A regional election was held in Castile and León on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th of the autonomous community. All 84 seats in the were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

The ruling People's Party (PP) sustained a sharp decline in its support, with a decrease of almost fourteen percentage points in the vote share and falling short of an overall majority for the first time since 1987. Concurrently, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) secured its worst historical result with only 25.9% and 25 seats, whereas the Leonese People's Union (UPL) had its worst showing since 1991. Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We Can") and Citizens (C's) made substantial inroads, both securing over 10% of the share.

The election result forced the PP candidate and incumbent regional president Juan Vicente Herrera to secure the support of C's in order to be re-elected for a fifth term in office, which would also end up being his last.

Overview Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Castile and León was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the of Castile and León expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.; ( by ). The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 28 April 2015, setting the latest possible date for election day on 21 June 2015.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the of Castile and León at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called..

The of Castile and León was officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCYL, setting election day for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 16 June..

Electoral system Voting for the was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ). Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting ()..

The of Castile and León had three seats per each multi-member constituency—corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora—plus one additional seat per 45,000 inhabitants or fraction above 22,500. All were elected using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.; . The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each constituency was entitled the following seats:.

Seats Constituencies 15 Valladolid 14 León 11 Burgos, Salamanca 7 Ávila, Palencia, Segovia, Zamora 5 Soria

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

+ Parliamentary composition in March 2015 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 53 53 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 29 29 Mixed Parliamentary Group IUCyL 1 2 UPL 1

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Juan Vicente Herrera ConservatismChristian democracy 51.6% PSOE Luis Tudanca Social democracy 29.7% IU–Equo José Sarrión SocialismCommunism 4.9% UPL Luis Mariano Santos LeonesismRegionalismAutonomism 1.9% C's Luis Fuentes Liberalism 0.3% Podemos Pablo Fernández Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism colspan="2"

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout UPL Lead 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 64.9 37.7 25.9 4.1 1.4 1.4 10.3 12.1 0.7 11.8 GAD3/Antena 3 11–22 May 2015????? –??? –? NC Report/La Razón 17 May 2015 1,800? 42.2 24.7 4.8 1.1 2.0 12.6 10.5 – 17.5 GAD3/ABC 6–11 May 2015 550? 39.2 24.5 4.2 0.9 0.6 13.5 11.8 – 14.7 Madison MK/El Norte de Castilla 29 Apr–6 May 2015 1,906? 38.9 22.5 5.7 – 1.7 13.2 10.4 – 16.4 Celeste-Tel/Edigrup 22–30 Apr 2015 2,700 64.7 44.3 25.0 4.6 2.2 2.2 12.8 7.3 1.3 19.3 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 2,989? 40.9 22.9 3.8 2.0 1.8 11.1 10.3 – 18.0 Sigma Dos/Ical 12–24 Mar 2015 2,200? 39.6 22.2 5.6 – 1.3 13.3 13.8 – 17.4 NC Report/La Razón 4–20 Mar 2015 1,800? 39.3 23.8 4.3 1.4 1.7 14.1 12.7 – 15.5 Pnyx/RTVCyL 29 Dec–3 Jan 2015 2,000 71 37.6 24.1 3.9 6.1 1.5 5.6 11.7 2.3 13.5 Llorente & Cuenca 31 Oct 2014??????? –? –? 2014 EP election 25 May 2014 45.9 37.5 23.4 8.3 8.3 – 2.7 8.1 2.5 14.1 NC Report/La Razón 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013??????? – – –? NC Report/La Razón 15 Apr–10 May 2013 400? 44.9 28.1??? – – – 16.8 2011 general election 20 Nov 2011 71.3 55.4 29.2 5.6 6.1 – – – – 26.2 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 67.5 51.6 29.7 4.9 3.3 1.9 0.3 – – 21.9

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size UPL Lead 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 25.5 17.5 2.8 1.0 1.0 6.9 8.2 31.0 8.0 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 2,989 20.3 12.5 2.6 0.7 0.4 7.3 7.7 34.6 10.2 7.8 2014 EP election 25 May 2014 17.8 11.1 3.9 4.0 – 1.3 3.9 51.3 6.7 2011 general election 20 Nov 2011 41.0 21.6 4.2 4.5 – – – 24.9 19.4 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 36.0 20.6 3.4 2.3 1.3 – – 28.9 15.4

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size UPL Other/None Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 2,989 24.5 17.3 3.1 1.0 0.3 8.5 9.1 8.3 27.9 7.2

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 2,989 68.8 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.9 22.3 62.5

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Castile and León.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 2,989 25.7 9.7 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.8 56.3 16.0

Results Overall + ← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castile and León election results → Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats Votes % ±pp Total +/− People's Party (PP) 514,301 37.73 −13.82 42 −11 Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 353,575 25.94 −3.74 25 −4 We Can (Podemos) 165,475 12.14 New 10 +10 Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 139,954 10.27 +10.01 5 +5 United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León (IU–Equo) 56,516 4.15 −0.72 1 ±0 Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 19,597 1.44 −1.84 0 ±0 Leonese People's Union (UPL) 19,176 1.41 −0.45 1 ±0 Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre (CI–CCD)2 12,748 0.94 +0.19 0 ±0 Vox (Vox) 9,333 0.68 New 0 ±0 Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 7,263 0.53 +0.16 0 ±0 Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)3 5,032 0.37 +0.20 0 ±0 Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact (PCAS–TC–Pacto) 4,504 0.33 −0.61 0 ±0 Let's Win the Fracking Castile and León (Ganemos al Fracking) 2,445 0.18 New 0 ±0 Zamoran Independent Electors (ADEIZA) 2,380 0.17 −0.06 0 ±0 Decide Now–Socialist Alternative (Ahora Decide–AS) 2,285 0.17 New 0 ±0 Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity (PAL–UL) 1,963 0.14 −0.13 0 ±0 Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) 1,779 0.13 +0.02 0 ±0 Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) 1,698 0.12 New 0 ±0 Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 1,408 0.10 +0.07 0 ±0 Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) 1,374 0.10 −0.04 0 ±0 Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 973 0.07 −0.02 0 ±0 Party for Freedom–With Clean Hands (PxL) 934 0.07 New 0 ±0 National Democracy (DN) 896 0.07 −0.08 0 ±0 Spanish Democratic Segovian Party (PSeDE) 874 0.06 New 0 ±0 Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León (DRCyL)4 848 0.06 −0.04 0 ±0 United Free Citizens (CILUS) 742 0.05 New 0 ±0 Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) 732 0.05 ±0.00 0 ±0 Cives (Cives) 628 0.05 New 0 ±0 Blank Seats (EB) 348 0.03 New 0 ±0 Blank ballots 33,274 2.44 −0.84 Total 1,363,055 84 ±0 Valid votes 1,363,055 97.93 −0.16 Invalid votes 28,742 2.07 +0.16 Votes cast / turnout 1,391,797 64.67 −2.83 Abstentions 760,196 35.33 +2.83 Registered voters 2,151,993 Sources

Distribution by constituency