In the run up to the 1982 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 1st Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 1 March 1979, to the day the next election was held, on 28 October 1982.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Electoral polling Nationwide polling

Voting intention estimates The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PNV Lead 1982 general election 28 Oct 1982 80.0 6.8 48.1 4.1 26.4 3.7 0.5 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 2.9 21.7 PSOE 28 Oct 1982 85,300? 6.6 48.0 4.3 26.0 4.0 – 0.4 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 3.1 22.0 Ideal 28 Oct 1982? 75.7 7.2 45.7 3.8 25.5 4.5 0.4 – 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 2.6 20.2 Sofemasa/El País 16–19 Oct 1982 18,255 78.5 6.5 48.6 5.9 24.0 2.5 1.0 – 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 4.0 24.6 Alef/Grupo 16 9–14 Oct 1982 7,000? 9.5 49.2 7.8 18.2 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.7 5.9 31.0 Sofemasa/El País 1–7 Oct 1982 1,163? 5.0 51.0 4.3 19.3 – 0.9 – – – – – 4.6 31.7 CDS 4 Oct 1982?????? – – – – – – – ?? SEE 4 Oct 1982??????? –????? ?? Alef/Grupo 16 25–30 Sep 1982 3,008 78.8 10.6 45.9 5.8 16.3 – 0.7 – – – – – 8.4 29.6 Sofemasa/El País 24–30 Sep 1982 2,460? 4.8 51.5 5.2 14.8 – 0.5 – – – – – 2.3 36.7 AP 27 Sep 1982 6,000???? 27.4? –????? ?? ICSA–Gallup 6–26 Sep 1982?? 10.0 44.0 7.0 20.0 – – – – – – – – – 24.0 UCD 22 Sep 1982 25,000 64???? – – – – – – – ?? Alef/Grupo 16 5–19 Sep 1982 3,000? 10.7 51.3 6.0 13.0 – 0.5 – – – – – – 5.2 38.3 El País 9 Sep 1982?? 13.6 48.3 6.4 18.5 – – – – – – – – – 29.8 Birds 7 Sep 1982???????? –??? –?? ABC 5 Sep 1982?????? – – – – – – – –?? UCD 4 Sep 1982?????? – – – – – – – –?? Sofemasa/El País 24–30 Aug 1982 2,460? 8.5 50.7 5.6 11.8 – 1.4 – – – – – – 2.4 38.9 Metra Seis/Diario 16 6 Aug 1982 1,857 84.8 8.0 42.1 1.9 12.2 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.5 2.2 – 29.9 ICSA–Gallup 5–18 Jul 1982?? 14.0 45.0 7.0 19.0 – – – – – – – – – 26.0 AP 31 May–30 Jun 1982 6,000?????? – –?? –? – –? ICSA–Gallup 5–25 Apr 1982?? 17.0 40.0 7.0 20.0 – – – – – – – – – 20.0 Tiempo 12 Dec 1981?? 21.0 33.1 9.1 11.4 – – – – – – – – – 12.1 ICSA–Gallup 2–22 Nov 1981?? 20.0 40.0 7.0 16.0 – – – – – – – – – 20.0 CEF/PSOE 28 Oct 1981?? 20.0 40.0 7.0 14.0 – – – – – – – – – 20.0 AP 6 Oct 1981?? 17.0–21.0 29.0–32.0 7.0–10.0 9.0–13.0 – – – – – – – – – 11.0–12.0 ICSA–Gallup 8 Jul–17 Sep 1981?? 17.0 44.0 9.0 10.0 – – – – – – – – – 27.0 ICSA–Gallup 3 Jun–16 Jul 1981?? 21.0 45.0 8.0 9.0 – – – – – – – – – 24.0 ICSA–Gallup 6 May–18 Jun 1981?? 23.0 43.0 7.0 8.0 – – – – – – – – – 20.0 ICSA–Gallup 11 Apr–21 May 1981?? 25.0 40.0 8.0 8.0 – – – – – – – – – 15.0 ICSA–Gallup 4 Mar–23 Apr 1981 1,879? 23.6 42.0 7.9 8.9 – – – – – – – – – 18.4 ICSA–Gallup 16 Jan–23 Feb 1981 1,892? 25.9 36.3 9.1 9.1 2.7 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.0 – – 10.4 ICSA–Gallup 16–30 Jan 1981?? 26.2 35.5 9.0 8.5 – – – – – – – – – 9.3 ICSA–Gallup 3 Nov–14 Dec 1980?? 27.4 34.4 8.6 8.7 – – – – – – – – – 7.0 ICSA–Gallup 6 Oct–16 Nov 1980 1,892? 28.3 33.9 8.7 8.0 2.7 1.4 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.3 – – 5.6 ICSA–Gallup 6–19 Oct 1980?? 28.7 34.7 8.6 6.9 – – – – – – – – – 6.0 ICSA–Gallup 4 Aug–14 Sep 1980?? 27.7 33.5 9.4 6.8 – – – – – – – – – 5.8 ICSA–Gallup 9 Jun–6 Jul 1980 1,888? 25.8 33.8 10.4 8.5 – – – – – – – – – 8.0 ICSA–Gallup 9–16 Jun 1980 1,002? 26.3 32.7 10.0 8.4 – – – – – – – – – 6.4 ICSA–Gallup 11 Mar–21 Apr 1980?? 29.6 29.3 9.5 6.6 – – – – – – – – – 0.3 ICSA–Gallup 11–21 Mar 1980 3,047? 30.2 29.8 9.8 5.9 – – – – – – – – – 0.4 ICSA–Gallup 7 Jan–11 Feb 1980?? 30.8 31.9 10.4 6.3 – – – – – – – – – 1.1 ICSA–Gallup 5 Nov–16 Dec 1979?? 32.0 31.2 11.1 6.0 – – – – – – – – – 0.8 ICSA–Gallup 3 Sep–14 Oct 1979?? 31.7 34.3 9.7 5.6 – – – – – – – – – 2.6 ICSA–Gallup 11–18 Jun 1979?? 34.0 30.8 10.5 5.3 – – – – – – – – – 3.2 1979 general election 1 Mar 1979 68.0 34.8 30.4 10.8 6.1 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 – – 4.4

