Estimates of the population of Nanjing in December 1937 vary widely from source to source. Scholars have been heavily engaged in attempting to calculate Nanjing (then romanized as Nanking)'s population at this time because of its relevance to estimating the death toll of the Nanjing Massacre.
In December 1937, during the Second Sino-Japanese War between Japan and China, Japanese soldiers marched on the Chinese capital city of Nanjing. Most Chinese residents fled Nanjing, though the number of people within the city was bolstered by the presence of a large garrison of Chinese soldiers defending it. After the fall of the city on December 13, 1937, Japanese soldiers massacred Chinese prisoners of war and civilians in and around the city.
Contemporary data on how many soldiers and civilians inhabited Nanjing at the time of the massacre is contradictory and often unreliable. However, modern scholars have an interest in accurately estimating the number in order to aid them in calculating the number of people who might have been massacred by the Japanese Army. Various recent estimates put the population of the city in December at as many as 500,000 civilians and 150,000 soldiers or as few as 200,000 civilians and 70,000 soldiers.
Background
On December 1, 1937, following the end of the Battle of Shanghai during the Second Sino-Japanese War, Japanese soldiers stationed in the vicinity of Shanghai were ordered to march inland to Nanjing, the capital city of China.Yamamoto, pp. 49–50. The opposing Chinese garrison, the Nanjing Garrison Force, attempted to defend a series of encampment outside of Nanjing, but ultimately could not prevent the Japanese Army from arriving at the walled city by December 9. On December 13, the Japanese Army captured Nanjing and perpetrated the Nanjing Massacre.Kasahara (1997), p. 3. The Chinese population of Nanjing in December prior to the fall of the city included both the civilian residents of the city and the soldiers of the Nanjing Garrison Force who were defending it.Kasahara (1999), pp. 85–86.
Civilian population An official survey conducted in March 1937 had put the total civilian population of Nanjing at 1,019,667.Kasahara (1997), p. 219. However, most of the city's population, particularly the wealthy and middle class, fled after the Japanese starting bombing it in August. Most of those who stayed behind were the very poor who had nowhere else to go, as well as the officials who had jobs with the city government.Kasahara (1997), pp. 30–32.
In the first weeks of December, as the Japanese were advancing on the city, rapid population movements took place both into and out of the city. On the one hand, many inhabitants of Nanjing attempted to flee to neighboring villages in the last days before the city's fall. On the other hand, refugees were streaming into the city from the rural villages around Nanjing which were being burned down by the Chinese Army. Starting on December 7, the Chinese Army launched a scorched earth policy of incinerating houses around Nanjing to deprive the oncoming Japanese soldiers of shelter.Kasahara (1997), p. 120. These chaotic conditions made it difficult to keep track of the city's population.
In November, foreign residents of the city had constituted the International Committee, which in turn created a demilitarized zone for refugees in central Nanjing called the Nanking Safety Zone.Askew (2008), pp. 227–228. By the time of the city's fall, much of Nanjing's remaining population had congregated within the safety zone.Askew (March 2001), p. 7.
Primary sources No official statistics attest to Nanjing's population in December 1937.Hata, pp. 208–209. However, a variety of contemporary estimates do exist, including the views of foreign residents of Nanjing such as John Rabe, statements by Western journalists, the sampling survey conducted by Lewis Smythe, and the population registration of the Japanese occupation.Askew (March 2001), p. 3.
In December, members of the International Committee, including George Ashmore Fitch and its leader John Rabe, estimated the city's civilian population at approximately 200,000.Askew (March 2001), pp. 4–5. Rabe, however, revised his estimate upwards on January 14 to "250,000 to 300,000 civilians" in a letter to the Japanese embassy. Rabe stated that earlier figures had been "deliberately cautious guesses".Askew (March 2001), p. 6. However, when another committee member, Lewis Smythe, compiled a population survey of Nanjing the same year, he reaffirmed that Nanjing's civilian population at the time the city fell was between 200,000 and 250,000.Askew (March 2001), p. 13.
By contrast, most Western journalists who were in Nanjing in November and December 1937 put forward much lower population numbers of around 150,000. For instance, New York Times reporter F. Tillman Durdin supported the estimate of 150,000. By the time that the Japanese forces occupying Nanjing attempted to formally register the city's entire population in late December, 1937, and early January, 1938, 160,000 people were recorded. However, the Japanese often did not count young children and elderly women in their registration.Askew (March 2001), p. 15.
Primary source Estimate of civilian population Reference Lily Abegg (Swiss journalist) 150,000 Askew (March 2001), p. 18. F. Tillman Durdin 150,000 Askew (March 2001), p. 19. Robert O. Wilson 150,000-200,000 Wang Kopang (Chinese policeman) 200,000 Askew (March 2001), p. 11. Eduard Sperling (International Committee member) 200,000 Askew (March 2001), p. 12. Chancellor P. Scharffenberg (employee of the German embassy) 200,000 George Ashmore Fitch 200,000 John Rabe (December 1937) 200,000 Lewis Smythe 200,000-250,000 Miner Searle Bates 221,000 John Rabe (January 1938) 250,000-300,000
Analysis of scholars Historian Ikuhiko Hata analyzed various estimate for Nanjing's civilian population at the time the city fell to the Japanese Army, and concludes that Lewis Smythe's figures of 200,000-250,000 are the most credible. Australian historian David Askew believes that Smythe's data and the population registration undertaken by the Japanese after the city's fall represent the two most important base figures for estimating Nanjing's population. Askew settles on 200,000 as the number most in line with contemporary sources.Askew (March 2001), p. 2. He discounts Rabe's later estimate of 250,000-300,000 as being an exaggeration presented to Japanese authorities in the hope of convincing them to provide additional food aid.
On the other hand, Tokushi Kasahara asserts that the contemporary figure of 200,000 strongly underestimates Nanjing's civilian population at the time of the city's fall. He argues that the contemporary figures probably included only those Chinese who had evaded the Japanese Army during and immediately after the battle and successfully escaped to the safety zone. Kasahara cites a letter that Ma Chaojun, the mayor of Nanjing, wrote on November 23 that 500,000 civilians remained in the city and that 200,000 additional refugees from surrounding areas were expected to arrive soon. After that, Nanjing was swollen with refugees due to the Chinese Army's incineration of villages just outside the city. Though Kasahara acknowledges that many Chinese people left the city after November 23, he suspects that the influx of new refugees would likely have brought the city's civilian population up to roughly 400,000-500,000 by the time that the Japanese arrived.
Scholar Estimate of civilian population Reference David Askew 200,000 Ikuhiko Hata 200,000-250,000 Tokushi Kasahara 400,000-500,000
The Nanjing Garrison Force On November 20, the Chinese government constituted the Nanjing Garrison Force in order to defend the city and its environs from the Japanese attack.Kasahara (1997), p. 113. The force consisted of Chinese Army units which had escaped from Shanghai and gradually regrouped in Nanjing.Kasahara (1997), p. 114. If all the Nanjing Garrison Force's constituent units, which included thirteen infantry divisions, had been at full strength, its total size would have been 180,400. In fact, most of its units are known to have lost a substantial portion of their troop strength during the Battle of Shanghai.Yamamoto, p. 46. Some were hastily reinforced with new recruits, a great number of which were conscripted into service from the city of Nanjing and its suburbs. In early December, the Chinese fought a series of engagements with the Japanese Army along their defenses both outside and inside the city. After the fall of Nanjing, many of the garrison's surviving soldiers cast off their weapons and uniforms and hid amongst the city's civilian population.
Primary sources No definitive figures were recorded on the total size of the Nanjing Garrison Force, which included both regular soldiers and a variety of non-combatant laborers and temporary employees handling odd jobs.Kasahara (1997), p. 221. Many Chinese sources indicate that the Nanjing Garrison Force contained somewhat in excess of 100,000 soldiers. Song Xilian, commander of China's 78th Corps, claimed that the Nanjing Garrison Force was over 110,000 men strong, whereas Li Zongren reported that it numbered "more than 100,000 men."Askew (April 2003), p. 159. By contrast, Tan Daoping, a staff officer in Nanjing Garrison Force, gave a smaller figure of 81,000 by adding together a unit-by-unit breakdown of the whole force.Askew (April 2003), p. 158. One Chinese officer, Major Zhang Qunsi, wrote an internal document which stated that the force had only 50,000 men.
Chinese commanders often inflated their own troop strength figures in the hopes of securing additional supplies, as supplies were allocated based on unit size.Askew (April 2003), pp. 152–154. However, in the case of the Nanjing Garrison Force, the Chinese estimates are similar to those recorded in contemporary Japanese sources. Two high-ranking Japanese officers, Major-Generals Tōichi Sasaki and Mamoru Iinuma, who were at Nanjing at the time of the battle, both concluded that the defending Chinese garrison consisted of 100,000 soldiers.Askew (April 2003), pp. 160–161.
By contrast, the large majority of foreign observers believed that Nanjing Garrison Force to include roughly 50,000 soldiers or less. A US Army intelligence report concluded that the force was 40,000-50,000 men strong, and likewise F. Tillman Durdin of the New York Times reported its troop strength at 50,000. These lower estimates might refer only to those Chinese soldiers trapped within Nanjing itself during the final days of the battle, and they might not include non-combatant military personnel.Askew (April 2003), pp. 156–157.
Primary source Nanjing Garrison Force troop strength Reference Japan 10th Army 35,000 US Army 40,000-50,000 Zhang Qunsi 50,000 F. Tillman Durdin 50,000 Tan Daoping 81,000 Toichi Sasaki 100,000 Mamoru Iinuma 100,000 Li Zongren 100,000+ Liu Fei (staff officer in China's general staff) 100,000+ Mitsuo Nakazawa (staff officer in Japan's 16th Division) 100,000-120,000 Song Xilian 110,000+
Scholarly research To calculate the total size of the Nanjing Garrison Force, scholars have adopted both a "macro approach" and a "micro approach". The macro approach involves collecting primary source estimates of the whole size of the Nanjing Garrison Force and analyzing them. By contrast, the micro approach involves examining estimates of each individual unit within the Nanjing Garrison Force and adding them together to produce an estimate of the size of the whole force.Askew (April 2003), pp. 162–163.