Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2011 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2008, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
A total of 20 polls in 17 ridings across 2 provinces were conducted.
Constituency polls
British Columbia Saanich—Gulf Islands
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Oracle HTML 38 9 9 45 0 ±4.9 pp 389 IVR2008 Election HTML 43 39 6 10 1 ±0.0 pp 64,639 Election
Quebec Beauport—Limoilou
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 27 5 36 30 2 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 37 14 12 33 3 1 ±0.0 pp 49,794 Election
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 31 9 35 22 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 41 14 13 29 2 0 ±0.0 pp 50,791 Election
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 18 9 27 43 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR Segma Research HTML 29 11 23 35 3 0 ±4.6 pp 432 IVR2008 Election HTML 35 13 8 41 2 0 ±0.0 pp 48,533 Election
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Segma Research HTML 14 19 11 48 6 0 ±4.9 pp 435 IVR2008 Election HTML 23 27 7 40 3 0 ±0.0 pp 36,940 Election
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Segma Research HTML 15 24 5 49 5 0 ±4.9 pp 435 IVR2008 Election HTML 18 36 5 38 4 1 ±0.0 pp 32,268 Election
Hull—Aylmer
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Segma Research HTML 11 29 42 13 2 0 ±4.4 pp 500 IVR2008 Election HTML 15 37 20 22 5 0 ±0.0 pp 52,707 Election
Jonquière—Alma
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 34 4 32 25 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR Segma Research HTML 36 5 30 26 3 0 ±4.6 pp 432 IVR2008 Election HTML 53 5 5 38 0 0 ±0.0 pp 51,395 Election
Lévis—Bellechasse
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Segma Research HTML 38 5 23 26 6 0 ±5.7 pp 300 IVR2008 Election HTML 46 15 11 25 3 0 ±0.0 pp 54,849 Election
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Segma Research HTML 35 12 23 29 1 0 ±5.7 pp 300 IVR2008 Election HTML 47 13 13 25 2 0 ±0.0 pp 52,732 Election
Louis-Hébert
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 22 13 32 30 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 28 24 9 36 2 0 ±0.0 pp 58,529 Election
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 37 8 37 17 1 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 47 13 10 27 3 0 ±0.0 pp 50,966 Election
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 0 8 31 28 3 29 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 0 16 13 32 3 36 ±0.0 pp 46,095 Election
Québec
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 15 10 34 34 6 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 26 18 12 42 3 0 ±0.0 pp 51,067 Election
Richmond—Arthabaska
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Cara Telecom HTML 21 6 20 47 6 0 ±4.8 pp 420 IVR2008 Election HTML 29 13 9 46 3 1 ±0.0 pp 52,692 Election
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 47 4 27 20 2 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR Segma Research HTML 54 5 11 28 2 0 ±4.6 pp 432 IVR2008 Election HTML 44 10 5 40 2 0 ±0.0 pp 37,307 Election
Trois-Rivières
Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method CROP HTML 17 8 42 28 5 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR2008 Election HTML 24 18 9 45 3 0 ±0.0 pp 39,579 Election
See also Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2011
Notes Notes In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research , retrieved October 17, 2012 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.
References