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size PNV Lead 1982 general election 28 Oct 1982 5.3 37.7 3.2 20.7 2.9 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 2.3 20.0 17.0 Sofemasa/El País 16–19 Oct 1982 18,255 4.9 38.8 4.7 18.8 2.1 0.9 – 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 3.0 14.0 5.8 20.0 PSOE 9–14 Oct 1982 1,800 5.5 34.6 2.5 12.4 – – – – – – – 2.3 30.1 6.3 22.2 Alef/Grupo 16 9–14 Oct 1982 7,000 3.9 29.1 5.5 9.5 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.4 2.4 44.8 19.6 Sofemasa/El País 1–7 Oct 1982 1,163 3.5 35.4 3.0 13.4 – 0.6 – – – – – 3.2 24.6 6.0 22.0 PSOE 6 Oct 1982? 5.0 33.0 2.0 11.0 2.0 – – 1.0 – 1.0 – 2.0 22.0 – 22.0 CIS 1 Oct 1982 1,200 4.6 30.7 2.8 11.7 0.8 – – 1.3 – – – 2.5 34.2 9.6 19.0 CIS 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 24,793 4.7 23.8 2.7 9.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.3 44.8 8.7 14.8 Alef/Grupo 16 25–30 Sep 1982 3,008 4.2 27.4 4.1 9.5 – 0.4 – – – – – 3.0 45.2 17.9 Sofemasa/El País 24–30 Sep 1982 2,460 3.2 34.0 3.4 9.8 – 0.3 – – – – – 1.5 26.6 7.4 24.2 Alef/Grupo 16 5–19 Sep 1982 3,000 6.8 33.1 5.3 7.2 – 0.3 – – – – – – 1.7 39.4 25.9 CIS 3–5 Sep 1982 2,400 7.0 27.0 3.0 11.0 – – – – – – – – 2.0 35.0 9.0 16.0 CIS 1 Sep 1982 1,198 6.7 27.9 2.2 11.6 1.3 – – 1.0 – – – – 2.8 32.9 9.8 16.3 Sofemasa/El País 24–30 Aug 1982 2,460 5.6 33.5 3.7 7.8 – 0.9 – – – – – – 1.6 27.9 6.0 25.7 Metra Seis/Diario 16 7 Aug 1982? 6.7 39.2 1.7 11.2 – 1.5 – – – – – 1.9 – 33.3 28.0 Metra Seis/Diario 16 6 Aug 1982 1,857 7.0 37.0 1.7 10.7 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 0.4 1.9 – 20.9 15.2 26.3 CIS 8–12 Jul 1982 3,185 12.0 29.1 3.5 9.8 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.4 – 0.3 – – 28.4 11.6 17.1 CIS 1 Jun 1982 1,188 9.8 30.5 2.5 9.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 – 0.3 – – 30.8 11.9 20.7 CIS 7 May 1982 1,200 12.8 27.7 3.2 7.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 – – 1.0 – – 28.1 14.3 14.9 Emopública/Cambio 16 24 Apr 1982? 16.0 34.0 4.0 8.0 – – – – – – – – – – – 18.0 CIS 23–27 Mar 1982 1,200 12.6 24.9 3.2 8.1 1.3 1.0 – 1.3 – – – – – 33.1 11.8 12.3 CIS 3 Mar 1982? 13.0 21.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 – – – – – – 38.0 13.0 8.0 CIS 23–27 Feb 1982 1,200 13.0 30.1 2.5 8.2 1.6 – 0.7 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 – – 27.3 12.2 17.1 CIS 1 Jan 1982 1,179 11.8 28.4 3.5 8.2 1.3 – – 0.8 1.0 – – – – 30.6 11.7 16.6 CIS 28–30 Nov 1981 1,200 11.0 25.0 3.