Post-election pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

Liberal/National seats (54)MarginalEast HillsGlenn BrookesLIB0.4%Upper HunterMichael JohnsenNAT2.2%MonaroJohn BarilaroNAT2.5%LismoreThomas GeorgeNAT2.9 v GRNCoogeeBruce Notley-SmithLIB2.9%TweedGeoff ProvestNAT3.2%Fairly safePenrithStuart AyresLIB6.2%GoulburnPru GowardLIB6.6%OatleyMark CoureLIB6.6%HolsworthyMelanie GibbonsLIB6.7%HeathcoteLee EvansLIB7.6%BegaAndrew ConstanceLIB8.2%KiamaGareth WardLIB8.7%Seven HillsMark TaylorLIB8.7%Myall LakesStephen BromheadNAT8.7%TerrigalAdam CrouchLIB9.0%South CoastShelley HancockLIB9.6%MulgoaTanya DaviesLIB9.7%ClarenceChris GulaptisNAT9.7%SafeTamworthKevin AndersonNAT10.0% v INDOxleyMelinda PaveyNAT10.9%RydeVictor DominelloLIB11.5%RiverstoneKevin ConollyLIB12.2%ParramattaGeoff LeeLIB12.9%Wagga WaggaDaryl MaguireLIB12.9%BarwonKevin HumphriesNAT12.9%MirandaEleni PetinosLIB13.0%AlburyGreg AplinLIB13.2%Coffs HarbourAndrew FraserNAT14.3%BathurstPaul TooleNAT15.8%EppingDamien TudehopeLIB16.2%WollondillyJai RowellLIB17.3%HawkesburyDominic PerrottetLIB17.8%Lane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB17.8%CamdenChris PattersonLIB18.3%DrummoyneJohn SidotiLIB18.8%HornsbyMatt KeanLIB18.9%Port MacquarieLeslie WilliamsNAT19.0%CootamundraKatrina HodgkinsonNAT20.4%DubboTroy GrantNAT20.4%CronullaMark SpeakmanLIB20.9%North ShoreJillian SkinnerLIB21.2% v GRNOrangeAndrew GeeNAT21.7%Baulkham HillsDavid ElliottLIB21.8%MurrayAdrian PiccoliNAT22.7% v INDVaucluseGabrielle UptonLIB22.9% v GRNKu-ring-gaiAlister HenskensLIB23.0%WilloughbyGladys BerejiklianLIB24.4% v GRNManlyMike BairdLIB24.5% v GRNWakehurstBrad HazzardLIB25.2%PittwaterRob StokesLIB25.7% v GRNNorthern TablelandsAdam MarshallNAT27.1%DavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB28.8% v GRNCastle HillRay WilliamsLIB29.4% Labor seats (34)Marginal GosfordKathy SmithALP0.2% The EntranceDavid MehanALP0.4% StrathfieldJodi McKayALP1.8% GranvilleJulia FinnALP2.1% ProspectHugh McDermottALP3.4% Port StephensKate WashingtonALP4.7% RockdaleSteve KamperALP4.8% AuburnLuke FoleyALP5.9%Fairly safe KogarahChris MinnsALP6.9% CampbelltownGreg WarrenALP7.3% NewcastleTim CrakanthorpALP7.4% Blue MountainsTrish DoyleALP8.1% Macquarie FieldsAnoulack ChanthivongALP8.1% WyongDavid HarrisALP8.7% LondonderryPrue CarALP8.8% WollongongNoreen HayALP8.9% v INDSafeSummer HillJo HaylenALP10.5 v GRN MaroubraMichael DaleyALP10.8% CharlestownJodie HarrisonALP12.9% SwanseaYasmin CatleyALP13.0% BlacktownJohn RobertsonALP13.2% MaitlandJenny AitchisonALP13.8% BankstownTania MihailukALP14.0% HeffronRon HoenigALP14.1% Mount DruittEdmond AtallaALP15.4% CanterburyLinda BurneyALP15.7% ShellharbourAnna WatsonALP17.0% CabramattaNick LalichALP17.2% KeiraRyan ParkALP17.4% FairfieldGuy ZangariALP17.8% WallsendSonia HorneryALP20.8%LiverpoolPaul LynchALP20.9%LakembaJihad DibALP21.6%CessnockClayton BarrALP22.0%Crossbench seats (5)BallinaTamara SmithGRN3.1% v NATBalmainJamie ParkerGRN4.7% v ALPSydneyAlex GreenwichIND8.1 v LIBNewtownJenny LeongGRN9.3% v ALPLake MacquarieGreg PiperIND10.7 v ALP

References