Hurricane Odile was a powerful and destructive Pacific hurricane that is tied for the most intense landfalling tropical cyclone in the Baja California Peninsula during the satellite era. Odile inflicted widespread damage, particularly in the Mexico state of Baja California Sur, in addition to causing lesser impacts on the Mexican mainland and Southwestern United States. The precursor to Odile developed into a tropical depression south of Mexico on September 10 and quickly reached tropical storm strength. After meandering for several days, Odile began to track northwestward, intensifying to hurricane status before rapidly reaching its Category 4 hurricane peak intensity on September 14. The cyclone weakened to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall near Cabo San Lucas with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). Odile gradually weakened as it tracked across the length of the Baja California Peninsula, briefly crossing into the Gulf of California before degenerating into a remnant system on September 17. These remnants tracked northeastward across the Southwestern United States before they were no longer identifiable on September 19.
Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast that Odile would track westward and avoid land as it would curve out to sea. Accordingly, the local governments of southwestern Mexico initially posted minor weather alerts. Precautionary measures on the Baja California Peninsula began in earnest after Odile unexpectedly took a direct course towards the peninsula. Several municipalities declared a state of emergency, opening 164 shelters with a total capacity of 30,000 people. Due to the unanticipated threat of Odile, approximately 26,000 foreign tourists were stranded on the peninsula at the time of landfall.
In Odile's developmental stage, its heavy rainfall and storm surge inflicted minor coastal damage across southwestern Mexico and three deaths in Oaxaca and Jalisco. The most significant storm impacts occurred on the Baja California Peninsula. Power outages spurred by Odile's intense winds and rain cut electricity to 92% of the population of Baja California Sur. Severe flooding also occurred, causing rivers to swell and the mass evacuation of people out of hazardous low-lying areas. The remnants of Odile brought rains and unseasonably powerful thunderstorms to the southwestern United States. In all, Odile led to the deaths of 18 people throughout its nine-day existence, and caused a damage amounted to Mex$24.2 billion (US$1.82 billion).
Meteorological history
Hurricane Odile originated from a tropical wave that exited the African Coast on August 28. Shower activity along the wave axis remained poorly organized until it crossed Central America on September 3. On the next day, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated the possibility for this wave to develop into a low-pressure area south of Mexico and later a tropical cyclone. By September 7, a large area of thunderstorms developed in association with the wave; the broad system slowly progressed westward and gradually organized over the next few days. At 00:00 UTC on September 9, a surface low developed roughly south-southeast of Acapulco. This low became better defined over the next 24 hours as it tracked northwestward; the NHC determined that the disturbance had become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on September 10. A continued increase in thunderstorms and organization prompted the NHC to upgrade the system to tropical storm status six hours after formation, designating the system with the name Odile.
Further intensification was slowed because of strong wind shear, which caused the storm's center of circulation to be displaced from the bulk of convection. Due to the lack of atmospheric steering currents at the time, Odile assumed a slow, meandering course towards the west. Continued wind shear caused the tropical storm to become disorganized on September 11 before abating on September 12, allowing for thunderstorms to rebuild over Odile's circulation center. The relaxed wind shear enabled the growth of intense rainbands encircling the tropical cyclone as well as improved outflow aloft. The following day, Odile quickly attained a large central dense overcast; in accordance with Dvorak-derived satellite intensity estimates, the NHC upgraded the storm to hurricane intensity.
Upon being classified as a hurricane on September 13, Odile began to accelerate towards the north-northwest in the direction of the Baja California Peninsula under the influence of both a strengthening mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper-level low to the northwest. Following the formation of an eye, Odile began a phase of rapid intensification. Odile attained Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale at 00:00 UTC on September 14. Six hours later, the cyclone had reached Category 4 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 918 mbar (hPa; 27.11 inHg), a pressure typical for a Category 5 hurricane. At the time, this pressure reading was tied for the sixth-lowest on record for an east Pacific hurricane. Even though additional deepening was forecast, strengthening leveled off thereafter as an eyewall replacement cycle, common in intense hurricanes, began to run its course. Despite the leveling off in intensity, a United States Air Force aircraft reconnaissance flight observed a barometric pressure of 922 mbar (hPa; 27.23 inHg); this measurement was the lowest pressure reading officially measured throughout Odile's existence. Nonetheless, the eroding of the hurricane's inner core due to the eyewall replacement cycle resulted in gradual weakening after peak intensity. Still maintaining its north-northwesterly course with little deviation, Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas at 04:45 UTC on September 15 with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a central pressure of 941 mbar (hPa; 27.79 inHg). The wind estimates tie Odile with Hurricane Olivia in 1967 as the strongest tropical cyclone to move ashore Baja California Sur in the satellite era.
Despite the presence of land, only gradual weakening occurred initially after Odile made landfall. However, a combination of increasingly southwesterly wind shear and the Baja California Peninsula's mountainous terrain began to take its toll on the hurricane, weakening it to a tropical storm by September 16. Although the storm's convection was thinning out, Odile retained a well-organized satellite appearance and occasional bursts of thunderstorm activity. On September 17, a nearby mid-level ridge steered the system slowly northeastward, moving Odile into the Gulf of California as a moderate tropical storm. Despite the very warm waters, the emergence of wind shear and land interaction offset otherwise favorable conditions. Odile continued to weaken as its convection sped northeastwards into Mexico and the southwestern United States. After turning northward and then northeastward in response to a mid-latitude trough, Odile moved inland over the northern part of the Mexican state of Sonora about near Alvaro Obregón as a marginal tropical storm. By doing so, Odile became the first tropical storm to make landfall north of 30°N in Mexico since Hurricane Nora of 1997. At 21:00 UTC on September 17, the NHC determined that the tropical storm had degenerated into a remnant area of low-pressure inland over northwestern mainland Mexico. The remnant circulation of Odile continued to track northeastward, entering extreme southeastern Arizona by 09:00 UTC on September 18. This circulation dissipated by September 19, just east of the border between Arizona and New Mexico, leaving behind a marked mass of thunderstorms which persisted across the region for the next several days.
Preparations
Shortly after designation, a "yellow" alert was issued for western Michoacán, while a "green" alert was issued for the rest of the state, Colima, and Jalisco. Meanwhile, a "blue" alert was in effect for Nayarit, Oaxaca, and Guerrero. On September 11, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional issued a tropical storm watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo. The watch was gradually extended northward as Odile paralleled the coast, and was briefly upgraded into a tropical storm warning on September 14.
At 09:00 UTC September 13, a tropical storm watch was declared from La Paz, Baja California Sur to Santa Fe. At this time, all dynamical models kept this system far offshore, so Odile was only expected to pose a slight threat to the area. However, at 21:00 UTC, as the guidance rapidly shifted left, a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was declared for the southern portion of the peninsula. At 03:00 UTC September 14, a little under 26 hours prior to its first landfall, a hurricane warning was declared. Meanwhile, the Baja California Peninsula was placed under "red" (maximum) alert. The aforementioned warnings and watches were gradually extended north as the storm progressed inland, before finally being cancelled after moving inland mainland Mexico on September 17.
Following the sudden shift in the projected track, a state of emergency was declared on September 14 in La Paz, Los Cabos, Comondú, Loreto and Mulegé. In Cabo San Lucas, 2,100 marine workers were set up to start evacuations. In La Paz, classes were suspended. Throughout the peninsula, 164 shelters were opened capable of harboring 30,000 people, but only 3,500 persons used these shelters. At the time of landfall, hotels in the state were at 46% of capacity, equal to 30,000 tourists, 26,000 of whom were foreigners. The ports of La Paz, Los Cabos, San José del Cabo, and Loreto were closed. Around 800 marine officers were placed on standby. Police with megaphones walked through vulnerable areas in Cabo San Lucas urging people to evacuate.
Much of southern Sonora was placed under a "yellow" alert, while a "green" alert was in effect for the central part of the state. On September 15, the "yellow" alert was upgraded to a "red" alert while classes were canceled in 34 municipalities. After Odile tracked into the Gulf of California, a "red" alert was declared for Hermosillo. A total of 214 people were evacuated to shelters in Sinaloa. A tropical storm warning was issued from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad at 09:00 UTC on September 16, before being dropped 21 hours later.
Impact
Western Mexico Heavy rains brought flooding to Oaxaca that killed two people; a nine-year old was swept away in a river and a company worker was struck by lightning. Due to a combination of high waves and storm surge, 69 buildings in Acapulco sustained damage, including 18 restaurants and a portion of a scenic walkway. Along the beaches of Nayarit and Colima, minor damage was reported. On the beach in Puerto Vallarta, two people were killed due to high waves.
Baja California Peninsula
After making landfall as a major hurricane, Odile deluged much of the Baja California peninsula with at least of rain. A maximum rainfall total of 8.67 in (220 mm) occurred in Santiago in Baja California Sur. Due to the major hurricane's large size, hurricane-force winds occurred over much of the state of Baja California Sur, while tropical storm force winds covered virtually all of the peninsula. The weather station at Cabo San Lucas recorded maximum winds of and gusts of , along with a minimum pressure of 958.9 mbar (pHa, 28.32 inHg). Elsewhere, Bahía de Loreto reported wind gusts of , which was the highest reported wind gust during the passage of Odile. A storm chaser located a little east of Cabo San Lucas reported a minimum pressure of 943.1 mbar (pHa, 27.78 inHg); this was the lowest pressure recorded during the passage of the hurricane. Due to the rains and wind, Odile brought widespread damage to the Baja California Peninsula.