re-election)

Endorsements

First round Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Henry McMaster Kevin Bryant Yancey McGill Catherine Templeton John Warren Other UndecidedFabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren) May 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 33% 5% 2% 17% 19% – 24%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght May 29–31, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 37% 4% 3% 25% 20% – 11%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght April 3–5, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 46% 6% 4% 22% 1% – 22%TargetPoint/GQRTargetPoint/GQR March 10–17, 2018 397 – 41% 5% 3% 10% 2% – 35%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) November 29 – December 30, 2017 2,223 ± 2.1% 40% 11% 3% 8% – 10% 28%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon December 6–10, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 51% 8% 1% 21% – – 19%South Carolina Public AffairsSouth Carolina Public Affairs October 10–11, 2017 633 ± 4.0% 33% 5% 5% 7% – – 50%

Debate + 2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican Republican RepublicanKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Kevin Bryant Henry McMaster Yancey McGill Catherine Templeton John Warren1 Jun. 6, 2018 The Post and CourierSouth Carolina ETVSouth Carolina Public Radio Charles Bierbauer YouTube

Results

Runoff Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error HenryMcMaster JohnWarren UndecidedThe Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) June 19–21, 2018 1,650 ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren) June 19–20, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 46% 13%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) June 13–14, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 60% 31% 9%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee James Smith, state representative Running mate: Mandy Powers Norrell, state representative

Defeated in primary Phil Noble, business and technology consultant and candidate for lieutenant governor in 1994 Running mate: Gloria Bromell Tinubu, former Atlanta, Georgia, city councilwoman, former Georgia state representative and nominee for SC-07 in 2012 and 2014 Marguerite Willis, attorney Running mate: John Scott, state senator

Declined Steve Benjamin, Mayor of Columbia Marlon Kimpson, state senator Inez Tenenbaum, former State Superintendent of Education, former chair of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error PhilNoble JamesSmith MargueriteWillis Other UndecidedTarget-Insyght April 3–5, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 27% 27% 21% – 25%TargetPoint/GQR March 10–17, 2018 296 – 7% 18% 11% – 57%The Trafalgar Group (R) November 29 – December 30, 2017 2,223 ± 2.1% 25% 20% – 21% 34%

Debate + 2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election Democratic primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic DemocraticKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Phil Noble James Smith Marguerite Willis1 May 15, 2018 College of Charleston,WACH, WCIV-TV, WLOS,WMYA-TV & WPDE-TV Tessa Spencer Adams YouTube

Results

Independents and third parties Declared Phil Cheney (Independent), former Anderson City Councilman, candidate for SC-03 in 2006 and write-in candidate for SC-05 in 2017

Failed nomination Martin Barry (American Party), medication researcher, nomination declined by the American Party Running mate: James Cartee, theater director

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error HenryMcMaster (R) JamesSmith (D) UndecidedThe Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29–31, 2018 3,792 ± 1.6% 54% 38% 8%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) October 12–14, 2018 4,830 ± 2.1% 56% 32% 12%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) September 24 – October 2, 2018 2,692 ± 1.9% 51% 37% 13%The Tarrance Group (R-RGA)The Tarrance Group (R-RGA) August 11–13, 2018 601 ± 4.1% 52% 41% 7%Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Smith) August 6–9, 2018 605 ± 4.1% 47% 43% 10%

Results

By county CountyHenry McMasterRepublicanJames SmithDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Abbeville5,45163.6%3,11336.3%80.1%2,33827.3%8,572Aiken36,80161.7%22,75438.2%570.1%14,04723.5%59,612Allendale60821.0%2,28979.0%10.0% -1,681 -58.0%2,898Anderson43,41269.0%19,38630.8%950.2%24,02638.2%62,893Bamberg1,55235.4%2,82864.5%20.0% -1,276 -29.1%4,382Barnwell3,73451.2%3,54948.7%60.1%1852.5%7,289Beaufort38,39954.5%31,97145.4%630.1%6,4289.1%70,433Berkeley35,10753.5%30,45246.4%1100.2%4,6557.1%65,669Calhoun2,95249.6%2,99050.3%60.1%-38-0.7%5,948Charleston62,64242.5%84,63457.4%1750.1% -21,992 -14.9%147,451Cherokee11,73070.2%4,96429.7%170.1%6,76640.5%16,711Chester5,66552.1%5,19547.8%30.0%4704.3%10,863Chesterfield6,73056.2%5,24143.8%60.1%1,48912.4%11,977Clarendon5,72247.3%6,36552.6%30.0%-643-5.3%12,090Colleton6,89152.1%6,32147.8%140.1%5704.3%13,226Darlington11,87150.9%11,43649.0%80.1%4351.9%23,315Dillon4,05249.5%4,14150.5%10.0%-89-1.0%8,194Dorchester27,56354.2%23,27545.7%580.1%4,2888.5%50,896Edgefield5,63660.0%3,74739.9%90.1%1,88920.1%9,392Fairfield3,40936.7%5,86563.2%50.1% -2,456 -26.5%9,279Florence22,94750.4%22,53349.5%360.1%4140.9%45,516Georgetown14,08354.5%11,76045.4%150.1%2,3239.1%25,858Greenville102,19557.9%74,00741.9%3690.2%28,18816.0%176,571Greenwood13,97360.4%9,14039.5%340.1%4,83320.9%23,147Hampton2,55838.6%4,05161.2%150.2% -1,493 -22.6%6,624Horry71,98565.1%38,57434.9%790.1%33,41130.2%110,638Jasper4,34646.4%5,00253.4%120.1%-656-7.0%9,360Kershaw13,88159.1%9,58840.8%280.1%4,29318.3%23,497Lancaster19,55459.5%13,29740.4%210.1%6,25719.1%32,872Laurens12,89963.4%7,41536.4%340.2%5,48427.0%20,348Lee2,17434.1%4,19065.8%40.1% -2,016 -31.7%6,368Lexington62,54462.8%36,85437.0%1530.2%25,69025.8%99,551Marion3,96338.0%6,45061.9%80.1% -2,487 -23.9%10,421Marlboro3,16640.8%4,59459.1%70.1% -1,428 -18.3%7,767McCormick2,32752.5%2,10347.5%10.0%2245.0%4,431Newberry7,64458.7%5,37441.2%120.1%2,27017.5%13,030Oconee19,59971.1%7,94528.8%380.1%11,65442.3%27,582Orangeburg9,22230.1%21,40269.8%190.1% -12,180 -39.7%30,643Pickens28,13972.9%10,39326.9%820.2%17,74646.0%38,614Richland41,79329.5%99,47670.3%1690.1% -57,683 -40.8%141,438Saluda4,51665.7%2,35634.3%40.1%2,16031.4%6,876Spartanburg58,44261.6%36,26438.2%1680.2%22,17823.4%94,874Sumter14,57842.3%19,83057.6%180.1% -5,252 -15.3%34,426Union5,20858.2%3,72841.7%70.1%1,48016.5%8,943Williamsburg3,77432.7%7,76967.2%110.1% -3,995 -34.5%11,554York55,90558.5%39,57141.4%540.1%16,33417.1%95,530Totals921,34253.96%784,18245.92%2,0450.12%137,1608.04%1,707,569 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Darlington (largest city: Hartsville)

By congressional district McMaster won six of seven congressional districts, including one that elected a Democratic representative.

District McMaster Smith Representative52%48%Mark SanfordJoe Cunningham 54% 46%Joe Wilson 67% 33%Jeff Duncan59%41%Trey GowdyWilliam Timmons 57% 43%Ralph Norman 30% 70%Jim Clyburn 57% 43%Tom Rice

2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election

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