A regional election was held in Castilla–La Mancha on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th of the autonomous community. All 33 seats in the were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview Electoral system The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities. Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of three seats, with the remaining 18 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.

Election date The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Cortes on 24 May 2015.

The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (25 until 13 August 2012 and 27 from 13 August 2012 to 21 July 2014).

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 71.5 37.5 36.1 3.1 1.0 9.7 8.6 1.4 TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA 24 May 2015 20,250? 38.4 35.2 – – 9.9 7.0 3.2 GAD3/Antena 3 11–22 May 2015???? – –??? GAD3/ABC 17 May 2015?? 39.4 27.5 – – 10.6 14.2 11.9 NC Report/La Razón 17 May 2015 900? 40.8 35.6 3.1 0.9 8.9 9.3 5.2 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 8–12 May 2015 1,200? 37.9 32.9 4.3 – 10.7 9.6 5.0 PP 27 Apr–8 May 2015 5,000? 37.5 33.6 4.5 – 10.3 9.8 3.9 Metroscopia/El País 30 Apr–5 May 2015 2,000 77 35.1 26.6 – – 12.6 17.6 8.5 Noxa/PSOE 28 Apr–4 May 2015 2,000? 31.6 32.3 – – 10.0 17.0 0.7 Sigma Dos/La Tribuna 27 Apr–4 May 2015 1,500? 37.6 28.8 6.4 – 11.4 11.1 8.8 lavozdeltajo.com 23 Apr–4 May 2015 7,274? 39.5 40.1 1.2 0.2 10.7 8.5 0.6 GAD3/ABC 23–28 Apr 2015 1,004? 40.1 25.5 3.6 0.8 9.1 16.9 14.6 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,961? 34.9 35.1 3.3 1.4 9.9 12.0 0.2 Noxa/La Calle 11–17 Apr 2015 2,000 75.6 35.1 37.1 3.1 2.9 11.2 8.5 2.0 Noxa/La Calle 7–14 Mar 2015 2,000 73.6 35.4 36.4 2.8 3.6 11.9 7.8 1.0 NC Report/La Razón 2–11 Mar 2015 900? 42.3 33.1 2.8 1.1 10.0 9.2 9.2 PSOE 25 Feb 2015???? – –? –? PP 20 Feb 2015????? –? –? PP 28 Jan 2015???? – –? –? GAD3/ABC 7–21 Jan 2015 2,002? 42.3 32.5 – – 11.6 – 9.8 Asturbarómetro 10 Dec–9 Jan 2015?? 42.9 28.1 2.7 2.8 16.4 2.4 14.8 Llorente & Cuenca 31 Oct 2014???? – –? –? NC Report/La Tribuna 12–23 Oct 2014 3,000 70.7 42.6 35.5 3.2 3.4 12.4 – 7.1 2014 EP election 25 May 2014 46.4 37.7 28.8 8.7 7.2 6.4 2.2 8.9 GAD3/ABC 26 Mar–10 Apr 2014 1,500? 44.8 38.7 8.2 – – – 6.1 NC Report/La Tribuna 18–28 Nov 2013 3,000 69.0 41.3 38.9 7.5 5.6 – – 2.4 NC Report/La Razón 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013?????? – –? NC Report/La Tribuna 2–15 May 2013 3,000? 41.9 39.7 7.2 5.5 – – 2.2 NC Report/La Razón 15 Apr–10 May 2013 350? 41.8 40.2? – – – 1.6 GAD3/ABC 1–22 Apr 2013 1,500? 43.5 40.1 8.9 3.3 – – 3.4 2011 general election 20 Nov 2011 75.8 55.8 30.3 5.8 5.0 – – 25.5 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 76.0 48.1 43.4 3.8 1.8 – – 4.7

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 26.7 25.7 2.2 0.7 6.9 6.1 27.2 1.0 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,961 18.5 14.9 2.8 0.5 8.0 8.3 34.7 7.8 3.6 2014 EP election 25 May 2014 17.3 13.2 4.0 3.3 2.9 1.0 52.9 4.1 2011 general election 20 Nov 2011 42.2 22.9 4.4 3.8 – – 23.3 19.3 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 36.5 32.9 2.9 1.3 – – 23.1 3.6

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,961 22.7 20.3 2.9 0.8 8.8 9.1 8.3 27.1 2.4

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,961 42.4 18.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 36.1 24.4

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,961 25.7 17.1 1.4 2.5 2.0 3.6 47.8 8.6 Noxa/La Calle 7–14 Mar 2015 2,000 39.1 46.7 – – – – 14.2 7.6

Results Overall + ← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results → Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats Votes % ±pp Total +/− People's Party (PP) 413,349 37.49 −10.62 16 −9 Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 398,104 36.11 −7.29 15 −9 We Can (Podemos) 107,463 9.75 New 2 +2 Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 95,230 8.64 New 0 ±0 Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (Ganemos–LV–IU)1 34,230 3.10 −0.67 0 ±0 Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 10,866 0.99 −0.76 0 ±0 Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 8,943 0.81 +0.46 0 ±0 Vox (Vox) 5,302 0.48 New 0 ±0 Union of Independent Citizens (UCIN)2 5,061 0.46 +0.34 0 ±0 The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) 1,918 0.17 −0.03 0 ±0 Castilian Party–Castilian Unity (PCAS–UdCa)3 1,532 0.14 −0.15 0 ±0 Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 987 0.09 New 0 ±0 Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM) 287 0.03 New 0 ±0 Blank ballots 19,256 1.75 +0.08 Total 1,102,528 33 −16 Valid votes 1,102,528 97.82 −0.87 Invalid votes 24,619 2.18 +0.87 Votes cast / turnout 1,127,147 71.50 −4.46 Abstentions 449,204 28.50 +4.46 Registered voters 1,576,351 Sources

Distribution by constituency Constituency PP PSOE Podemos % S % S % S Albacete 36.7 3 33.8 3 11.2 − Ciudad Real 37.1 4 38.8 4 8.4 − Cuenca 41.5 3 37.6 2 8.0 − Guadalajara 33.7 2 30.0 2 14.6 1 Toledo 38.3 4 36.9 4 8.8 1 Total 37.5 16 36.1 15 9.7 2 Sources

Aftermath InvestitureEmiliano García-Page (PSOE) Ballot → 1 July 2015 Required majority → 17 out of 33 Abstentions Absentees Sources

Notes

References Opinion poll sources

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