Opinion polling for the 2015 Polish parliamentary election

In the run up to the 2015 Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 9 October 2011, to 23 October 2015.

Opinion polls Graphical summary

First round 2015

Dates of Polling Polling Firm/Link PO PiS PSL SLD TR Kukiz'15 .N KORWiN Razem Others/Undecided Lead 25 October 2015 Election results 24.1 37.6 5.1 7.6 8.8 7.6 4.8 3.6 0.8 13.5 25 October Late pollsIpsos 23.637.7 5.2 7.5 8.7 7.7 4.9 3.9 0.8 14.1 25 October Exit pollsIpsos 23.439.1 5.2 6.6 9.0 7.1 4.9 3.9 0.8 15.7 22–23 October IBRiS 22.437.4 5.5 8.9 10.2 7.8 3.7 3.4 0.7 15.0 22 October IBRiS 24.435.3 4.7 8.1 6.7 6.2 4.4 2.5 7.7 10.9 21–22 October Estymator 2337 6 8 8 6 6 5 1 14 20–22 October Millward Brown 2032 5 9 6 8 6 1 13 12 17–22 October Ipsos 22.138.3 6.5 8.1 12.5 6.6 3.5 1.7 0.7 16.2 21 October IBRiS 23.037.0 5.1 8.9 5.9 6.4 4.1 3.9 5.7 14.0 21 October TNS Poland 24.137.8 4.8 8.6 9.1 6.6 4.9 3.5 0.6 13.7 15–21 October CBOS 2536 5 6 6 5 4 1 11 11 19–20 October TNS Poland 26.332.5 4.8 7.5 10.4 6.1 5.3 0.3 7.1 6.2 19 October IBRiS 2236 6 11 6 6 4 1 9 14 16–19 October Dobra Opinia 24.539.5 6.0 9 7.5 6.0 4.5 2.0 1.0 15.0 16 October IBRiS 22.935.3 5.5 10.7 5.3 7.1 3.8 0.9 8.5 12.4 14–15 October IPSOS 2236 5 8 8 4 5 1 11 14 13–15 October Millward Brown 2232 5 10 5 7 5 1 13 10 7–15 October CBOS 2734 3 6 8 7 3 1 11 7 14 October TNS Poland 30.138.9 5.5 7.9 5.5 6.7 4.7 0.0 0.7 8.8 13–14 October Estymator 2440 6 9 6 4 7 1 3 16 13 October IBRiS 20.336.2 6.4 11.1 5.9 8.4 3.1 0.5 7.9 15.9 8 October IBRiS 22.235.8 6.7 9.3 6.2 8.6 2.3 0.2 8.1 13.6 7–8 October Ipsos 2536 6 8 7 5 3 0 10 11 7–8 October Millward Brown 1935 5 11 5 8 5 1 12 16 7 October TNS Poland 27.742 3.78.8 6 8 3.1 0.0 0.7 14.3 2–7 October TNS Poland 2436 4 4 6 4 3 0 19 12 6 October IBRiS 23.833.4 6.69.5 5.8 9.3 3.2 0.0 8.5 9.4 30 Sep – 5 Oct Dobra Opinia 25.838.2 5.38.6 9.2 6.6 4.7 1.3 12.4 2–3 October IBRiS 2434 6 10 8 9 3 1 5 10 1 October IBRiS 23.235.6 6.2 9.3 7 8.1 2.5 0.5 7.6 12.4 30 Sept. – 1 Oct Millward Brown 2232 4 12 7 6 5 3 9 10 29 September IBRiS 24.336 6.6 7.3 6.9 8.1 3 0.7 7.1 11.7 28–29 September Estymator 2642 6 7 5 5 5 1 3 16 24–25 September PressMix 2144 6 6 4 5 2 2 10 23 24 September IBRiS 27.337.6 5 7.8 5 6 3.6 0.6 7 10.3 