The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Wisconsin voters chose ten electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican nominee Donald Trump against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

On April 5, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Wisconsin voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president in an open primary; voters were allowed to vote in either party's primary regardless of their own party affiliation. Bernie Sanders prevailed in Wisconsin's Democratic primary, while Ted Cruz won Wisconsin's Republican primary.

In the general election, Donald Trump unexpectedly won Wisconsin, defeating Clinton by a margin of 0.77%, with 47.22% of the total votes to 46.45%, the lowest percentage of victory since 2004. Trump's victory in Wisconsin was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all. As of 2024, this is the last time that Door County voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election, and the only time since 1960 that the Democratic presidential nominee won the nationwide popular vote without winning Wisconsin.

Primaries Wisconsin held its presidential primaries on April 5, 2016.

Democratic primary Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016

The Democrats held their sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was hosted by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff; it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Democratic primary, April 2016

Republican primary

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015

The Republicans held their fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015, in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal, who ended his campaign a week after the debate.

Republican primary, April 2016

Green Party presidential preference convention The Wisconsin Green Party held its presidential preference vote at its annual state convention in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 16.

+ Wisconsin Green Party presidential convention, April 13, 2016 Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates Jill Stein – – 7William Kreml – – 1Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry – – –Darryl Cherney – – –Kent Mesplay – – – Total-100.00%8

General election

Voting history Wisconsin joined the Union in May 1848 and has participated in all elections from 1848 onwards. Since 1900, Wisconsin has been won by the Democrats and Republicans the same number of times. Republican-turned-Progressive Robert M. La Follette Sr. carried the state in the 1924 presidential election.

The state voted for the Democratic nominee in the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, although sometimes by small margins, as it was in 1992, 2000, and 2004. There were other occasions, in contrast, when the margin of victory was substantial, such as 1996, 2008, and 2012.

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles Times November 6, 2016CNNNovember 4, 2016Cook Political ReportNovember 7, 2016Electoral-vote.comNovember 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Polls consistently showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading by a margin of two to eight points in a four-way race.2016 Wisconsin election forecast (538), accessed October 20, 2020 The last poll published prior to the election was by SurveyMonkey and had Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Donald Trump. Clinton never visited the state during the general election campaign, while Trump visited six times.Trump Out-Campaigned Clinton by 50 Percent in Key Battleground States in Final Stretch. NBC News. 13 November 2016. On election day, Trump ended up carrying the state by less than a point, a difference of an average of five to six points from most pre-election polling. Prior to the election, many major news networks and professional and election analysts predicted the state as either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin's unexpected swing to Trump, along with two other Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan), was the deciding factor in his win of 306–232 over Clinton, despite her garnering a plurality of the votes. Clinton referenced the loss in her memoir What Happened: "If there's one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end. They also looked good for the Democrat running for Senate, Russ Feingold."Hillary Clinton was caught by surprise by Wisconsin loss, she says in her book, 'What Happened'. Journal Sentinel. 12 September 2017

Results + 2016 United States presidential election in WisconsinPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,405,284 47.22% 10 Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,382,536 46.45% 0 Libertarian Gary Johnson Bill Weld 106,674 3.58% 0 Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka31,072 1.04% 0 Constitution Darrell L. Castle Scott N. Bradley 12,162 0.41% 0 Independent (write-in) Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 11,855 0.40% 0 Workers World Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly 1,770 0.06% 0 Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 1,502 0.05% 0 Others / Write-In Votes 23,295 0.78% 0 Totals 2,976,150 100.00% 10 Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanHillary ClintonDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams5,96658.89%3,74536.97%4194.14%2,22121.92%10,130Ashland3,30341.12%4,22652.61%5036.27%-923-11.49%8,032Barron13,61460.05%7,88934.80%1,1685.15%5,72525.25%22,671Bayfield4,12442.90%4,95351.53%5355.57%-829-8.63%9,612Brown67,21052.10%53,38241.38%8,4196.52%13,82810.72%129,011Buffalo4,04857.99%2,52536.17%4085.84%1,52321.82%6,981Burnett5,41061.91%2,94933.75%3794.34%2,46128.16%8,738Calumet15,36757.78%9,64236.25%1,5865.97%5,72521.53%26,595Chippewa17,91656.75%11,88737.66%1,7655.59%6,02919.09%31,568Clark8,65263.28%4,22130.87%8005.85%4,43132.41%13,673Columbia14,16347.69%13,52845.55%2,0076.76%6352.14%29,698Crawford3,83649.64%3,41944.24%4736.12%4175.40%7,728Dane71,27523.04%217,69770.37%20,3826.59%-146,422-47.33%309,354Dodge26,63561.83%13,96832.42%2,4755.75%12,66729.41%43,078Door8,58048.77%8,01445.55%9985.68%5663.22%17,592Douglas9,66142.87%11,35750.39%1,5186.74%-1,696-7.52%22,536Dunn11,48651.96%9,03440.87%1,5867.17%2,45211.09%22,106Eau Claire23,33142.40%27,34049.69%4,3547.91%-4,009-7.29%55,025Florence1,89871.46%66525.04%933.50%1,23346.42%2,656Fond du Lac31,02259.89%17,38733.57%3,3876.54%13,63526.32%51,796Forest2,78761.32%1,57934.74%1793.94%1,20826.58%4,545Grant12,35050.68%10,05141.25%1,9678.07%2,2899.43%24,368Green8,69345.79%9,12248.05%1,1706.16%-429-2.26%18,985Green Lake6,21666.02%2,69328.60%5075.38%3,52337.42%9,416Iowa4,80939.18%6,66954.33%7976.49%-1,860-15.15%12,275Iron2,08159.24%1,27536.29%1574.47%80622.95%3,513Jackson4,90652.94%3,81841.20%5435.86%1,08811.74%9,267Jefferson23,41754.32%16,56938.44%3,1237.24%6,84815.88%43,109Juneau7,13060.76%4,07334.71%5324.53%3,05726.05%11,735Kenosha36,03747.23%35,79946.92%4,4685.85%2380.31%76,304Kewaunee6,61861.47%3,62733.69%5224.84%2,99127.78%10,767La Crosse26,37841.43%32,40650.89%4,8907.68%-6,028-9.46%63,674Lafayette3,97751.91%3,28842.91%3975.18%6899.00%7,662Langlade6,47863.60%3,25031.91%4584.49%3,22831.69%10,186Lincoln8,40157.10%5,37136.51%9406.39%3,03020.59%14,712Manitowoc23,24456.99%14,53835.64%3,0047.37%8,70621.35%40,786Marathon39,01456.12%26,48138.09%4,0235.79%12,53318.03%69,518Marinette13,12264.50%6,40931.50%8124.00%6,71333.00%20,343Marquette4,70959.68%2,80835.58%3744.74%1,90124.10%7,891Menominee26720.41%1,00276.61%392.98%-735-56.20%1,308Milwaukee126,06928.58%288,82265.48%26,1625.94%-162,753-36.90%441,053Monroe11,35657.65%7,05235.80%1,2916.55%4,35421.85%19,699Oconto13,34566.04%5,94029.40%9214.56%7,40536.64%20,206Oneida12,13256.35%8,10937.66%1,2905.99%4,02318.69%21,531Outagamie49,87953.10%38,06840.53%5,9866.37%11,81112.57%93,933Ozaukee30,46455.84%20,17036.97%3,9267.19%10,20418.87%54,560Pepin2,20659.06%1,34435.98%1854.96%86223.08%3,735Pierce11,27252.73%8,39939.29%1,7057.98%2,87313.44%21,376Polk13,81060.72%7,56533.26%1,3706.02%6,24527.46%22,745Portage17,30544.84%18,52948.02%2,7557.14%-1,224-3.18%38,589Price4,55960.24%2,66735.24%3424.52%1,89225.00%7,568Racine46,68149.50%42,64145.22%4,9805.28%4,0404.28%94,302Richland4,01349.73%3,56944.23%4876.04%4445.50%8,069Rock31,49341.40%39,33951.71%5,2426.89%-7,846-10.31%76,074Rusk4,56464.39%2,17130.63%3534.98%2,39333.76%7,088Sauk14,79947.20%14,69046.85%1,8685.95%1090.35%31,357Sawyer5,18556.75%3,50338.34%4494.91%1,68218.41%9,137Shawano12,76964.46%6,06830.63%9734.91%6,70133.83%19,810Sheboygan32,51454.40%23,00038.48%4,2527.12%9,51415.92%59,766St. Croix26,22255.19%17,48236.80%3,8048.01%8,74018.39%47,508Taylor6,57969.46%2,39325.27%4995.27%4,18644.19%9,471Trempealeau7,36653.82%5,63641.18%6855.00%1,73012.64%13,687Vernon7,00449.06%6,37144.63%9006.31%6334.43%14,275Vilas8,16660.00%4,77035.05%6754.95%3,39624.95%13,611Walworth28,86356.16%18,71036.41%3,8187.43%10,15319.75%51,391Washburn5,43659.13%3,28235.70%4755.17%2,15423.43%9,193Washington51,74067.41%20,85227.17%4,1655.42%30,88840.24%76,757Waukesha142,54359.99%79,22433.34%15,8266.67%63,31926.65%237,593Waupaca16,20962.12%8,45132.39%1,4355.49%7,75829.73%26,095Waushara7,66763.50%3,79131.40%6165.10%3,87632.10%12,074Winnebago43,44549.86%37,04742.52%6,6437.62%6,3987.34%87,135Wood21,49856.85%14,22537.61%2,0955.54%7,27319.24%37,818Totals1,405,28447.22%1,382,53646.45%188,3306.33%22,7480.77%2,976,150

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Adams (largest city: Adams) Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi) Columbia (largest city: Portage) Crawford (largest city: Prairie du Chien) Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay) Dunn (largest city: Menomonie) Forest (largest city: Crandon) Grant (largest city: Platteville) Jackson (largest city: Black River Falls) Juneau (largest city: Mauston) Kenosha (largest city: Kenosha) Lafayette (largest city: Darlington) Lincoln (largest city: Merrill) Marquette (largest city: Montello) Pepin (largest city: Durand) Price (largest city: Park Falls) Racine (largest city: Racine) Richland (largest city: Richland Center) Sauk (largest city: Baraboo) Sawyer (largest city: Hayward) Trempealeau (largest city: Arcadia) Vernon (largest city: Viroqua) Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)

By congressional district

Trump won six of eight congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. District Trump Clinton Representative 52% 42%Paul Ryan 29% 65%Mark Pocan 49% 44%Ron Kind 22% 73%Gwen Moore 57% 37%Jim Sensenbrenner 55% 38%Glenn Grothman 57% 37%Sean Duffy 56% 38%Mike Gallagher

Analysis

Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the first to do so in a close election since Richard Nixon in 1960. He also became the first Republican to win a majority in Iron County since 1920.