In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.
The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.
Polling accuracy The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election. PartyActual voteMost accurate pollsterPollsterPoll datePredicted voteError margin AKP 40.7 ANAR 27 May 40.5 0.2 CHP 25.1 MAK 18–26 May 24.9 0.2 ORC 30 May – 1 June 25.3 0.2 MHP 16.5 Gezici 2 June 16.5 0.0 HDP 13.0 Konda 30–31 May 12.6 0.4 Overall most accurate ANAR 27 May – 0.9
Controversies According to media reports, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AKP will lose seats in the election.
Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AKP will lose power in the next election.
Vote share polling
Graphical summary
Poll results DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPOthersLead1 Nov Election results 46,555,267 49.3 25.6 12.0 10.6 2.5 24–29 Oct Andy-Ar 2,400 43.7 27.1 14.0 13.0 2.2 24–25 Oct Konda 3,574 41.7 27.9 14.2 13.8 2.3 24–25 Oct A&G 4,536 47.2 25.3 13.5 12.2 1.8 24–25 Oct Gezici 4,864 43.0 26.1 14.9 12.2 3.8 22–24 Oct Metropoll 2,576 43.3 25.9 14.8 13.4 2.6 21–24 Oct ORC 2,650 43.3 27.4 14.0 12.2 3.1 22 Oct 17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek 2,592 39.1 28.1 14.4 14.2 4.2 16–20 Oct AKAM 24,540 40.5 28.2 14.3 14.2 2.8 16–20 Oct Betimar 2,000 44.3 25.5 13.6 13.0 3.6 13–19 Oct Konsensus 2,002 43.0 28.6 13.1 11.9 3.4 17–18 Oct Konda ? 41.5 28.0 14.7 12.7 3.1 12–17 Oct Gezici 4,864 41.3 27.0 15.6 12.5 3.6 12–17 Oct MAK – 43.5 27.8 13.6 12.1 3.0 12–16 Oct Argetus 4,472 43.1 26.2 15.1 12.6 3.0 10–16 Oct Perspektif 1,255 42.3 27.6 14.7 12.8 2.6 10–15 Oct Denge – 43.4 25.9 13.7 13.6 3.4 8–15 Oct Sonar 3,000 40.5 27.3 15.2 13.1 3.9 10 Oct 5–9 Oct Samer 4,144 41.4 26.9 15.4 13.9 2.4 4–7 Oct MetroPoll 2,526 42.5 26.3 16.3 13.0 1.9 3–6 Oct Andy-Ar 1,764 42.6 27.1 15.2 12.1 3.0 3–4 Oct Konda ? 41.0 29.2 14.8 12.2 2.8 3–4 Oct Gezici 4,860 40.8 27.6 15.8 13.6 2.2 28 Sep – 1 Oct TÜSİAR 3,041 43.0 26.4 14.6 12.1 4.0 26–27 Sep Gezici 4,860 39.8 28.2 17.3 12.3 2.4 17–24 Sep LRC 2,425 38.9 26.0 17.9 12.3 4.9 23 Sep AKAM 1,214 38.9 27.7 14.5 14.6 4.3 19–23 Sep MAK 5,500 43.7 26.7 14.1 11.5 4.1 22 Sep 19–21 Sep Ada 3,000 44.7 27.6 12.9 11.8 3.0 18 Sep 12–15 Sep ORC 2,760 44.0 27.8 13.4 11.0 3.8 2–15 Sep KURD-TEKPoll takes into account overseas results 5,348 38.5 26.7 17.5 14.6 2.8 12–13 Sep Gezici 5,000 39.3 28.1 16.8 13.5 2.3 5–13 Sep Konsensus 1,500 43.3 27.6 13.8 12.6 2.7 27 Aug – 13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark 157,907 44.2 25.4 14.0 12.5 3.9 12 Sep 5–12 Sep Sonar 2,500 38.2 28.0 18.2 13.7 1.9 5–6 Sep Konda ? 41.7 24.8 16.4 12.3 4.8 2–5 Sep MetroPoll 2,540 41.4 27.3 15.3 13.0 3.2 3 Sep Varyans 15,000 43.9 26.2 14.1 12.3 3.5 2 Sep KamuAR 5,249 42.3 26.0 18.7 11.9 1.2 28 Aug 22–25 Aug ORC 2,450 43.7 27.5 14.3 11.2 3.3 24 Aug 24 Aug AKAM 1,624 39.7 28.5 12.6 14.8 4.7 22–23 Aug Gezici 4,860 38.9 27.8 16.3 13.5 3.5 19–23 Aug Argetus 2,960 42.6 25.5 15.4 12.5 4.0 21 Aug MetroPoll 2,520 41.7 25.5 15.7 14.7 2.4 20 Aug CHP – 38.8 28.7 14.6 13.8 4.1 18 Aug 18 Aug Gezici – 39.2 26.4 16.2 14.1 4.1 13 Aug 13 Aug AKP – 43.8 25.5 15.4 12.5 2.8 8–11 Aug Andy-Ar 1,504 42.8 27.0 15.9 12.8 1.5 8–9 Aug Konda ? 43.6 25.5 14.7 12.8 3.4 7–9 Aug ORC 1,580 44.1 26.8 15.6 10.7 2.8 4–8 Aug MAK 5,500 44.7 25.3 15.6 10.7 3.7 24 Jul – 4 Aug SONAR 3,500 42.9 25.2 17.0 10.3 5.6 27 Jul AKAM 1,412 39.9 27.5 13.8 14.5 4.4 21 Jul 20 Jul 11–15 Jul ORC 3,200 43.5 27.0 15.5 10.9 3.1 4–5 Jul Gezici 4,860 40.1 26.1 14.7 14.2 4.9 29 Jun Andy-Ar 1,556 42.8 27.3 15.4 11.7 2.8 24 Jun MetroPoll 2,483 41.6 25.1 16.2 12.9 4.2 8 Jun IPSOS 1,750 45.0 25.0 14.0 12.0 3.0 7 Jun 45,121,773 40.725.116.513.04.712 Jun 2011 42,813,896 49.826.013.0 – 11.2
Seat predictions DatePollsterSampleAKPCHPMHPHDPMajority22–24 Oct MetroPoll 2,576 17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek 2,592 16–20 Oct AKAM 24,540 16–20 Oct Betimar 2,000 17–18 Oct Gezici 4,864 3–4 Oct Gezici 4,860 26–27 Sep Gezici 4,860 23 Sep AKAM 1,214 27 Aug – 13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark 157,907 24 Aug AKAM 1,624 22–23 Aug Gezici 4,860 21 Aug MetroPoll 2,520 20 Aug CHP – 27 Jul AKAM 1,412 7 Jun– 12 Jun 2011 June 2011 general election –
See also Opinion polling for the Turkish general election, June 2015
References