23–24 September IPSOS 2638 6 5 7 6 31 8 12 17–23 September CBOS 3034 5 5 7 6 41 8 4 22 September IBRiS 25.536.9 5.8 8.3 4.7 7.3 3.60.9 7 11.4 17–21 September Dobra Opinia 25.739.2 5.8 8.1 9.8 5.5 4.71.2 0 13.5 19–20 September Millward Brown 2233 6 8 5 6 72 11 11 16–20 September 2538.4 5 12.8 6.7 4.5 4.20.9 2.5 13.4 18–19 September IBRiS 2239 5 8 4 6 – – 16 17 13 September IBRiS 21.836.4 5.2 8.8 6.1 5.7 3.01.3 13.1 14.6 9–13 September ewybory.eu 24.237.1 5.5 15.3 5.5 4 6.30.1 2.1 12.9 10–11 September IPSOS 2435 5 6 9 4 4 – 13 11 4–9 September TNS Poland 2338 2 3 7 2 2 – 23 15 7 September Millward Brown 2538 5 9 6 7 5 – ? 13 3–7 September GfK Polonia 31.143.3 3.9 5.5 6.8 2.7 3.2 0.1 3.4 12.2 4–6 September Millward Brown 2536 4 10 6 7 3 1 10 11 4–5 September IBRiS 2338 5 8 6 5 3 – 12 15 28 August IBRiS 1939.1 5.2 8.3 7 5.6 2.5 0.4 3.7 20.1 26–27 August Estymator 2643 7 8 4 4 2 – 6 17 17–24 August CBOS 2736 4 4 12 4 1 – 11 9 24 August Millward Brown 2737 4 11 6 5 4 – 5 10 17–23 August ewybory.eu 21.246.9 5 12 4.5 2.9 2.80.1 4.6 25.7 20 August IBRIS 1940.4 5.4 9.5 4.7 6.5 2.2 – 12.3 21.4 15 August IBRIS 2436 6 8 6 6 01.1 14 14 14 August Estymator 2841 6 6 6 4 2 – 7 13 14 August Arianda 25.436.1 3.9 3.8 0 13.5 4.1 2.9 – 10.1 10.7 7–12 August TNS Poland 2241 4 4 11 1 2 – 14 19 10 August Millward Brown 2635 3 8 12 5 3 – 9 9 6–10 August GfK Polonia 29.942.3 4.1 4.2 9.8 2.3 3.8 – 3.6 12.4 8 August TNS Poland 21.934.4 – 7.4 10.1 5.2 0 – ? 12.5 3–8 August ewybory.eu 24.545.1 4.4 10.5 5.5 1.8 3.2 – 3.7 20.6 3 August IBRiS 2335 6 7 7 5 0 – 17 12 24–31 July ewybory.eu 26.740.3 4 9.2 8.5 1.8 4.3 – 4.1 13.6 30 July Estymator 2943 5 4 9 4 2 – 3 14 29 July GfK Polonia 3047 3.7 1.1 10.5 1 2.2 – 4.5 17 25 July Arianda 2337 4 6 0 16 4 5 – 5 14 18 July IBRiS 2435 4 3 1 13 6 1 – 1 11 17 July TNS Poland 2337 3 3 0 14 1 11 2 14 16 July Millward Brown 2333 5 7 18 5 41 5 10 16 July Estymator 2843 5 5 0 10 4 2 – ? 15 8 July CBOS 2936 3 3 1 11 4 31 10 7 7 July IBRiS 2633 4 2 0 14 6 3 – 2 7 5 July Millward Brown 2534 5 6 16 6 4 – 1 9 2 July TNS Poland 2738 2 3 13 0 3 – 1 11 29 June GfK Polonia 28.843.1 3.2 2.6 0.3 15.1 2.1 2 – 0.5 14.3 27 June Estymator 2536 6 4 1 20 – 2 – ? 11 23 June Dobra Opinia 25.837.2 4 3.5 0.9 19.3 4.6 3.8 – 0.9 11.4 24 June IBRiS 2435.5 4.2 2.9 0.7 18.3 5.2 1.6 – ? 