2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term. Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat, or to drop out if they had already filed. The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district

Eliminated in primary Lance Berland John L. Berman, engineer Derek Ellis, quality assurance technician Bob Hamilton, businessman Kris Kobach, former secretary of state of Kansas and Republican nominee for governor of Kansas in 2018 Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2002 Brian Matlock, economics graduate student John Miller Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of EducationSteve Roberts files for U.S. Senate to replace Pat Roberts, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 13, 2020. Gabriel Mark Robles

Withdrawn Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House in District 2) Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator Susan Wagle, president of the Kansas Senate

Declined Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas and lieutenant governor of Kansas (endorsed Roger Marshall) Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer (running for reelection) Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for lieutenant governor of Kansas in 2018 Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. senator (endorsed Roger Marshall) Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State

Primary debate In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.Five GOP candidates for U.S. Senate spar on electability, threat of Democrat victory, Capital Journal, Tim Carpenter, May 23, 2020. Retrieved May 25, 2020. Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall, in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race. Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections." Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said. In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobHamilton KrisKobach DaveLindstrom RogerMarshall SusanWagle Other UndecidedCiviqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 419 (LV) –15%35%4%26% –4%16% May 28, 2020 Wagle withdraws from the racePublic Opinion Strategies (R)Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 10–12, 2020600 (V) ±  4%6%26%4%33%7%–24% March 30, 2020 Hamilton announces his candidacyMcLaughlin & Associates (R)McLaughlin & Associates (R) February 12–16, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 2%40%5%23%8%–21%co/efficient (R)co/efficient (R) January 19–20, 2020 1,246 LV ± 3.2% –29% –29% 6% 9% 28%The Tarrance Group (R)The Tarrance Group (R)October 21–23, 2019607 (LV)± 4.1% –43%3%24%8%5%16%

with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Kris Kobach Roger MarshallPublic Opinion Strategies (R)Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 10–12, 2020600 (V)± 4%34%48%

with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Bob Hamilton Kris Kobach Roger MarshallPublic Opinion Strategies (R)May 10–12, 2020600 (V)± 4%10%29%41%

with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Mike Pompeo Other UndecidedNRSCNRSCOctober 21–23, 2019607 (LV)± 4.1%17%11%54%7%10%

with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Kris Kobach Mike PompeoNRSCOctober 21–23, 2019607 (LV)± 4.1%24%68%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator

Eliminated in primary Robert Tillman, Kansas National Guard veteran and perennial candidate

Withdrawn Elliot Adams, database developer Nancy Boyda, former U.S. representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district (endorsed Bollier) Corbie Crow, certified public accountant Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier) Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan Adam Smith

Declined Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives, nominee for governor in 2014 and KS-02 in 2018 Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner Sarah Smarsh, author Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for governor of Kansas in 2018 Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018

Endorsements

Results

Other candidates Libertarian Party Nominee Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran

Independents Withdrawn Paul Tuten

General election Post-primary endorsements

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 29, 2020Inside Elections October 28, 2020Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2, 2020Daily Kos October 30, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020RCPOctober 23, 2020DDHQNovember 3, 2020538November 2, 2020EconomistNovember 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RogerMarshall (R) BarbaraBollier (D) JasonBuckley (L) Other UndecidedData For ProgressData For ProgressOctober 27 – November 1, 20201,121 (LV)± 2.9%51%45%4%1% –VCreek/AMGVCreek/AMGOctober 25–27, 20201,149 (LV)± 3.8%47%43%2% –8%GBAO Strategies (D)GBAO Strategies (D) October 25–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%46%4%4% –47%47% – – –Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)October 19–20, 2020897 (V)± 3.3%43%43%5% –9%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotOctober 18–20, 2020755 (LV)± 4%46%42%4%2%6%co/efficient (R)co/efficient (R)October 18–20, 20202,453 (LV)± 3.7%51%39%2% –8%VCreek/AMG (R)VCreek/AMG (R)September 29–30, 20203,104 (LV)± 1.75%42%45%2% –11%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily KosSeptember 26–29, 2020677 (LV)± 4.5%50%43% –2%5%GBAO Strategies (D)GBAO Strategies (D)September 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%43%45%7% – –Data For Progress (D)Data For Progress (D)September 14–19, 2020883 (LV)± 3.3%40%40%5% –15%42%42% – –15%co/efficient (R)co/efficient (R)September 15–16, 2020794 (LV)± 3.5%43%39%2% –16%SurveyUSASurveyUSAAugust 8–9, 20201,202 (LV)± 3.3%46%44% – –10%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)August 5–6, 2020864 (V)± 3.3%43% 42% – –15%Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2%42% 41% – 9% 8%NMB Research (R)NMB Research (R) May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5%46% 35% – – 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMarch 10–11, 20201,567 (V)± 2.5%47% 37% – – –

Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobHamilton (R) BarbaraBollier (D) Other UndecidedCiviqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 40%41% 11% 8%

Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KrisKobach (R) BarbaraBollier (D) Other UndecidedCiviqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 41%42% 11% 7%NMB Research/NRSC (R)NMB Research/NRSC (R) May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5%44% 43% – 12%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 44% – 13%McLaughlin & Associates (R)McLaughlin & Associates (R) February 12–13, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6%47% 38% – 15%DFM ResearchDFM Research January 30 – February 6, 2020600 (A)± 4.0%43%43%4%10%

Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin KrisKobach (R) BarryGrissom (D) UndecidedTarrance Group/NRSC (R)Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)June 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4%42%52% –

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin GenericRepublican (R) GenericDemocrat (D) Undecidedco/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PACco/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PACSeptember 15–16, 2020794 (LV)± 3.5%53%39% –Public Policy Polling (D) April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 50% 40% 11%DFM Research/SMART Transportation DivisionDFM Research/SMART Transportation Division January 30 – February 6, 2020600 (A)± 4.0%39%31%30%Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)June 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%36% –

Results On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race.

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic Douglas (largest city: Lawrence) Shawnee (largest city: Topeka) Wyandotte (largest city: Kansas City)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Johnson (largest city: Overland Park) Riley (largest city: Manhattan)

By congressional district Marshall won three of four congressional districts. District Marshall Bollier Representative66%29%Roger MarshallTracey Mann 52% 42%Steve WatkinsJake LaTurner 42% 53%Sharice Davids 56% 39%Ron Estes

Notes

Partisan clients

See also 2020 Kansas elections List of United States senators from Kansas

References

Further reading

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Official campaign websites Barbara Bollier (D) for Senate Jason Buckley (L) for Senate Roger Marshall (R) for Senate