2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi

The 2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Mississippi has not voted Democratic since 1976. Since that time, Republicans have dominated the state's political elections, and so Trump was widely expected to win the state. Indeed, Trump carried it with 57.94% of the vote, while Clinton received 40.11%. Trump's 17.83% margin of victory was a 6.33% increase over the 11.50% margin of victory by which Republican nominee Mitt Romney won the state over Barack Obama in 2012. This also marked the first time since 1988 that Madison County voted more Democratic than the state as a whole. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Oktibbeha County since Richard Nixon in 1968, as well as the first to do so without carrying Copiah, Pike, or Yazoo Counties since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Fueled by robust support from black voters, Clinton overwhelmed Mr. Sanders in Southern states. The Vermont senator barely competed in Mississippi and was still struggling to broaden his appeal beyond white, liberal voters.

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: Donald Trump Jeb Bush (withdrawn) Ben Carson (withdrawn) Chris Christie (withdrawn) Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) John Kasich Rand Paul (withdrawn) Marco Rubio Rick Santorum (withdrawn) Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) George Pataki (withdrawn)

General election Polling

Predictions The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Mississippi as of Election Day. SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles TimesNovember 6, 2016CNNNovember 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016NBCNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016ABCNovember 7, 2016

Results

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanHillary ClintonDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams5,87442.45%7,75756.06%2051.48%-1,883-13.61%13,836Alcorn11,81979.95%2,68418.16%2801.89%9,13561.79%14,783Amite4,28960.84%2,69738.26%640.91%1,59222.58%7,050Attala4,89759.31%3,24239.27%1171.42%1,65520.05%8,256Benton2,25156.09%1,71942.84%431.07%53213.26%4,013Bolivar4,59033.20%9,04665.44%1881.36%-4,456-32.23%13,824Calhoun4,39068.64%1,91029.86%961.50%2,48038.77%6,396Carroll3,79968.72%1,68030.39%490.89%2,11938.33%5,528Chickasaw4,12752.31%3,64946.25%1141.44%4786.06%7,890Choctaw2,78868.59%1,21829.96%591.45%1,57038.62%4,065Claiborne54012.64%3,70886.80%240.56%-3,168-74.16%4,272Clarke5,13765.94%2,58533.18%690.89%2,55232.76%7,791Clay4,15041.49%5,72257.20%1311.31%-1,572-15.72%10,003Coahoma2,42627.22%6,37871.57%1081.21%-3,952-44.34%8,912Copiah6,10347.01%6,74151.93%1381.06%-638-4.91%12,982Covington5,43561.68%3,27637.18%1001.13%2,15924.50%8,811DeSoto43,08965.59%20,59131.34%2,0153.07%22,49834.25%65,695Forrest15,46155.09%11,71641.75%8873.16%3,74513.34%28,064Franklin2,72163.43%1,50235.01%671.56%1,21928.41%4,290George8,69687.92%1,02710.38%1681.70%7,66977.54%9,891Greene4,33580.74%97418.14%601.12%3,36162.60%5,369Grenada5,97056.79%4,42442.08%1191.13%1,54614.71%10,513Hancock13,81178.31%3,34418.96%4822.73%10,46759.35%17,637Harrison40,35463.74%21,16933.44%1,7902.83%19,18530.30%63,313Hinds25,27526.69%67,59471.39%1,8121.91%-42,319-44.70%94,681Holmes1,30916.21%6,68982.83%780.97%-5,380-66.62%8,076Humphreys1,15127.06%3,07172.21%310.73%-1,920-45.14%4,253Issaquena29842.63%39556.51%60.86%-97-13.88%699Itawamba8,47086.99%1,11711.47%1501.54%7,35375.52%9,737Jackson33,62967.85%14,65729.57%1,2812.58%18,97238.28%49,567Jasper4,03847.65%4,36851.54%690.81%-330-3.89%8,475Jefferson49012.69%3,33786.45%330.85%-2,847-73.76%3,860Jefferson Davis2,46639.54%3,72059.64%510.82%-1,254-20.11%6,237Jones20,13371.01%7,79127.48%4281.51%12,34243.53%28,352Kemper1,77838.33%2,82760.94%340.73%-1,049-22.61%4,639Lafayette10,87255.35%7,96940.57%8024.08%2,90314.78%19,643Lamar18,75176.25%5,19021.10%6512.65%13,56155.14%24,592Lauderdale17,74160.13%11,26938.19%4961.68%6,47221.93%29,506Lawrence4,09164.28%2,19534.49%781.23%1,89629.79%6,364Leake4,78256.60%3,58442.42%830.98%1,19814.18%8,449Lee22,22067.51%10,02930.47%6642.02%12,19137.04%32,913Leflore3,21228.83%7,78769.90%1411.27%-4,575-41.07%11,140Lincoln10,55069.44%4,45829.34%1851.22%6,09240.10%15,193Lowndes13,27151.89%11,81946.21%4851.90%1,4525.68%25,575Madison28,26556.75%20,34340.85%1,1942.40%7,92215.91%49,802Marion7,83667.01%3,67731.45%1801.54%4,15935.57%11,693Marshall6,58744.39%8,02354.07%2291.54%-1,436-9.68%14,839Monroe10,16764.01%5,52434.78%1931.22%4,64329.23%15,884Montgomery2,81856.41%2,11542.33%631.26%70314.07%4,996Neshoba7,67972.77%2,71525.73%1591.51%4,96447.04%10,553Newton6,54869.38%2,75629.20%1341.42%3,79240.18%9,438Noxubee1,20021.53%4,34777.99%270.48%-3,147-56.46%5,574Oktibbeha8,57647.32%8,85948.88%6893.80%-283-1.56%18,124Panola7,44949.45%7,43149.33%1841.22%180.12%15,064Pearl River17,78281.26%3,60416.47%4972.27%14,17864.79%21,883Perry4,13576.12%1,22022.46%771.42%2,91553.66%5,432Pike8,00949.10%8,04349.31%2581.58%-34-0.21%16,310Pontotoc10,33679.61%2,38618.38%2622.02%7,95061.23%12,984Prentiss7,64877.47%2,06720.94%1571.59%5,58156.53%9,872Quitman1,00129.75%2,31268.71%521.55%-1,311-38.96%3,365Rankin47,17875.16%14,11022.48%1,4802.36%33,06852.68%62,768Scott6,12258.18%4,26840.56%1321.25%1,85417.62%10,522Sharkey69231.60%1,47967.53%190.87%-787-35.94%2,190Simpson7,39364.74%3,87433.93%1521.33%3,51930.82%11,419Smith5,92877.72%1,61721.20%821.08%4,31156.52%7,627Stone5,30675.32%1,57322.33%1662.36%3,73352.99%7,045Sunflower2,79429.11%6,72570.07%790.82%-3,931-40.96%9,598Tallahatchie2,46241.94%3,33756.85%711.21%-875-14.91%5,870Tate7,49564.46%3,92633.77%2061.77%3,56930.70%11,627Tippah7,24078.40%1,84219.95%1531.66%5,39858.45%9,235Tishomingo7,16685.61%99911.93%2062.46%6,16773.67%8,371Tunica85323.91%2,66774.77%471.32%-1,814-50.86%3,567Union9,23580.33%2,01217.50%2492.17%7,22362.83%11,496Walthall4,05658.62%2,79040.32%731.06%1,26618.30%6,919Warren9,76750.30%9,28447.82%3651.88%4832.49%19,416Washington5,24431.17%11,38067.64%2011.19%-6,136-36.47%16,825Wayne5,99062.40%3,52436.71%850.89%2,46625.69%9,599Webster3,97678.44%1,01920.10%741.46%2,95758.33%5,069Wilkinson1,31831.25%2,85767.73%431.02%-1,539-36.49%4,218Winston4,91055.29%3,85043.35%1211.36%1,06011.94%8,881Yalobusha3,37655.55%2,58242.49%1191.96%79413.07%6,077Yazoo4,59845.66%5,36953.32%1031.02%-771-7.66%10,070Totals700,71457.94%485,13140.11%23,5122.94%215,58317.83%1,209,357

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Benton (largest town: Hickory Flat) Chickasaw (largest city: Houston) Panola (largest city: Batesville) Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)

By congressional district Trump won three of four congressional districts. District Trump Clinton Representative 65% 32%Trent Kelly 35% 64%Bennie Thompson 61% 37%Gregg Harper 69% 28%Steven Palazzo

Analysis

As expected, Trump won the state, with the state shifting rightward by 6%. The five Deep South states did not shift particularly hard towards Trump in 2016, and Georgia outright swung leftward. This was due to a combination of racial polarization and the state's white voters without college degrees already being extremely Republican. Mississippi is 38% Black, and most of the state's counties narrowly swung towards Trump due to extremely high racial polarization.

The regions of the country that swung the hardest towards Trump were instead the Upland South (i.e. West Virginia and Kentucky), the Midwest, and the Northern United States.

See also Democratic Party presidential debates, 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016 Republican Party presidential debates, 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016

References

External links RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Mississippi