The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Haslam was term-limited and prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean in a landslide. Despite Lee’s win, this was the closest win for a Republican since 1994. Lee was sworn in for his first term as Governor on January 19, 2019.

The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.

During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican governor Bill Haslam in 2014.

The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.

As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.

Republican primary Candidates Nominated Bill Lee, businessman

Eliminated in primary Diane Black, U.S. representative Randy Boyd, former Tennessee cabinet official Beth Harwell, speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives Basil Marceaux, perennial candidate Kay White, realtor and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 1st congressional district in 1996 and 1998

Withdrawn Mae Beavers, former state senator (unsuccessfully ran for Wilson County mayor) Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran in Tennessee's 7th congressional district)

Declined Marsha Blackburn, U.S. representative (successfully ran for the U.S. Senate) Tim Burchett, mayor of Knox County (successfully ran in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district) Joe Carr, former state representative, perennial candidate Bob Corker, U.S. senator Stephen Fincher, former U.S. representative Alberto Gonzales, dean of the Belmont University School of Law and former U.S. attorney general Bill Hagerty, United States Ambassador to Japan and former Tennessee cabinet official Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State Rob Mitchell, Rutherford County property assessor Mark Norris, majority leader of the Tennessee Senate, appointed as judge to the United States District Court for the Western District of Tennessee Andy Ogles, director of Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity (successfully ran for mayor of Maury County) Ron Ramsey, former lieutenant governor of Tennessee and candidate for governor of Tennessee in 2010

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DianeBlack RandyBoyd BethHarwell BillLee Other UndecidedJMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics July 18–21, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 20% 16% 26% 1%Basil Marceaux 1%, Kay White <1% 17%Emerson CollegeEmerson College July 11–14, 2018 266 ± 6.4% 27% 22% 14% 19% 3% 14%Data OrbitalData Orbital June 27–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 24% 23% 10% 19% – 24%Triton Polling & Research (R)Triton Polling & Research (R) June 25–28, 2018 1,040 ± 3.1% 27% 33% 7% 20% – 13%OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) May 14–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 28% 8% 9% – 15%Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) May 4–6, 2018 800 – 41% 26% 6% 11% – 15%OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) April 2018 – – 33% 30% 5% 13% – –OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) March 2018 – – 31% 31% 10% 10% – –TargetPoint/GQRTargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 390 ± 5.0% 25% 20% 6% 7% 2%Kay White 2% 37%North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) February 5–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 22% 25% 4% 18% – 30%Triton Polling & Research (R)Triton Polling & Research (R) December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 22% 12% 6% 4% 4%Mae Beavers 4% 53%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominated Karl Dean, former mayor of Nashville, 2007–2015

Eliminated in primary Craig Fitzhugh, minority leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives Mezianne Vale Payne, retiree

Declined Andy Berke, mayor of Chattanooga and former state senator Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for mayor of Nashville in 2015

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KarlDean CraigFitzhugh Other UndecidedEmerson College July 11–14, 2018 206 ± 7.3% 44% 14% 9% 33%TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 41% 11% – 44%

Results

Independents Candidates Mark CoonRippy Brown (Independent) Sherry L. Clark (Libertarian) Justin Cornett (Libertarian) Gabriel Fancher (Libertarian) Sean Bruce Fleming (Libertarian) William Andrew Helmstetter (Libertarian) Cory King (Libertarian) Matthew Koch (Libertarian) Yvonne Neubert (Green) Alfred Shawn Rapoza (Libertarian) Chad Riden, comedian (Independent) Heather Scott (Libertarian) George Blackwell Smith IV (Libertarian) Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Libertarian) Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Libertarian) Mike Toews (Libertarian) Rick Tyler, candidate for TN-03 in 2016 Vinnie Vineyard (Funkmaster V from Wrestling With Ghosts) (Libertarian) Jaron D. Weidner (Libertarian) Patrick Whitlock (Independent) Joe B. Wilmoth (Independent)

Notes

General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018 Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018

