A regional election was held in the Community of Madrid on 26 October 2003 to elect the 7th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 111 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was a snap election, held as a result of the parliamentary deadlock resulting from the Tamayazo scandal after the May 2003 election.

The People's Party (PP) recovered the absolute majority it had lost in the previous election. This came at the expense of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which suffered from the scandal of the rebel MPs who refused to support a PSOE–IU government led by Rafael Simancas. United Left (IU) saw a slight increase in support but failed to translate its gains into new seats. As a result of the election, Esperanza Aguirre was elected as President of the Community of Madrid, becoming the first woman to be appointed to the office.

Overview Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).; . The previous election was held on 25 May 2003, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 27 May 2007.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election had been called and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which was to be held on the first Sunday 54 days after the call.; . Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances did not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.; .

The Tamayazo scandal had resulted in the impossibility of any successful investiture in the Assembly elected at the May 2003 election, with a snap election being widely regarded by political parties as the only way out of the deadlock. However, a discussion sparked on the date in which it was legally feasible to hold such an election: the PP aimed for the parties to agree on the dissolution of parliament as soon as it was certified that no candidate was willing to attempt investiture, whereas the PSOE sought to adhere to the legal two-month period as it attempted to have the two defectors to resign their seats and be replaced by their successive candidates in the electoral list. With the deadline to nominate a candidate for investiture being set at 27 June, a vote was being required for no later than 3 July, thus setting the deadline for parliamentary dissolution on 3 September. After Simancas's failed investiture on 28–30 June and the growing expectation of a snap election in October, parties agreed on law amendments to ensure that early elections called under these circumstances were held on the nearest Sunday after all legal deadlines were met, which for this occasion was 26 October.

The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 30 August 2003 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 26 October and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 12 November..

Electoral system Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ).

The Assembly of Madrid had one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.; . As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 111 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2002)..

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

+ Parliamentary composition in March 2011 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 55 55 PSOE–Progressives Parliamentary Group PSOE 45 45 United Left Parliamentary Group IUCM 9 9 Mixed Parliamentary Group INDEP 2 2

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ).

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Esperanza Aguirre ConservatismChristian democracy 46.7% PSOE Rafael Simancas Social democracy 40.0% IUCM Fausto Fernández SocialismCommunism 7.7%

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 56 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead October 2003 regional election 26 Oct 2003 62.6 48.5 39.0 8.5 9.5 Sigma Dos/Antena 3 26 Oct 2003?? 47.7 39.4 8.2 8.3 Sigma Dos/Antena 3 26 Oct 2003?? 48.2 38.0 9.0 10.2 Gallup/RTVE 26 Oct 2003?? 49.0 37.9 8.7 11.1 Celeste-Tel/La Razón 19 Oct 2003?????? Sigma Dos/El Mundo 19 Oct 2003?? 49.4??? Opina 16 Oct 2003 1,500? 50.5 39.0 7.0 11.5 Opina/El País 12–13 Oct 2003?? 49.5 39.0 7.1 10.5 PP 9–10 Oct 2003?????? Opina/Cadena SER 4–6 Oct 2003 1,500? 49.5 38.0 8.0 11.5 CIS 27 Sep–5 Oct 2003 1,194 63.2 50.4 37.4 10.1 13.0 Infortécnica 1–30 Sep 2003 2,006 59.7 51.4 38.5 10.1 12.9 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 29 Sep 2003?? 48.2 38.8 8.5 9.4 PP 28 Sep 2003?????? TNS Demoscopia/ABC 2–3 Sep 2003 806? 48.4 39.6 9.4 8.8 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 25 Jun 2003 800? 48.4 39.7 7.9 8.7 TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5 13–14 Jun 2003 600? 46.4 40.6 7.2 5.8 May 2003 regional election 25 May 2003 69.3 46.7 40.0 7.7 6.7

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead October 2003 regional election 26 Oct 2003 30.9 24.8 5.4 36.0 6.1 CIS 27 Sep–5 Oct 2003 1,194 30.7 27.1 7.6 19.5 11.5 3.6 Infortécnica 1–30 Sep 2003 2,006 30.7 23.0 6.0 40.3 7.7 TNS Demoscopia/ABC 2–3 Sep 2003 806 29.7 27.7 6.8 – – 2.0 TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5 13–14 Jun 2003 600 32.0 28.0 5.0 – – 4.0 May 2003 regional election 25 May 2003 31.9 27.4 5.2 29.0 4.5

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina 16 Oct 2003 1,500 40.9 29.9 6.4 2.5 20.3 11.0 Opina/Cadena SER 4–6 Oct 2003 1,500 41.3 29.8 6.5 1.3 21.1 11.5 CIS 27 Sep–5 Oct 2003 1,194 34.7 33.8 8.0 3.8 19.8 0.9 TNS Demoscopia/ABC 2–3 Sep 2003 806 31.0 31.0 – 29.0 – Tie

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina 16 Oct 2003 1,500 70.6 9.1 0.1 – 20.2 61.5 Opina/Cadena SER 4–6 Oct 2003 1,500 64.0 14.5 0.5 0.3 20.6 49.5 CIS 27 Sep–5 Oct 2003 1,194 66.2 9.9 0.0 0.4 23.5 56.3 Infortécnica 1–30 Sep 2003 2,006 56.6 11.5 0.5 0.2 31.2 45.1 TNS Demoscopia/ABC 2–3 Sep 2003 806 75.0 – – – –? TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5 13–14 Jun 2003 600 66.0 – – – –?

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina 16 Oct 2003 1,500 40.9 29.6 6.3 1.6 21.7 11.3 Opina/Cadena SER 4–6 Oct 2003 1,500 40.6 28.5 6.0 1.7 23.2 12.1 CIS 27 Sep–5 Oct 2003 1,194 33.1 30.3 5.1 8.6 22.9 2.8

Predicted President The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina 16 Oct 2003 1,500 69.3 11.5 0.2 0.3 18.7 57.8 Opina/El País 12–13 Oct 2003? 69.3 11.5 – 19.2 57.8 Opina/Cadena SER 4–6 Oct 2003 1,500 58.1 17.1 0.7 0.3 23.8 41.0

Results Overall