The 2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominee, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Clinton won the state with 46.83% of the vote, while Trump lost with 46.46%, a 0.37% margin, or 2,736 votes. This result nonetheless made New Hampshire 1.73% more Republican than the nation-at-large, and remains the only time since 2000 that New Hampshire has voted to the right of the national environment. New Hampshire being one of the most educated states in the country kept the state from flipping to Trump, due to Trump underperforming among white college-educated voters. This marked the second-closest margin percentage in the presidential election, behind only Michigan, and was Clinton's closest margin of victory of any state. Along with Maine's 2nd district, New Hampshire's 1st district was one of only two congressional districts in New England to vote for Trump.
This is the closest that a Republican nominee has come to carrying New Hampshire since 2000, when George W. Bush became the last Republican to carry the state. This also marked the first of only two times that a non-incumbent Republican won the White House without carrying New Hampshire (along with 2024), and the second of only three times overall (along with 2004 and 2024) in which any Republican won without carrying the state. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time Hillsborough County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.
Primary elections As per tradition and by New Hampshire electoral laws, New Hampshire holds the primaries before any other state. As a result, candidates for nomination usually spend a long period campaigning in New Hampshire.
Democratic primary
In the New Hampshire Democratic primary taking place on February 9, 2016, there were 24 pledged delegates and 8 super delegates that went to the Democratic National Convention. The pledged electors were allocated in this way. 16 delegates were allocated proportionally by congressional district (8 delegates per district). The other 8 delegates were allocated based on the statewide popular vote.
Results
Republican primary
The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 9, 2016, where there were 23 bound delegates which were allocated proportionally and a candidate has to get at least 10% of the vote to get any delegates to the Republican National Convention.
Results
General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles Times November 6, 2016CNNNovember 4, 2016Cook Political ReportNovember 7, 2016Electoral-vote.comNovember 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016
Polling
Up until late October 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won almost every pre-election poll. On November 1, just one week before the election, Republican Donald Trump won a poll for the first time, 44% to 42%. In the final week, Trump won 4 polls to Clinton's 2 and one tie. The final poll showed a 45% to 44% lead for Clinton, which was accurate compared to the results. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton up 45% to 42%.
Results
By county County Hillary ClintonDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Belknap 13,517 38.57% 19,315 55.11% 2,213 6.32% -5,798 -16.54% 35,045 Carroll 12,987 43.85% 14,635 49.42% 1,994 6.73% -1,648 -5.57% 29,616 Cheshire 22,064 52.66% 16,876 40.28% 2,955 7.06% 5,188 12.38% 41,895 Coos 6,563 42.00% 7,952 50.89% 1,112 7.11% -1,389 -8.89% 15,627 Grafton 28,510 55.69% 19,010 37.14% 3,671 7.17% 9,500 18.55% 51,191 Hillsborough 99,589 46.50% 100,013 46.70% 14,555 6.80% -424 -0.20% 214,157 Merrimack 40,198 48.06% 37,674 45.04% 5,776 6.90% 2,524 3.02% 83,648 Rockingham 79,994 44.09% 90,447 49.85% 10,993 6.06% -10,453 -5.76% 181,434 Strafford 34,894 50.57% 29,072 42.13% 5,034 7.30% 5,822 8.44% 69,000 Sullivan 10,210 45.01% 10,796 47.60% 1,677 7.39% -586 -2.59% 22,683Totals348,52646.83%345,79046.46%49,9806.71%2,7360.37%744,296
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Coös (largest city: Berlin) Hillsborough (largest city: Manchester) Sullivan (largest city: Claremont)
By congressional district Clinton and Trump each won a congressional district, with Trump winning one that elected a Democrat. District Clinton Trump Representative 46% 47%Carol Shea-Porter 48% 45%Ann McLane Kuster
Analysis
Hillary Clinton's margin of victory was the smallest for a Democrat in the state since Woodrow Wilson narrowly won it in 1916. New Hampshire last voted for a Republican, George W. Bush, in 2000, and although Trump did not win New Hampshire, the top-line county results were exactly the same in 2000 and 2016. This was the first time since 2000 that the Democratic presidential nominee did not win a majority of votes in New Hampshire.
A New England state, New Hampshire is one of the most educated states in the country. The swings in the most college-educated counties (see the map), including Grafton (home to Dartmouth College), Hillsborough, and Rockingham were small enough to narrowly keep the state in Clinton's column.
Despite Trump's narrow loss, this would be the first and only presidential election since 2000 where New Hampshire would vote more Republican than the national average, when the Republican candidate won more of the state's counties, along with the first time since 1976 when the winner of Coos County did not also carry the state as well. Coincidentally, New Hampshire voted as Republican in 2016 as it did Democratic in 2012 in comparison to the rest of the nation.
Allegations of voting irregularities On September 7, 2017, state House speaker Shawn Jasper announced that data showed that 6,540 people voted using out-of-state licenses. Of those, only 15% had received state licenses by August 2017. Of the remaining 5,526, only 3.3% had registered a motor vehicle in New Hampshire. In addition to the close vote for president, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan defeated incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte by 1,017 votes. In February 2017, President Trump had told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire. Mainstream media disputed Trump's and Jasper's assertion.Weigel, David, "Election Integrity Commission members accuse New Hampshire voters of fraud", The Washington Post, 8 September 2017' Scarborough, Rowan, "More than 5,000 out-of-state voters may have tipped New Hampshire against Trump", Washington Times, September 7, 2017 New Hampshire law permits New Hampshire residents to vote using out-of-state identification if they are domiciled in the state, out-of-state college students attending schools in New Hampshire being one example of such legitimate use of out-of-state identification.UNH Votes, ""
Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only 4 instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections. Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there.
See also First presidency of Donald Trump United States presidential elections in New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
Notes
References
External links RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions