2019 Prince Edward Island general election

The 2019 Prince Edward Island general election was held to elect the members of the 66th General Assembly of Prince Edward Island. The vote in 26 of the 27 districts was held on 23 April 2019, while the vote for the member from Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park was deferred to 15 July due to the death of the Green Party's candidate. However, Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park still voted in a referendum on electoral reform. Natalie Jameson won the deferred election in the district.

The Progressive Conservatives under new leader Dennis King won thirteen seats (including the deferred seat) to form a minority government. The Greens under leader Peter Bevan-Baker won eight seats to form the Official Opposition. The Liberals under Premier Wade MacLauchlan were reduced to six seats and MacLauchlan lost in his own district. The Progressive Conservatives' share of the popular vote was steady at 37%, the Green Party enjoyed a 20 point increase to 31%, and the Liberals' share dropped 11 points to 30%. The Greens won several seats in or near the two cities of Charlottetown and Summerside, while the Progressive Conservatives took several more rural seats from the Liberals. The result was considered a major political upset, as the Progressive Conservatives won a plurality of the popular vote and came within one seat of an outright majority in the legislative assembly despite having not lead in any opinion polls since the previous provincial election, and polling had generally indicated the race to be between the Greens and the Liberals; a few polls taken in the weeks prior to the election had seen the Progressive Conservatives move into second place ahead of the Liberals, but even then the polls had consistently predicted a Green victory.

A referendum on electoral reform that asked Islanders if they wished to adopt a mixed-member proportional representation voting system was held in conjunction with the election. The initiative failed to pass in at least 60% of the districts as required under provincial legislation to proceed so the province did not change from the first past the post system in subsequent elections. As well, the Island-wide popular vote showed about 51% of voters voted to stay with the current first-past-the-post voting system while about 49% voted for the proposed change.

The election was the first time since the 1890 Prince Edward Island general election that the province elected a minority government,"Seven things to know about the P.E.I. election results" . CTV News, 23 April 2019. the first time in the province's history that a significant number of voters turned to a third party besides the dominant Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, and the first time that a Green Party reached official opposition status in any Canadian provincial legislature."PC minority, Green Opposition will be 'a new era in Island politics'" . CBC News Prince Edward Island, 23 April 2019.

Background Under the provisions of the Prince Edward Island Elections Act, an election was required by the fixed date of 7 October 2019, unless it was called earlier. After months of speculation of an early election call, Premier Wade MacLauchlan announced the election at a rally on 26 March.

In the previous election, on 4 May 2015, the Liberal Party, led by Premier Wade MacLauchlan, was re-elected to a majority government, earning election in 18 out of the 27 ridings (and down 2 from their pre-election total). The official opposition Progressive Conservatives, under leader Rob Lantz, increased its seat count from 3 before the election to 8, despite Lantz losing in Charlottetown-Brighton. Meanwhile, the Green Party, under leader Peter Bevan-Baker, won its first ever seat, Bevan-Baker's, in Kellys Cross-Cumberland. The NDP were unable to win a seat, continuing their streak of being shut out of the legislature since 2000.

Despite the increase in the Progressive Conservatives' seat count, on 23 September of that year, Lantz stepped down as leader. Since Lantz's departure, The Progressive Conservatives held two leadership elections: one on 20 October 2017, selecting MLA James Aylward as their leader; and again on 9 February 2019, choosing Dennis King as their new leader following Aylward's announcement on 27 September 2018 his intention to resign when his successor was chosen.

Historical results from 1993 onwards

Results

Source : electionspei.ca

|align=left|Dennis King |align="right"|27 |align="right"|8 |align="right"|8 |align="right"|13 |align="right"| +5 |align="right"|30,415 |align="right"|36.73 |align="right"|–0.66

|align=left|Peter Bevan-Baker |align="right"|27 |align="right"|1 |align="right"|2 |align="right"|8 |align="right"| +7 |align="right"|25,302 |align="right"|30.55 |align="right"|+19.74

|align=left|Wade MacLauchlan |align="right"|27 |align="right"|18 |align="right"|16 |align="right"|6 |align="right"| –12 |align="right"|24,346 |align="right"|29.41 |align="right"|–11.42

|align=left|Joe Byrne |align="right"|24 |align="right"|0 |align="right"|0 |align="right"|0 |align="right"|– |align="right"|2,454 |align="right"|2.96 |align="right"|–8.01

|colspan="2" align="left"|Independent |align="right"|3 |align="right"|0 |align="right"|1 |align="right"|0 |align="right"|- |align="right"|282 |align="right"|0.34 |align="right"|+0.34 |- !colspan="11"| |- |colspan="8" align=left|Blank and invalid ballots |align="right"|386 |align="right"|0.46 |align="right"| |- | style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Total | style="text-align:right;"|108 | style="text-align:right;"|27 | style="text-align:right;"|27 | style="text-align:right;"|27 | style="text-align:right;"| | style="text-align:right;"|83,185 | style="text-align:right;"|100 | style="text-align:right;"| |- |colspan="8" align=left|Registered voters / turnout |align="right"|107,109 |align="right"|77.66 |align="right"|

Synopsis of results + 2019 PEI general election - synopsis of riding results, grouped by federal riding Riding 2015 Winning party Turnoutincluding spoilt ballots Votesminor political parties receiving less than 1% of the national popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately Party Votes Share Margin# Margin% PC Green Lib NDP TotalCardiganBelfast-Murray River PC PC1,545 52.5%764 25.9% 77.70%1,545 781 615 – – 2,941Georgetown-Pownalcolspan=2 PC1,493 48.6%628 20.4% 82.03%1,493 865 663 49 – 3,070Georgetown-St. Peters PCcolspan=2 Mermaid-Stratfordcolspan=2 Grn1,152 38.1%218 7.2% 78.85%934 1,152 902 38 – 3,026Montague-Kilmuir Lib PC1,373 46.4%588 19.9% 76.63%1,373 675 785 124 – 2,957Morell-Donaghcolspan=2 PC1,752 57.6%1,055 34.7% 79.06%1,752 697 557 35 – 3,041Morell-Mermaid PCcolspan=2 Souris-Elmira PC PC1,347 44.7%486 16.1% 81.31%1,347 804 861 – – 3,012Stanhope-Marshfieldcolspan=2 PC1,300 39.5%104 3.1% 81.31%1,300 747 1,196 46 – 3,289Stratford-Keppochcolspan=2 PC1,270 42.5%388 13.0% 80.80%1,270 805 882 31 – 2,988Stratford-Kinlock PCcolspan=2 Vernon River-Stratford Libcolspan=2 MalpequeBorden-Kinkora PC PC1,680 52.1%639 19.8% 80.33%1,680 1,041 417 32 54 3,224Brackley-Hunter Rivercolspan=2 PC1,315 41.7%416 13.2% 80.05%1,315 879 899 57 – 3,150Cornwall-Meadowbank Lib Lib1,643 47.9%506 14.8% 80.28%602 1,137 1,643 48 – 3,430Kellys Cross-Cumberland Grncolspan=2 Kensington-Malpeque PC PC2,008 62.1%1,203 37.2% 79.64%2,008 805 389 31 – 3,233New Haven-Rocky Pointcolspan=2 Grn1,870 53.8%802 23.1% 82.83%1,068 1,870 515 – 26 3,479Rustico-Emerald PC PC1,920 57.5%1,021 30.6% 80.44%1,920 899 489 30 – 3,338York-Oyster Bed Libcolspan=2 CharlottetownCharlottetown-Belvederecolspan=2 Grn1,286 40.4%288 9.1% 75.46%998 1,286 846 55 – 3,185Charlottetown-Brighton Lib Grn1,301 40.3%78 2.4% 78.00%567 1,301 1,223 138 – 3,229Charlottetown-Hillsborough Parkcolspan=2 PC1,080 43.7%371 15.0% 60.46%1,080 709 635 46 – 2,470Tracadie-Hillsborough Park Libcolspan=2 Charlottetown-Lewis Point Libcolspan=2 Charlottetown-Parkdale Libcolspan=2 Charlottetown-Sherwood Libcolspan=2 Charlottetown-Victoria Park Lib Grn1,272 40.5%397 12.6% 74.55%656 1,272 875 338 – 3,141Charlottetown-West Royaltycolspan=2 Lib1,079 35.2%113 3.7% 73.18%766 966 1,079 56 202 3,069Charlottetown-Winsloecolspan=2 Lib1,420 42.0%363 10.8% 80.46%865 1,057 1,420 41 – 3,383West Royalty-Springvale Libcolspan=2 EgmontAlberton-Bloomfieldcolspan=2 PC1,312 45.5%159 5.5% 81.37%1,312 317 1,153 99 – 2,881Alberton-Roseville Libcolspan=2 Evangeline-Miscouche Lib Lib1,100 44.6%339 13.8% 77.89%575 761 1,100 33 – 2,469O'Leary-Inverness Lib Lib1,102 40.9%204 7.6% 79.02%462 231 1,102 898 – 2,693Summerside-St. Eleanors Libcolspan=2 Summerside-South Drivecolspan=2 Green1,302 43.9%364 12.3% 66.62%662 1,302 938 65 – 2,967Summerside-Wilmot Lib Green1,258 39.0%221 6.9% 74.34%1,037 1,258 892 39 – 3,226Tignish-Palmer Road Lib Lib1,388 49.3%586 20.8% 81.71%802 584 1,388 44 – 2,818Tyne Valley-Linkletter Libcolspan=2 Tyne Valley-Sherbrookecolspan=2 Green1,101 35.6%75 2.4% 75.98%1,026 1,101 882 81 – 3,090

= open seat = turnout is above provincial average = incumbent re-elected in same riding = previously incumbent in another riding = other incumbent renominated

+ Resulting composition of the 66th General Assembly of Prince Edward Island Seats PartyRedistribution statusReasonPCGrnLibTotalNew seatsTaken by previous incumbents from other ridings 3 2 1 6Ouster of previous incumbent 1 1Previous incumbents defeated 2 2 4Open seats gained 3 3Subtotal8 4 2 14Seats carried overSeats retained by incumbents 5 4 9Incumbents defeated 3 3Open seats gained 1 1Total 13 8 6 27

Results by region

+ Regional summary of results (2019)Region Seats won Vote share (%) Change (pp)PCGrnLibPCGrnLibNDPPCGrnLibNDP Major swingCardigan6 1 – 46.18 27.47 25.03 1.32 +1.23 +22.02 -13.13 -6.53→ 17.58Malpeque5 1 1 42.75 31.88 23.97 1.05 +4.54 +13.12 -12.36 -5.64→ 12.74Charlottetown1 3 2 26.69 35.67 32.89 3.64 -4.39 +23.26 -7.80 -12.18→ 17.72Egmont1 3 3 29.18 27.58 37.02 6.23 -5.79 +21.57 -11.98 -3.78→ 16.78Total13 8 6 36.73 30.56 29.40 2.96 -0.66 +19.75 -11.43 -8.02→ 15.59

Detailed analysis + Position attained in seats contestedParty 1st 2nd 3rd 4th1368–811716912––1–21–––3

+ Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place resultsParties Seats12771 Total 27

Timeline 2015 4 May – The Liberal Party, led by Premier Wade MacLauchlan, wins a majority government and the Progressive Conservative Party forms the opposition. The Green Party, under leader Peter Bevan-Baker, wins its first ever seat, with Bevan-Baker winning Kellys Cross-Cumberland. 23 September – Progressive Conservative leader Rob Lantz resigns, effective that day. 15 October – Jamie Fox, MLA for Borden-Kinkora, is chosen as the Progressive Conservative interim leader, defeating opponent Darlene Compton.

2016 1 August – Liberal MLA for Summerside-Wilmot Janice Sherry resigns her seat. 17 October – Chris Palmer is elected in the Summerside-Wilmot by-election, retaining the seat for the Liberals. 27 October – Voting for the 2016 Plebiscite on Democratic Renewal, a non-binding referendum on changing the electoral system, begins. 7 November – Voting in the 2016 Plebiscite on Democratic Renewal ends, indicating mixed member proportional representation as the preferred choice for electing MLAs. 22 November – The Legislative Assembly does not adopt the Plebiscite on Democratic Renewal's results and instead approves a motion to hold a second referendum at the next provincial election.

2017 19 October – Liberal MLA for Charlottetown-Parkdale Doug Currie resigns his seat.

2019 Prince Edward Island general election

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