The 2018 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Illinois. Republican Governor Bruce Rauner ran for reelection to a second term in office, but was defeated by Democratic nominee JB Pritzker. This is the most recent Illinois gubernatorial contest in which an incumbent was defeated and the last time the governorship of Illinois changed partisan control.
Rauner oversaw a historic budget crisis as governor that severely affected his popularity. His approval rating declined to just 36% in 2017, and he was widely viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country. Rauner struggled to galvanize conservatives after making several policy concessions to Democrats and was nearly ousted in the Republican primary by state senator Jeanne Ives. By October 2018, The Cook Political Report assessed that "there is no path to victory for Rauner."
Pritzker ultimately defeated Rauner by nearly 16 points, the largest gubernatorial victory in Illinois since Jim Edgar's 1994 reelection. Rauner's loss was the widest margin of defeat for any incumbent governor since Ernie Fletcher of Kentucky was ousted in 2007. This was one of seven governorships Democrats flipped during the 2018 cycle. Rauner's 38.8% of the vote was the worst performance for an incumbent Illinois governor since 1912; he also received the lowest percentage of the vote for a Republican since 1912. With Pritzker winning by a margin of 15.7%, this was the biggest gubernatorial margin of victory for a Democrat since 1932. He was the first Democrat to carry DuPage County since 1932, Kane and Kendall counties since 1852, and DeKalb County since 1972.
Background The primaries and general elections coincided with those for federal congressional races and those for other state offices. The election was part of the 2018 Illinois elections. Primary elections were held on March 20.
For the primary election, turnout was 25.76%, with 2,046,710 votes cast. For the general election, turnout was 56.15%, with 4,547,657 votes cast.
Republican primary Candidates Nominated Bruce Rauner, incumbent governor Running mate: Evelyn Sanguinetti, incumbent lieutenant governor
Eliminated in primary Jeanne Ives, state representativeHinz, Greg. "Did Rauner just uncork a challenge from the right?", Crain's Chicago Business, September 29, 2017. Retrieved September 29, 2017. Running mate: Richard Morthland, Rock Island County board member and former state representative
Withdrew William J. Kelly, radio host and perennial candidate (running as an independent) Running mate: Brian Leggero, candidate for mayor of Rockford in 2017 Former running mate: Ray Tranchant, immigration activist
Endorsements
Campaign A November 2017 Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found that 83% of Republican voters had never heard of Ives. Ives' campaign's fourth-quarter fundraising totals were around $500,000. On February 28, 2018, Ives' campaign released a new book entitled The Governor You Don't Know: The Other Side of Bruce Rauner, authored by Chicago GOP chairman and Ives campaign chairman Chris Cleveland, with a foreword by conservative State Representative Tom Morrison.
Rauner and Ives held their first and only scheduled forum on January 29, before the Chicago Tribune editorial board." Rauner largely ignored his opponent and focused on attacking Speaker Mike Madigan, comparing him to his likely Democratic challenger, J. B. Pritzker. Ives, on the other hand, attacked Rauner for being an ineffective governor and alienating social conservatives. Shortly after the debate, conservative Lake Forest businessman Richard Uihlein donated $500,000 to Ives' campaign.
Rauner and Ives were invited by the University of Illinois Springfield to debate a second time; Rauner declined the invitation.
Ives released an ad titled "Thank You, Bruce Rauner" on February 3, 2018, in an attempt to challenge her opponent's commitment to conservative values. Her ad featured actors outfitted to portray a transgender woman, an anti-fascist protester wearing a hood and a bandana over his face, a member of the Chicago Teachers Union and a Women's March activist. After Ives' ad made its rounds on the internet, advocacy groups, some Republicans and Democrats lashed out against Ives, calling her video bigoted and offensive. The ad increased Ives's profile and name recognition. Three Chicago-area newspaper editorial boards came out against the ad: the Chicago Tribune said "The portrayals are demeaning;" the Daily Herald said that Ives should take down the ad, which "attacks people of Illinois, not opponent", and the Chicago Sun-Times wrote, "Jeanne Ives goes for the bully vote with her TV ad."
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BruceRauner JeanneIves UndecidedOgden & Fry (R-Ives)Ogden & Fry (R-Ives) March 14, 2018 787 ± 3.5% 42% 35% 23%Southern Illinois UniversitySouthern Illinois University February 19–25, 2018 259 ± 6.0% 51% 31% 18%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America January 14–16, 2018 1,026 ± 3.1% 65% 21% 15%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America October 25–29, 2017 1,064 ± 3.0% 64% 19% 16%Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC) October 12, 2017 495 ± 4.5% 59% 14% 28%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BillBrady JeanneIves KyleMcCarter DanProft BruceRauner UndecidedOgden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC)Ogden & Fry (R-Liberty Principles PAC) October 2, 2017 545 ± 4.3% 9% 5% 2% 8% 22% 54%
Results Despite a 14% decrease in Republican primary votes cast, Rauner increased his overall vote total by 9% compared to the 2014 primary. In 2018, he managed to capture a narrow majority of the votes, with 51.5%, in his victory over conservative Ives. By comparison, in 2014 Rauner only received 40.2% of the primary vote in his narrow win victory over Kirk Dillard, Bill Brady, and Dan Rutherford.
In 2018, Rauner did well in central Illinois compared to the Republican primary four years earlier, when he managed 30% in the downstate region and finished 2nd to Kirk Dillard. In 2018, he carried the region with 52%.
However, the result was still considered surprisingly close, and indicated widespread dissatisfaction with Rauner's governorship among more conservative Republicans.
Democratic primary
Candidates Nominated JB Pritzker, venture capitalist and candidate for in 1998 Running mate: Juliana Stratton, state representative
Eliminated in primary Daniel Biss, state senator Running mate: Litesa Wallace, state representative Former running mate: Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, Chicago Alderman Bob Daiber, Madison County Regional Superintendent of Schools Running mate: Jonathan W. Todd, social worker Tio Hardiman, former director of CeaseFire and candidate for governor in 2014 Running mate: Patricia Avery, president and CEO of the Champaign County chapter of the NAACP Chris Kennedy, former chairman of the University of Illinois Board of Trustees and member of the Kennedy family Running mate: Ra Joy, nonprofit executiveSfondeles, Tina. "Kennedy chooses running mate: Ra Joy, who lost son to gun violence ", Chicago Sun-Times, September 14, 2017. Retrieved September 14, 2017. Robert Marshall, physician and perennial candidate Running mate: Dennis Cole
Removed from ballot Terry Getz, corrections officer (filed on November 29, 2017, but did so without a running mate or submitting any signatures)
Withdrew Scott Drury, state representative (running for attorney general) Running mate: Alex Hirsch, political operative Alex Paterakis, civil engineer and business owner Ameya Pawar, Chicago Alderman Running mate: Tyrone Coleman, mayor of Cairo
Declined Cheri Bustos, U.S. representative Arne Duncan, former United States Secretary of Education Dick Durbin, U.S. senator Mike Frerichs, Illinois Treasurer Valerie Jarrett, former Senior Advisor to the President Robin Kelly, U.S. representative Lisa Madigan, Illinois Attorney General Andy Manar, state senator Barack Obama, former president of the United States and U.S. senator Michelle Obama, former First Lady of the United States Penny Pritzker, former United States Secretary of Commerce Pat Quinn, former governor of Illinois (ran for Attorney General) Heather Steans, state senator Kurt Summers, Chicago city treasurer
Endorsements
Forums The Illinois LGBTQ Forum: The Democratic Candidates for Governor"The Illinois LGBTQ Forum: The Democratic Candidates for Governor", official website. was held on December 6, 2017, and organized by Affinity Community Services, the Association of Latinos/as Motivating Action (ALMA), the Equality Illinois Institute, and Pride Action Tank. Candidates who attended included Daniel Biss, Tio Hardiman, Ameya Pawar, J. B. Pritzker, and Chris Kennedy.
Whitney Young High School hosted the first student-run gubernatorial debate in the United States on October 4, 2017. All seven then-current candidates attended, meaning Daniel Biss, Bob Daiber, Tio Hardiman, Chris Kennedy, Alex Paterakis, Ameya Pawar, and JB Pritzker."Students on stage for the gubernatorial debate", chicago.cbslocal.com.
The Illinois chapter of progressive advocacy organization Our Revolution sponsored a forum at the Chicago Teachers Union headquarters on October 8, 2017. Candidates voiced similar opinions on single-payer health care, gun control, and the minimum wage, but differed on a hypothetical state deal with Amazon and relationships with powerful Illinois Speaker Mike Madigan.
The Democratic candidates held their first televised debate on January 23. All six candidates met again a week later on January 30. The debate was not televised but was uploaded to WSIL-TV's YouTube channel.
Another debate was held on February 21, which was hosted by the University of Illinois Springfield. Chris Kennedy did not attend due to a back injury, although all five other candidates participated. Another major debate took place on March 1. It involved issues such as gun control, Blagojevich's tapes, sexual harassment, and relatability. Another debate took place the next day in Springfield. The topics involved Madigan, sexual harassment, among other issues. The spotlight remained on the top contenders: Chris Kennedy, JB Pritzker, and Daniel Biss.
Pritzker was criticized for refusing to commit to attend the only live-television debate planned outside the Chicago media market, prompting the debate's cancellation. Biss and Kennedy gathered petition signatures to encourage the debate's continuation, and Biss commented that "JB is borrowing a page from the billionaire playbook, avoiding debates and shunning reporters who ask tough questions." Another debate took place on March 14, revolving around topics including Pritzker's newly reported offshore holdings, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, and education. Kennedy and Biss both attacked Pritzker on the offshore businesses, Kennedy "saying it's like a job interview, and Pritzker lying to get the job", and Biss saying "Pritzker did that to avoid taxes".
Polling