Opinion polling for the 2016 Irish general election

Numerous polls of support for political parties in Ireland were taken between the 2011 general election and the 2016 general election, held on Friday, 26 February 2016. The article also contains polls taken after the election while a government was being formed.

Two main tables of opinion polls are shown below. The top table lists opinion polls taken in 2016, the election year, and includes all political parties with Dáil representation, plus the Green Party. The second table, for polls from the last general election in 2011 up to 2015, does not break out Renua or the Social Democrats, which were both founded in 2015.

Opinion polling for Irish general elections Previous Next ← 2011 election 2020 election → ← 2011 polling 2020 polling →

2016 Color key:

Date Source/Link Polling Agency FG Lab FF SF AAA -PBP RI SD GP OthersGeneral election 25.56.624.313.83.92.23.02.717.9RTÉBehaviour & Attitudes24.87.121.116.04.72.43.73.616.6The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI26.17.822.914.93.62.32.83.516.1Paddy PowerRed C 3072015324316"Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI2862315323218"Others" includes Independent Alliance 4% .Others also includes 3% who indicated they would vote Independent/Other but were undecided as to precisely whom.Sunday IndependentMillward Brown 2762319524214Millward Brown does not break out Independent AllianceThe Sunday Business PostRed C3081816324415"Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes3042215533315"Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Workers' Party 1%The Irish SunRed C2691917223418"Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%The Sunday Business PostRed C2881820314216"Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%Paddy PowerRed C3081817423216"Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes2882017324315"Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%, Workers' Party 1%The Sunday Business PostRed C31101717313216"Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%Sunday Independent Millward Brown2762221311118 The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI2872119412216"Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%The Sunday Business PostRed C29101719312316The Sunday Business PostRed C3091919321215The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes3162016321320"Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, and Independent Alliance 3%General election 36.119.417.49.92.2Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1% in 2011, they have combined since the 2014 Local Elections, where they ran separately, as the Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Party abbreviated initially as AAA-PBP and latterly as AAA only. 1.814.2

2011–2015 Graphical summary

Poll results Date Source/Link Polling Agency FG Lab FF SF GP AAA-PBP OthersThe Sunday Business PostRed C32917192318"Others" includes Social Democrats 2% and Renua 2%The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes31819173418"Others" includes Social Democrats 1%, Workers' Party 1%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%Paddy PowerRed C28920182419"Others" includes Social Democrats 3%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI30719212318"Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 2%The Sunday Business PostRed C31719182419"Others" includes Social Democrats 3% and Renua 1%The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes26720211916"Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%, Renua 1% and Social Democrats 1%Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2972421119"Others" includes Renua 1%The Sunday Business PostRed C30720162124"Others" includes Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes24819191721"Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Renua 2%, Social Democrats 1% and Workers' Party 1%The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI28820191321"Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%The Sunday Business PostRed C2810181628The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes27620192523"Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2472321132% reported as Socialist Party23"Others" includes Renua 1% and Social Democrats 0.5%The Sunday Business PostRed C25818182128The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes248181732Sunday IndependentMillward Brown 29623211317The Sunday Business PostThe date shown in our table, 24 June 2015, was the last day of polling.Red C2872018225The Sunday Times Note: the 1% figure for Renua is from a table (on the second of two pages 16 in this document:) whose other figures match the Unadjusted table (on the first of two pages 8 in this document:); the figures published by RTÉ correspond to the Adjusted table (on the first of two pages 10 in this document:), which has no figure for Renua.Behaviour & Attitudes2492119226The Sunday Business PostRed C28101921319The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI287202124The Sunday Business PostRed C25819221Less than 1%, included in "Others"24Sunday IndependentMillward Brown25819243218"Others" includes Renua 2%The Sunday Business PostRed C27101817226The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI2471724325The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes2791819323The Sunday Business PostRed C2471821327Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2561926123The Sunday Business PostRed C2491920226RTÉ (Today with Sean O'Rourke)Red C2481821128"Others" includes 1% for Renua, which had not been named at that point.The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes2451822129Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2251821232The Sunday Business PostRed C21619 24228The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI1962122329The Sunday Business PostRed C2281822327Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2272026223The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes2591819325The Sunday Business PostRed C2681820228The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI249202423Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2592122123The Sunday Business PostRed C2881823223The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes24141819124Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2572024123The Sunday Business PostRed C2571822226Paddy PowerRed C2241822232Sunday IndependentMillward Brown20520262225European election 22.35.322.319.54.93.3Contested as separate parties23.9Local elections 24.07.225.315.21.62.925.5Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2062123227The Sunday Business PostRed C2511211825Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2962220221The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes2192020426The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI258252121The Sunday Business PostRed C269222122Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2782122220The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes309191824The Sunday Business PostRed C2911221622Sunday IndependentMillward Brown30122616115The Sunday Business PostRed C279231625Paddy PowerRed C2810221822The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes301121153Others figure of 24% includes 3% for the Green Party21The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI309222118The Sunday Business PostRed C29122215220Sunday IndependentMillward Brown2792421118Paddy PowerRed C2592416224The Sunday Business PostRed C299231723The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI2662223221Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne28102719115The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes25112118323The Sunday Business PostRed C27102317419Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne2782521118Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne2982819115Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne268291919The Sunday Business PostRed C2812221721The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI2492621218Paddy PowerRed C3010241620Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne2711271718The Sunday Business PostRed C2611261621Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne23122619118The Sunday Business PostRed C28112516218Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne24122716218The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes2772315225The Sunday Business PostRed C28132414120Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne2592920116Irish IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne24112321220The Sunday Business PostRed C28122616216Irish IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne25132720115The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI25102618120The Sunday Business PostRed C28112119219The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes26112419318Paddy PowerRed C29132116318The Sunday Business PostRed C28142017318The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes30122214319The Sunday Business PostRed C34131917215The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI31122120214The Sunday Business PostRed C32141818216The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes31141618219The Sunday Business PostRed C32151816217Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne36121720114The Sunday Business PostRed C30151819216The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI32101724215The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes33141617218Paddy PowerRed C32131820215Irish IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne34151617117The Sunday Business PostRed C29131921216The Sunday Business PostRed C321417192115The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes33141516518The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI33131421217Paddy PowerRed C35161514218The Sunday Business PostRed C34151618215The Sunday Business PostRed C30161718217The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes33131620216The Sunday Business PostRed C30141817318Paddy PowerRed C33161714218The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes29121819318The Sunday Business PostRed C32151815119The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI36191515114The Sunday Business PostRed C31171416220The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes35161417116The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI35171618212The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes34161614317The Sunday Business PostRed C33161515219Sunday IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne40201011217The Sunday TimesBehaviour & Attitudes44121513212The Irish TimesIpsos MRBI38181810214Irish IndependentMillward Brown Lansdowne42191611112The Sunday Business PostRed C41191611310The Sunday Business PostRed C39181611214General election 36.119.417.49.91.82.2Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1%14.2

Polling Companies Four companies carry out national and sectoral opinion polls in Ireland. They use different methodologies, which can have a bearing on overall accuracy.

Normally the sample size for a national poll is in the very low thousands with a margin of error of ~ 3%

The methodologies used by the four companies are:

Polling Agency Methodology Own Statement on Sampling (with page number) BandA Face To Face(In Home) (Page 3) IpSoS/MRBI Telephone(Random Autodial) (Description section at bottom) Millward Brown Face To Face (In Home) (Page 2) RedC Telephone(Random Autodial) (Page 2)

Footnotes

References