11.5 23 June Millward Brown 2333 5 4 1 19 8 3 – 3 10 21 June IBRiS 2628 5 4 0 21 5 2 – ? 2 17 June TNS Poland 2034 3 4 1 17 1 2 – 1 14 17 June CBOS 2531 4 4 1 19 4 2 – 8 6 11 June Estymator 1933 4 4 2 29 3 2 – ? 4 11 June Millward Brown 1930 3 5 3 24 7 4 – 1 6 9 June TNS Poland 2432 3 2 0 20 3 2 – 1 8 8 June IBRiS 21 24 3 3 –24.2 8 3 – ? 0.2 4 June ewybory.eu 19.335.1 2.1 4.6 2.2 28 2.5 4.1 – 0.8 7.1 3 June CBOS 3133 1 4 1 14 3 2 – 0 2 1 June Millward Brown 1725 3 4 2 20 10 4 – 14 5 27–28 May Estymator 2036 4 5 1 25 4 1 – 1 11 May 24, 2015 Presidential elections - II Round 48.45 51.55 - - - - - - - - 3.1 22–23 May IBRiS2929 4 3 – 10 – 4 – 1 Tie 21 May IBRiS 22.429.7 3.2 4.0 – 21.3 5.7 – – ? 4.3 14–20 May CBOS 3435 5 4 2 4 – 5 – 1 1 14 May Millward Brown2525 4 3 1 20 5 3 – ? Tie 9–14 May TNS Poland 2835 4 8 2 – – 4 – 16 7 14 May Millward Brown34 33 3 5 – – – 4 – 15+5 1 May 10, 2015 Presidential elections - I Round 33.8 34.8 1.6 2.4 1.4 20.8 - 3.3 - 1.9 1.0 8–9 May IBRiS37 35 5 5 1 - - 3 - 14 2 28–29 April TNS Poland 34 27 4 6 2 - - 5 - 22 7 28 April Millward Brown 35 31 3 6 2 - - 7 - 16 4 24–25 April IBRiS 37 32 5 4 – - - 5 - 17 5 16–22 April CBOS 36 30 6 7 2 - - 6 1 13 6 14–16 April Estymator 40 34 8 7 2 - - 4 - 5 6 11–16 April TNS Poland 35 30 6 6 1 - - 4 - 18 5 9–13 April GfK Polonia 44.7 36.3 4.4 5.6 1.0 - - 2.5 – 5.5 8.4 13 April Millward Brown 35 31 5 7 3 - - 8 – 11 4 April IBRiS 36 31 6 8 3 - - 4 – 12 5 7–8 April TNS Poland 38 30 5 6 1 - - 4 - 16 8 7 April IBRiS 38.2 33.2 5.2 6.3 1.7 - - 4.8 - 5.8 5 30 March Millward Brown 3535 5 6 3 - - 5 – 11 Tie 27–28 March IBRiS 36.3 30.2 7.0 6.8 1.8 - - 5.4 – 12.5 6.1 16–18 March Estymator 38 34 8 9 3 - - 5 - 3 4 13–18 March TNS Poland 3032 5 8 2 - - 2 - 21 2 11–18 March CBOS 42 29 5 7 1 - - 3 - 13 13 16 March Millward Brown 3234 4 11 4 - - 4 - 11 2 12–16 March GfK Polonia 46.1 34.6 6.7 4.6 0.4 - - 1.9 - 5.7 11.5 13–14 March IBRiS 34.5 31.3 7.6 8.3 0.8 - - 2.4 - 15.1 3.2 10–11 March TNS Poland 36 34 6 5 1 - - 3 - 15 2 5–11 March CBOS 46 27 5 6 1 - - 4 - 11 19 27 February IBRiS 37.0 32.8 7.3 7.4 1.5 - - 3.3 - 10.7 4.2 13–18 February Millward Brown 3435 5 8 1 - - 6 - 11 1 13–18 February TNS Poland 33 27 8 9 1 - - - - 21 6 15–17 February Estymator 39 32 11 10 2 - - 4 - 2 7 16 February Millward Brown 31 30 6 10 4 - - 5 - 14 1 12–16 February GfK Polonia 38.9 38.0 8.9 6.5 1.3 - - 1.7 - 4.7 0.9 5–11 February CBOS 38 28 11 8 3 - – – – 12 10 4–5 February TNS Poland 34 32 9 7 2 - - 1 - 15 2 30–31 January IBRiS 34.2 32.9 7.6 8.4 1.6 - - 3.5 - 11.8 1.3 16–21 January TNS Poland 31 27 8 11 2 - - - - 21 4 15–18 January GfK Polonia 38.5 37.7 6.3 8.3 1.5 - - - - 7.7 0.8 16–17 January IBRiS 35.6 34.7 7.8 10.2 1 - - - - 11.7 0.9 8–14 January CBOS 40 29 7 6 0 - - - - 18 11 12–13 January TNS Poland 3333 6 8 1 - - - - 19 Tie 12 January Millward Brown 3434 9 9 0 - - - - 14 Tie 2–3 January IBRiS 33.9 32.0 6.8 5.9 1.9 - - - - 19.5 1.9

2014

Dates of Polling Polling Firm/Link PO PiS SLD PSL KNP TR SP PRZP Others/Undecided Lead 18–19 December IBRiS 32.8 29.8 5.9 7.7 6.1 1.2 (PiS) (PiS) 16.5 3 10–11 December TNS Poland 3134 5 8 5 3 (PiS) (PiS) 14 3 4–11 December CBOS 43 28 7 9 4 1 (PiS) (PiS) 8 15 5–10 December TNS Poland 34 29 9 9 3 2 (PiS) (PiS) 14 5 4–7 December GfK Polonia 38.240 7 7.7 1 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.8 5–6 December IBRiS 33 30 8 8 5 – (PiS) (PiS) 16 3 20–23 November GfK Polonia 38.2 35.9 6.6 8.1 3.9 2.3 1.6 3.4 2.3 21–22 November IBRiS36.3 34.1 7.1 7.6 5.6 1.0 (PiS) (PiS) 8.3 2.2 18–21 November Millward Brown33 30 10 9 3 2 (PiS) (PiS) 13 3 16 November Local election results 26.326.9 8.8 23.9 3.9 1 (PiS) (PiS) 9.2 0.6 6–16 November CBOS38 27 9 8 4 1 (PiS) (PiS) 13 11 12–13 November TNS Poland32 28 7 5 5 2 (PiS) (PiS) 21 4 7–13 November TNS Poland 2629 11 9 3 2 (PiS) (PiS) 20 3 10–12 November Estymator38 35 8 8 7 1 (PiS) (PiS) 3 3 7–8 November IBRiS33 30 11 8 4 1 (PiS) (PiS) 13 3 5 November TNS Poland32 27 9 5 5 1 (PiS) (PiS) 21 5 17–18 October IBRiS 33 33 9 5 4 1 (PiS) (PiS) 15 Tie 16–19 October Millward Brown34 30 11 6 4 2 (PiS) (PiS) 13 4 9–15 October CBOS 34 34 9 6 7 2 (PiS) (PiS) 8 Tie 3–8 October TNS Poland28 27 14 9 3 2 (PiS) (PiS) 17 1 2–6 October GfK Polonia 37.637.8 8.4 7 3 1.1 1.5 3.6 0.2 3–4 October IBRiS34 32 10 6 4 1 (PiS) (PiS) 13 2 2 October TNS Poland34 28 8 6 5 2 (PiS) (PiS) 17 6 19–20 September IBRiS 33 33 11 6 5 1 1 1 9 Tie 11–17 September CBOS38 33 6 7 6 2 (PiS) (PiS) 8 5 5–9 September TNS Poland 2731 10 7 5 4 (PiS) (PiS) 16 4 5–8 September GfK Polonia 37.841.5 7.4 4.7 3.9 1.3 0.8 2.6 3.7 4–5 September TNS Poland34 28 9 5 5 2 (PiS) (PiS) 17 6 2 September Millward Brown 3132 9 5 7 4 (PiS) (PiS) 12 1 19–25 August CBOS 2632 9 6 7 4 (PiS) (PiS) 16 6 22–23 August IBRiS 2533 12 5 7 3 2 1 12 8 8–14 August TNS Poland 2631 12 7 3 2 (PiS) (PiS) 19 5 8–9 August IBRiS 2433 11 6 6 2 1 3 14 9 25–26 July IBRiS 2536 9 4 6 2 1 3 14 11 25 July GfK Polonia 27.742.4 9.6 5.9 5.4 2.2 1.3 1.1 4.4 14.7 18 July TNS Poland 2335 8 4 5 2 2 2 19 12 10–13 July Millward Brown 2633 8 4 10 2 1 2 14 7 11–12 July IBRiS 2531 11 5 8 3 3 2 12 6 10 July CBOS 29 24 8 6 6 2 1 2 22 5 27–28 June IBRiS 2432 10 5 11 2 3 2 11 8 23 June TNS Poland 2431 8 5 10 4 2 2 13 7 17 June Millward Brown 2532 10 4 8 4 0 1 16 7 13–14 June IBRiS 2832 9 7 5 2 3 2 12 4 6–11 June TNS Poland 2836 10 5 4 2 2 1 12 8 5–11 June CBOS 32 24 5 6 5 3 1 1 23 8 30–31 May IBRiS 2630 11 5 6 2 3 2 15 4 27 May IBRiS 2830 11 7 7 2 2 3 10 2 25 May European Parliament election 32.1 31.8 9.5 6.8 7.1 3.6 4 3.2 1.9 0.3 24–25 May IBRiS 2530 13 5 5 3 3 2 14 5 9–14 May TNS Poland 2532 9 6 3 5 1 2 17 7 7–14 May CBOS 27 23 9 4 5 3 1 2 26 4 13 May IBRiS 2830 11 5 7 4 2 2 11 2 8–10 May IBRiS 29 29 12 5 6 3 3 2 11 Tie 29 April IBRiS 2628 12 6 5 4 2 3 14 2 24–25 April IBRiS 2530 13 5 5 3 3 2 14 2 14 April IBRiS 2628 12 5 4 5 2 3 15 2 8 April Millward Brown 31 29 8 7 6 7 – – 12 2 4–9 April TNS Poland 2932 10 5 2 2 2 2 16 3 3–9 April CBOS 28 21 7 5 5 1 1 3 29 7 2–3 April TNS Poland 31 30 12 6 6 6 3 3 3 1 1 April IBRiS 2831 11 5 2 4 2 1 16 3 20–21 March Estymator 36 33 12 5 2 4 2 5 1 3 18 March IBRiS 2729 11 5 2 4 2 1 19 5 6–12 March CBOS 26 24 7 4 3 3 2 2 29 2 7–8 March IBRiS 2530 11 5 5 3 2 1 18 5 6–7 March TNS Poland 2631 8 5 3 5 2 3 17 5 4 March IBRiS 2531 12 6 2 6 2 2 14 6 18 February IBRiS 2330 12 4 3 5 3 2 18 7 6–12 February CBOS 2526 8 4 4 3 2 2 26 1 6–7 February TNS Poland 2629 10 3 4 8 3 3 14 3 4 February IBRiS 2432 12 5 2 4 1 4 16 8 24–26 January Millward Brown 2432 10 7 4 7 1 2 13 8 21 January IBRiS 2329 13 6 2 5 2 3 17 6 15–16 January Estymator 33.5 31.6 13.9 8.2 1.9 3.3 1.7 5.4 0.5 1.9 9–15 January CBOS 2425 8 5 3 3 2 3 27 1 10–11 January IBRiS 2729 14 5 – 2 0 3 20 2 6 January IBRiS 2429 12 6 – 3 1 – 25 5

2013