Endorsements

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018The Washington Post November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018Rothenberg Political Report November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 4, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018Governing November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillLee (R) KarlDean (D) Other UndecidedTargoz Market ResearchTargoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 480 – 53% 44% – 2%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 54% 41% 2% 3%Fox NewsFox News October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 54% 37% 2% 7% 850 RV ± 3.0% 52% 36% 2% 9%Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 56% 44% – –CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 52% 42% 0% 4% 871 RV ± 4.0% 52% 41% 0% 5%East Tennessee State UniversityEast Tennessee State University October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 48% 36% 5% 9%Cygnal (R)Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 59% 36% 3% 2%Marist CollegeMarist College October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 57% 40% 1% 3% 764 RV ± 4.4% 56% 39% 1% 4%Vanderbilt University/SSRSVanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 48% 37% 0% 12%Targoz Market ResearchTargoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018 558 LV – 56% 44% – – 801 RV – 49% 39% – 12%NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 59% 33% – 8%Fox NewsFox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 53% 36% 1% 10% 806 RV ± 3.5% 52% 35% 1% 10%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 46% 35% – 19%Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 55% 45% – –CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 52% 43% 0% 3% 852 RV ± 3.9% 49% 43% 0% 5%Triton Polling & Research (R)Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 54% 37% – 9%Fox NewsFox News September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 55% 35% 1% 10% 809 RV ± 3.5% 52% 34% 2% 12%Marist CollegeMarist College August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 53% 40% 1% 7% 730 RV ± 4.5% 51% 39% 1% 9%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 51% 40% – 9%Triton Polling & Research (R)Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 38% 34% – 28%

with Karl Dean Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DianeBlack (R) KarlDean (D) UndecidedEmerson College July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 35% 39% 27%Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 46% 35% 19%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 40% 31% 28%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RandyBoyd (R) KarlDean (D) UndecidedEmerson College July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 34% 36% 30%Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 34% 23%Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 35% 28%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BethHarwell (R) KarlDean (D) UndecidedTriton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 33% 25%Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 38% 33% 29%

with Craig Fitzhugh Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DianeBlack (R) CraigFitzhugh (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 42% 27% 31%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RandyBoyd (R) CraigFitzhugh (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 39% 30% 31%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BethHarwell (R) CraigFitzhugh (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 44% 24% 32%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MaeBeavers (R) KarlDean (D) UndecidedTriton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 36% 36% 28%Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 32% 37% 32%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MaeBeavers (R) CraigFitzhugh (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 36% 29% 34%

Results

By county

{| class="wikitable sortable" !rowspan="2" colspan="1" style="text-align:center" | County || colspan="2" style="text-align: center;" | Bill LeeRepublican || colspan="2" style="text-align: center;" | Karl DeanDemocratic|| colspan="2" style="text-align: center;" | Other votes || rowspan="2" colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | Totalvotes |- ! colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | % ! colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | # ! colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | % ! colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | # ! colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | % ! colspan="1" style="text-align: center;" | # |- ||Anderson || 62.46% || 16,265 || 36.34% || 9,462 || 1.20% || 313 || 26,040 |- ||Bedford || 72.72% || 9,489 || 26.42% || 3,447 || 0.87% || 113 || 13,049 |- ||Benton || 69.14% || 3,696 || 29.91% || 1,599 || 0.95% || 51 || 5,346 |- ||Bledsoe || 76.18% || 3,102 || 22.67% || 923 || 1.15% || 47 || 4,072 |- ||Blount || 70.48% || 32,958 || 28.57% || 13,362 || 0.95% || 445 || 46,765 |- ||Bradley || 77.37% || 26,123 || 21.58% || 7,287 || 1.05% || 355 || 33,765 |- ||Campbell || 77.01% || 7,820 || 21.56% || 2,189 || 1.43% || 145 || 10,154 |- ||Cannon || 74.58% || 3,473 || 24.84% || 1,157 || 0.58% || 27 || 4,657 |- ||Carroll || 73.41% || 6,451 || 25.57% || 2,247 || 1.02% || 90 || 8,788 |- ||Carter || 80.15% || 14,922 || 18.93% || 3,525 || 0.91% || 170 || 18,617 |- ||Cheatham || 68.93% || 9,966 || 30.55% || 4,417 || 0.52% || 76 || 14,459 |- ||Chester || 77.25% || 4,161 || 20.99% || 1,131 || 1.76% || 95 || 5,387 |- ||Claiborne || 76.75% || 6,514 || 22.05% || 1,871 || 1.20% || 102 || 8,487 |- ||Clay || 68.96% || 1,773 || 30.26% || 778 || 0.78% || 20 || 2,571 |- ||Cocke || 78.55% || 8,139 || 20.07% || 2,080 || 1.38% || 143 || 10,362 |- ||Coffee || 69.58% || 11,828 || 28.63% || 4,867 || 1.78% || 303 || 16,998 |- ||Crockett || 73.02% || 3,274 || 26.16% || 1,173 || 0.83% || 37 || 4,484 |- ||Cumberland || 76.45% || 18,217 || 22.65% || 5,396 || 0.90% || 216 || 23,829 |- ||Davidson || 32.02% || 78,286 || 62.34% || 152,441 || 5.64% || 13,801 || 244,528 |- ||Decatur || 73.61% || 2,844 || 24.25% || 937 || 2.15% || 83 || 3,864 |-