The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was a massive upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.
Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Forums and debates
March 2016 debate in Flint
On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis. The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.
March 2016 forum in Detroit
The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel. The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.
Opinion polling
Results
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016 District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates 1 6 28,860 44,359 73,219 2 4 2 5 26,090 39,834 65,924 2 3 3 5 28,441 45,282 73,723 2 3 4 5 24,928 35,597 60,525 2 3 5 7 48,622 42,755 91,377 4 3 6 5 28,265 39,157 67,422 2 3 7 5 29,186 36,019 65,205 2 3 8 5 35,205 46,969 82,174 2 3 9 6 48,570 50,903 99,473 3 3 10 5 28,314 33,710 62,024 2 3 11 6 39,732 45,054 84,786 3 3 12 7 50,157 58,892 109,049 3 4 13 9 71,235 37,028 108,263 6 3 14 9 88,494 42,608 131,102 6 3 Total 85 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 41 44 PLEO 17 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 8 9 At Large 28 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 14 14 Gr. Total 130 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 63 67 Total vote 1,205,552 48.26% 49.68% Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial
Results by county CountyClinton%Sanders%Others%TotalsTurnout (%)Margin (%) Alcona 46348.74% 455 47.89%323.37%95010.29%-0.85% Alger 38437.07% 622 60.04%302.90%1,03614.41%22.97% Allegan 3,51138.01% 5,569 60.28%1581.71%9,23811.33%22.27% Alpena 1,10244.22% 1,347 54.05%431.73%2,49210.77%9.83% Antrim 86736.06% 1,491 62.02%461.91%2,40412.04%25.96% Arenac 59546.12% 663 51.40%322.48%1,29010.74%5.28% Baraga 27040.30% 371 55.37%294.33%67010.54%15.07% Barry 1,73635.40% 3,078 62.77%901.84%4,904~11.04%27.37% Bay 5,93745.94% 6,363 49.24%6224.81%12,92216.37%3.30% Benzie 85333.48% 1,650 64.76%451.77%2,54817.30%31.28% Berrien 6,69851.54% 5,968 45.93%3292.53%12,99510.40% -5.61% Branch 1,01043.44% 1,246 53.59%692.97%2,3257.50%10.15% Calhoun 5,23146.36% 5,812 51.51%2402.13%11,28311.41%5.15% Cass 1,65748.37% 1,684 49.15%852.48%3,426~8.60%0.78% Charlevoix 1,04436.68% 1,730 60.79%722.53%2,84613.11%24.11% Cheboygan 1,01042.62% 1,318 55.61%421.77%2,37011.33%12.99% Chippewa 1,23039.82% 1,793 58.04%702.27%3,09312.87%18.22% Clare 1,09045.76% 1,239 52.02%532.23%2,38210.33%6.26% Clinton 3,40242.16% 4,496 55.72%1712.12%8,06914.88%13.56% Crawford 49442.33% 631 54.07%423.60%1,1679.91%11.74% Delta 1,40943.34% 1,705 52.45%1374.21%3,251~11.22%9.11% Dickinson 90843.49% 1,075 51.48%1055.03%2,0889.58%7.99% Eaton 5,86643.99% 7,125 53.43%3442.58%13,33516.81%9.44% Emmet 1,36933.91% 2,589 64.13%791.96%4,03714.51%30.22% Genesee 31,36651.73% 28,171 46.46%1,0971.81%60,63418.67% -5.27% Gladwin 98546.29% 1,083 50.89%602.82%2,128~10.18%4.60% Gogebic 67844.84% 790 52.25%442.91%1,51211.03%7.41% Grand Traverse 4,14033.18% 8,091 64.84%2481.99%12,47917.43%31.66% Gratiot 1,18538.87% 1,812 59.43%521.71%3,04911.77%20.56% Hillsdale 97740.12% 1,380 56.57%783.20%2,4357.54%16.45% Houghton 1,10934.78% 2,039 63.94%411.29%3,189~13.18%29.16% Huron 1,05045.99% 1,184 51.86%492.15%2,283~9.13%5.87% Ingham 18,34743.66% 22,986 54.70%6871.63%42,02021.61%11.04% Ionia 1,49133.99% 2,812 64.11%831.89%4,38610.29%30.12% Iosco 1,07746.08% 1,202 51.43%582.48%2,33711.17%5.35% Iron 52748.30% 546 50.05%181.65%1,09111.41%1.75% Isabella 2,03233.18% 4,024 65.71%681.11%6,12414.68%32.53% Jackson 5,28842.70% 6,804 54.95%2912.35%12,38311.28%12.25% Kalamazoo 12,61137.91% 20,162 60.61%4921.48%33,26517.75%22.70% Kalkaska 59036.53% 987 61.11%382.35%1,615~11.21%24.58% Kent 26,03236.85% 43,444 61.49%1,1731.66%70,64916.20%24.64% Keweenaw 12839.75% 188 58.39%61.86%322~16.93%18.64% Lake 54850.09% 514 46.98%322.93%1,094~12.12% -3.11% Lapeer 3,32540.39% 4,650 56.49%2573.12%8,23212.58%16.10% Leelanau 1,45937.67% 2,360 60.93%541.39%3,87319.77%23.26% Lenawee 3,45543.72% 4,256 53.85%1922.43%7,90311.04%10.13% Livingston 6,70538.12% 10,435 59.32%4512.56%17,59112.47%21.20% Luce 16735.38% 291 61.65%142.97%47211.04%26.27% Mackinac 50042.77% 633 54.15%363.08%1,16911.92%11.38% Macomb 47,59948.80% 46,248 47.42%3,6893.78%97,536~15.80% -1.38% Manistee 1,12039.58% 1,646 58.16%642.26%2,83014.23%18.58% Marquette 3,18835.57% 5,530 61.70%2452.73%8,96318.30%26.13% Mason 1,22340.54% 1,741 57.71%531.76%3,01713.44%17.17% Mecosta 1,17338.88% 1,768 58.60%762.52%3,017~11.16%19.72% Menominee 83548.69% 805 46.94%754.37%1,7159.04% -1.75% Midland 3,09739.81% 4,568 58.71%1151.48%7,780~12.04%18.90% Missaukee 40139.08% 591 57.60%343.31%1,0269.66%18.52% Monroe 6,71647.22% 6,842 48.11%6654.68%14,22312.31%0.88% Montcalm 1,68136.81% 2,762 60.49%1232.69%4,56610.91%23.68% Montmorency 39248.64% 383 47.52%313.85%80610.23% -1.12% Muskegon 8,80744.51% 10,456 52.84%5242.65%19,78716.01%8.33% Newaygo 1,29536.49% 2,155 60.72%992.79%3,54910.11%24.23% Oakland 92,30051.29% 84,163 46.77%3,1931.77%179,65619.40% -4.52% Oceana 79138.21% 1,237 59.76%422.03%2,07010.86%21.55% Ogemaw 86246.24% 926 49.68%764.08%1,86411.48%3.44% Ontonagon 32744.31% 362 49.05%496.64%738~13.03%4.74% Osceola 67040.39% 953 57.44%362.17%1,659~9.71%17.05% Oscoda 27344.75% 315 51.64%223.61%6109.23%6.89% Otsego 78637.95% 1,228 59.30%572.75%2,07110.07%21.35% Ottawa 7,68734.43% 14,333 64.20%3071.38%22,32711.47%29.77% Presque Isle 59247.70% 606 48.83%433.46%1,24111.59%1.13% Roscommon 1,16347.28% 1,187 48.25%1104.47%2,46011.46%0.97% Saginaw 12,49055.28% 9,676 42.83%4281.89%22,59415.03% -12.45% St. Clair 5,97340.46% 8,347 56.54%4443.01%14,764~12.04%16.08% St. Joseph 1,38237.62% 2,219 60.40%731.99%3,674~8.49%22.78% Sanilac 1,16042.00% 1,485 53.77%1174.24%2,7629.53%11.77% Schoolcraft 31245.75% 345 50.59%253.67%68210.22%4.84% Shiawassee 3,03139.35% 4,452 57.80%2192.84%7,70214.28%18.45% Tuscola 1,98442.58% 2,532 54.35%1433.07%4,65911.52%11.77% Van Buren 2,48439.69% 3,656 58.41%1191.90%6,25911.34%18.72% Washtenaw 30,02243.69% 38,062 55.39%6320.92%68,71625.67%11.70% Wayne 165,81960.09% 105,487 38.23%4,6501.69%275,95621.13% -21.86% Wexford 90932.91% 1,793 64.92%602.17%2,76211.14%32.01%Total 582,45248.24%599,723 49.67% 25,2222.09%1,207,397~12.67%1.43%
Results by congressional district District Sanders Clinton 59.09% 38.44% 59.24% 38.80% 60.38% 37.92% 57.48% 40.26% 45.77% 52.05% 57.03% 41.17% 53.72% 43.53% 56.00% 41.97% 49.75% 47.47% 52.32% 43.95% 52.11% 45.95% 53.09% 45.22% 33.74% 64.92% 32.10% 66.66%
Analysis Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC. Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states, such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.
Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband, were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton. Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."
Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."
Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.
Alongside Wisconsin, Michigan was among the two "Blue Wall" states won by Bernie Sanders in the primary election that Donald Trump would ultimately flip in the general election.
References