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 – 0.0 – – 35.0 12.0 14.0 CIS 26 Oct–1 Nov 1981 1,201 11.1 28.9 3.0 7.3 1.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 – 1.0 – – 32.9 10.8 17.8 CIS 9–11 Sep 1981 1,193 11.6 26.2 2.9 3.3 1.9 – – 1.9 1.0 – 1.0 – – 36.2 11.9 14.6 CIS 1 Jul 1981 1,200 13.6 26.5 3.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.7 – 0.3 – – 34.9 12.6 12.9 CIS 1 Jun 1981 2,394 13.5 25.4 3.5 4.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 – – 25.1 21.3 11.9 CIS 10 May 1981 1,163 15.0 24.5 3.7 4.0 1.7 – 1.0 2.2 1.0 – – – – 35.5 10.0 9.5 CIS 28 Apr–2 May 1981 2,394 14.9 24.0 3.5 3.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 1.3 0.5 – 0.3 – – 35.2 12.8 9.1 CIS 1 Apr 1981 1,197 14.8 22.9 3.3 4.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 – 0.0 – – 37.1 11.4 8.1 CIS 1 Mar 1981 1,196 13.5 27.2 3.2 5.6 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.8 0.5 – 0.4 – – 34.6 9.5 13.7 CIS 30 Jan 1981 1,177 12.0 22.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 – 1.0 1.0 – – – – – 44.0 8.0 10.0 CIS 1 Jan 1981 1,191 13.3 19.6 4.4 4.8 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 – 0.0 – – 37.8 15.1 6.3 CIS 1 Dec 1980 1,202 13.2 22.2 3.5 4.9 1.4 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.5 – 0.4 – – 37.0 12.3 9.0 INE 12 Nov 1980 3,457 12.0 18.0 5.0 3.0 – – – – – – – – – 42.5 8.8 6.0 CIS 1 Nov 1980 1,200 13.0 21.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 – 1.0 1.0 1.0 – – – – 37.0 12.0 8.0 CIS 1 Oct 1980? 15.7 16.8 3.3 4.9 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.5 – – – – – 39.3 12.7 1.1 CIS 1 Sep 1980 1,184 16.5 22.9 4.7 5.5 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 – – – – – 32.1 10.6 6.4 CIS 1 Jul 1980 3,457 13.4 20.2 4.8 4.0 1.2 0.4 – 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 – – 41.2 8.5 6.8 CIS 1 Jun 1980 1,191 15.1 25.3 3.2 5.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 – 1.0 1.0 – – 31.9 11.8 10.2 CIS 1 Apr 1980 1,168 16.4 18.8 3.8 4.5 1.9 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.0 – 1.0 – – 34.3 12.4 2.4 CIS 1 Mar 1980 1,185 18.3 19.7 4.3 3.5 2.1 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.8 – 0.6 – – 33.7 11.1 1.4 CIS 1 Dec 1979 1,147 20.0 19.0 5.0 3.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3 – 0.5 – – 35.0 11.0 1.0 1979 general election 1 Mar 1979 23.4 20.4 7.2 4.1 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 – – 32.0 3.0

