Climate change in Mexico is causing widespread, possibly irreversible impacts including rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, drought, intensified hurricanes, and sea-level rise in coastal regions. These changes pose threats to water resources and agriculture, with rural communities and smallholder farmers relying on rain-fed agriculture being particularly vulnerable, and affecting crops including maize and coffee, contributing to economic insecurity. Climate change is impacting Mexican's health and exacerbating human migration. Climate change is increasing extinction risk for Mexico's biodiversity, with nearly 500 species listed as critically endangered.
In 2012, Mexico became the first major oil-producing emerging economy to enact climate legislation. Since then, Mexico has significantly increased its renewable electricity generation from wind and solar sources, however it is still dependent on fossil fuels for the majority of its energy. In 2023, Mexico was in the top 15 highest greenhouse gas emitters, contributing over 5 million tonnes, or 1.4% of the global total.
Mexico has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030, with an increased target of 40% conditional upon external support. Mexico also aims to cut black carbon emissions by 51% unconditionally and 70% with additional support by 2030 and has committed to net zero by 2050. Their updated National Climate Change Strategy emphasizes adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors such as energy, agriculture, water resources, forestry, and coastal zones. However, Climate Action Tracker's 2022 assessment indicated that Mexico's climate policies have regressed, with a renewed emphasis on fossil fuels and the dismantling of climate-related institutions, potentially hindering progress toward emission reduction targets. Mexico's current president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has made new promises to tackle climate change since taking office in October 2024.
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and precipitation
The mean annual temperature has increased by 2 °C in Mexico since 1960. Temperature is expected to increase in Mexico by 1.1–3.0 °C by 2060 and 1.3–4.8 °C by 2090. As such, scientists, including the IPCC, have classified the entire Central American region as a "climate change hot-spot" and "highly vulnerable" to climate change.
Climate change models, while highly variable, have projected an increase in the variation and intensity of precipitation (i.e. floods and droughts) for the climate of Mexico. The largest changes in precipitation are anticipated to occur during the summer months, especially in southern Mexico.A Brewing Storm: The climate change risks to coffee. September 2016. The Climate Institute. Precipitation is expected to decrease by −3% to −15% by 2090 for the country as a whole. Regionally, precipitation changes may be anywhere between −60% and +8%.
The frequency and severity of heatwaves and droughts have significantly increased in Mexico recently. With an average increase of 0.3°C every decade between 1991 and 2023, Mexico has the fastest warming rate in Latin America, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The year 2023 alone saw record-breaking temperatures, with several regions experiencing prolonged period above historical averages, placing additional stress on ecosystems, agriculture, and public health.
Changes in cloud forest distributions
Mountain cloud forests, especially in the Michoacán, act as dispersal corridors for many species that travel between habitats. These forests are highly subject to human disturbances such as mining and deforestation. This is important because the distribution of these forests is an integral factor of landscape connectivity. As the distribution of these forests changes due to climate effects, landscape connectivity is also affected. An evaluation of this property of connectivity of the mountain cloud forests of Michoacán was carried out by researchers in order to determine which areas would best benefit from greater conservation efforts.
Ecosystems and biodiversity Mexico contains a significant portion of the world's biodiversity, making it essential that "biodiversity hot-spots" present within its borders are properly protected from the effects of climate change. A large amount of land in Mexico is already designated as protected areas, as such, these conservation areas are refugia for a number of threatened species. Researchers are investigating how protected ecosystems in Mexico will be affected by climate change, and to what degree. Their research concluded that all 40 of the studied protected areas are expected to face warming temperatures while 30 will face decreased precipitation. The researchers suggest that their study be used to determine which of the protected areas in Mexico would benefit most from greater conservation efforts.
Butterflies Warming temperatures and land-use change are contributing to the movement of butterfly distributions up the Sierra de Juárez mountain range in Oaxaca, Mexico. In 2016, research was conducted to determine which butterfly species were moving either up or down the mountain range. The researchers determined that more species were moving upward than were moving downward. The researchers also concluded that, as a result of distribution changes, there was a greater abundance of generalist butterfly species in lowlands.
Mexican Bats
Bat distributions and ranges in Mexico are expected to shift as a result of changes in climate and increased land-use change. As an indicator species, bats can provide researchers useful information on the degree and extent of climate related species responses. Researchers analyzed previous records of bat occurrence across Mexico and used the derived data to project how bat species may respond to land-use change and climate effects. Results showed that habitat suitability for over half of 130 bat species is expected to decrease under current climate trends. The results also revealed that land-use change had less of an effect on habitat suitability for bats than climate change.
Small mammals in tropical ecosystems
A significant number of mammals are endemic to Mexico, an abundance of those species being small mammals. Many of these small mammals are known to inhabit tropical areas of Mexico, however, it is these tropical dry ecosystems that are highly subject to the effects of land-use change and climate change, making small mammals particularly vulnerable. Researchers set up a 19-year study of small mammal populations in the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve located in Jalisco, Mexico. This site was chosen by the researchers due to the occurrence of a significant amount of anthropogenic disturbance in the surrounding area. The researchers concluded that functional diversity in this area was lower than expected, and, as such, greater conservation efforts should be encouraged in the region.
Birds In order to determine how conservation efforts should be implemented in order to best protect breeding bird communities, a study was conducted by Aaron D. Flesch. This study of breeding bird communities in Mexico found that species were trending higher in altitude and towards the poles. In order to collect his data, Flesch used techniques that had been used by previous researchers and conducted an observational survey to determine biodiversity values. From the collected data and historical climate data, Flesch found that some lowland species moved north and others moved east to higher altitudes.
Impacts on people Economic Impacts
Agriculture
In 2017, an estimated seven million people were employed in the agricultural sector in Mexico. Climate change has caused many people in Mexico who depend on agriculture for employment to experience economic insecurity.
"Wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact," according to a July 2019 article. In the Yucatán Peninsula, the rise in temperature is affecting crop production. Extreme heat can negatively affect crops by slowing down growth and increasing moisture loss in the soil. Over the past 15 years until 2010, a Mayan village in Cancún, Tabi, experienced a 50-60% reduction in crop yield. Additionally, climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. Farmers are finding it more difficult to predict rainfall, which if predicted wrong can waste "an entire season's worth of seeds".
Drying and warming trends are altering and shifting climatic zones and agricultural environments worldwide, and Mexico is no exception. According to the World Bank, "agriculture [in Mexico] is highly vulnerable to weather extremes, in particular in the Northern parts of the country, where water scarcity is an issue, or the Southern parts of the country, where tropical storms cause extensive damage to crop[s]."
Exact predictions are difficult to make due to the complexity of the factors involved and the impacts will be highly region-specific; however, there is a general consensus that the productivity of crops and livestock will decline. Scientists also expect that certain insect pests and plant pathogens will survive and reproduce more often due to warming temperatures and are likely to invade new regions. Highland farmers and the rural poor are especially vulnerable to these climatic shifts. Decreased precipitation will place higher burdens on irrigated agriculture, on which much of the country's exported, economically-important crops rely. Conversely, more intense rainfall events will damage crop production. Higher temperatures are expected to increase evapotranspiration rates, leading to drying trends in soil moisture.
Climate change threatens not only food and economic security in Mexico, but is also tied to much larger, global food systems. In 2017, the United States imported $13.3 billion of fruits and vegetables from Mexico. Declining crop yields in Mexico due to climate change will ultimately impact global trade networks, national economies, and food security in countries that are, perhaps, geographically distant; yet through free-trade policies such as NAFTA and USMCA, have become highly dependent on Mexican agriculture.
Impacts on maize Maize is of central importance to Mexican agriculture, occupying the largest cultivated area in the country. It is a critical component of the diets and nutritional intake of both the urban and rural populations. A large number of smallholder farmers in Mexico depend on rain-fed maize for their livelihoods, leaving these farmers particularly vulnerable to temperature and precipitation fluxes from climate change. Mexico's maize yields are expected to decline from 1555 to 1440 kg/ha by 2055. An absolute decline of 883,200 t. in maize annual production is estimated to occur within this timeframe. Maize is closely tied to Mexican identity, thus any decline in maize productivity and diversity will also have important socio-cultural and political consequences.
Mexico (Mesoamerica more generally) is the center of origin for maize. Mexico alone has 59 unique maize landraces recorded and thousands of regionally adapted maize varieties. Maize diversity in Mexico continues to be maintained and managed by smallholder farmers who participate in traditional seed sharing networks. Maize landraces in Mexico are conserved in place, or in-situ, by farmers who continue to grow them in their fields. Commercial maize seed is planted on less than one-fourth of Mexico's 8 million hectares of arable land. The majority of farmers in Mexico use, save, and exchange the seed of traditional maize landraces along with "creolized" (hybridized or cross-pollinated) commercial cultivars, which are typically planted in small (<5 ha) rain-fed fields.