Victory preference The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 1 Oct 1982 1,200 6.0 38.0 3.0 15.0 3.0 2.0 33.0 23.0 CIS 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 24,793 6.3 35.2 2.6 13.0 2.4 4.2 36.3 22.2 CIS 3–5 Sep 1982 2,400 9.0 36.0 3.0 14.0 4.0 3.0 31.0 22.0 CIS 1 Sep 1982 1,198 7.0 35.0 3.0 14.0 4.0 3.0 34.0 21.0 CIS 8–12 Jul 1982 3,185 11.8 34.5 3.3 11.0 – 3.7 35.6 22.7 CIS 1 Jun 1982 1,188 9.6 37.6 1.6 12.1 – 2.9 36.1 25.5

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 1 Oct 1982 1,200 2.0 57.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 36.0 52.0 CIS 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 24,793 4.4 51.8 0.3 5.5 0.9 0.4 36.7 46.3 CIS 3–5 Sep 1982 2,400 6.0 53.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 35.0 47.0 CIS 1 Sep 1982 1,198 3.0 53.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 37.0 48.0 CIS 8–12 Jul 1982 3,185 10.0 49.5 0.3 4.4 – 0.1 35.6 39.5 CIS 1 Jun 1982 1,188 7.4 46.5 0.1 3.4 – 0.3 42.4 39.1 CIS 26 Oct–1 Nov 1981 1,201 14.0 40.0 – 5.0 – – 41.0 26.0

Hypothetical scenarios UCD–AP alliance Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead UCD 4 Sep 1982??????? Tiempo 12 Dec 1981?? 32.6 31.4 3.9 – 1.2

Leadership polling Preferred prime minister The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become prime minister.

All candidates Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Alef/Grupo 16 9–14 Oct 1982 7,000 – 6.1 49.3 – 5.7 19.2 8.7 2.1 8.9 30.1 CIS 1 Oct 1982 1,200 1.0 3.0 37.0 – 2.0 15.0 6.0 – 36.0 22.0 CIS 29 Sep–1 Oct 1982 24,793 – 4.3 37.2 – 2.7 17.1 6.5 – 32.2 20.1 Alef/Grupo 16 25–30 Sep 1982 3,008 – 6.4 46.8 – 4.3 17.9 11.9 3.2 9.6 28.9 CIS 1 Sep 1982 1,198 2.0 3.0 34.0 – 3.0 15.0 7.0 – 36.0 19.0 Emopública/Cambio 16 24 Apr 1982? 11.3 – 39.8 3.9 – 13.7 5.6 25.7 26.1

Suárez vs. González Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead ICSA–Gallup/Cambio 16 30 Jan 1981? 26.0 43.0 31.0 17.0 ICSA–Gallup 9–16 Jun 1980 1,002 28.0 46.0 26.0 18.0 VSA 18–22 Mar 1980 3,046 14.6 21.3 – – 6.7 ICSA–Gallup Sep 1979? 31.0 41.0 28.0 10.0

Suárez vs. Carrillo Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead ICSA–Gallup 9–16 Jun 1980 1,002 46.0 25.0 29.0 21.0

Approval ratings Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo