The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.
The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.
Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history. This election was the first time since 1990 that a woman was elected Governor of Oregon. As of , it was also the most recent gubernatorial special election in the U.S., excluding recall elections.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist Kate Brown, incumbent governorTheriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor" , The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015. Chet Chance, professional driver Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee Steve Johnson, health worker Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer
Declined Brad Avakian, State Labor Commissioner (running for secretary of state) Tina Kotek, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Ted Wheeler, state treasurer (running for Mayor of Portland)
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared Allen Alley, former chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, nominee for Oregon State Treasurer in 2008 and candidate for governor in 2010 Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 Bob Forthan, perennial candidate Bob Niemeyer, engineering company owner and candidate for OR-01 in 2014 Bud Pierce, physician
Declined Shane Bemis, Mayor of Gresham Knute Buehler, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012 Sid Leiken, Lane County Commissioner, former mayor of Springfield and candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district in 2010 (running for secretary of state) Julie Parrish, state representative Dennis Richardson, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014 (running for secretary of state) Sherrie Sprenger, state representative Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AllenAlley BruceCuff BobForthan BobNeimeyer BudPierce UndecidedDHM ResearchDHM Research May 6–9, 2016 324 ± 5.7% 22% 3% 1% 5% 25% 44%
Results
Independent Party primary The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.
Candidates
Declared Patrick Barney Cliff Thomason, realtor
Declined Betsy Johnson, Democratic state senator
Results
Minor parties Aaron Donald Auer (Constitution Party), candidate for governor in 2014 James Foster (Libertarian Party), candidate for OR-01 in 2014
General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 13, 2016 - C-SPAN Complete video of debate, October 20, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report August 12, 2016 Daily Kos November 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2016 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 Real Clear Politics November 1, 2016 Governing October 27, 2016
Polling
Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated KateBrown (D) BudPierce (R) Other/UndecidedMarginReal Clear PoliticsOctober 4–29, 2016October 29, 201645.5%35.5%19.0%Brown +10.0% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KateBrown (D) BudPierce (R) CliffThomason (I) JamesFoster (L) Other UndecidedSurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,595 ± 4.6% 56% 41% — — — 3%SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,483 ± 4.6% 56% 40% — — — 4%SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 1,150 ± 4.6% 56% 40% — — — 4%SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 934 ± 4.6% 55% 41% — — — 4%SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 809 ± 4.6% 54% 41% — — — 5%SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 743 ± 4.6% 54% 42% — — — 4%FOX 12 Oregon/DHM ResearchFOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research October 24–29, 2016 504 ± 4.4% 42% 33% 4% 3% 4% 15%Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) October 20–21, 2016 928 ± 3.2% 45% 43% — — 6% 6%KGW Oregonian/Riley ResearchKGW Oregonian/Riley Research October 4–14, 2016 608 ± 4.0% 48% 34% — — — 13%Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM ResearchOregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research October 6–13, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 33% 4% 3% — 12%KATU-TV/SurveyUSA October 10–12, 2016 654 ± 3.9% 46% 42% — — 4% 8%iCitizeniCitizen September 2–7, 2016 610 ± 4.0% 44% 27% 3% 3% — 23%KATU-TV/DHM Research September 1–6, 2016 517 ± 4.3% 43% 35% — — — 18%Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) July 9–13, 2016 701 ± 3.7% 43% 42% 5% 2% — 7%iCitizeniCitizen June 23–27, 2016 555 ± 4.0% 42% 35% — — — 23%Action SolutionsAction Solutions → June 1–2, 2016 600 ± 5.7% 39% 37% — — — 24%Moore InformationMoore Information April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 45% 27% — — — 28%
→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.
with Allen Alley Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KateBrown (D) AllenAlley (R) Other UndecidedMoore Information April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 47% 32% — 21%
with Shane Bemis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KateBrown (D) ShaneBemis (R) Other UndecidedMoore Information April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 45% 26% — 28%
with Dennis Richardson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KateBrown (D) DennisRichardson (R) Other UndecidedMoore Information April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 48% 41% — 12%
Results
By county County Kate BrownDemocratic Bud PierceRepublican Various candidatesOther parties % # % # % #Baker23.55%2,04769.83%6,0696.62%575Benton59.28%28,04334.97%16,5435.76%2,722Clackamas46.36%96,73548.35%100,8825.26%11,030Clatsop50.35%9,66743.88%8,4255.75%1,106Columbia42.4%11,02049.72%12,9257.89%2,048Coos37.44%11,50054.98%16,8897.58%2,330Crook24.83%2,99068.37%8,2326.8%818Curry40.38%4,94752.32%6,4107.3%894Deschutes44.07%42,29849.83%47,8246.1%5,858Douglas30.16%15,87862.02%32,6477.83%4,118Gilliam26.97%27767.58%6945.45%56Grant21.17%90472.42%3,0936.42%274Harney22.46%88670.23%2,7707.3%288Hood River60.31%6,44134.39%3,6725.3%566Jackson44.17%46,80349.31%52,2596.53%6,911Jefferson34.1%3,16959.01%5,4846.89%641Josephine34.89%24,07855.48%24,0789.63%4,179Klamath28.09%8,42064.1%19,2117.81%2,340Lake19.74%76272.38%2,7947.87%304Lane55.3%103,22638.69%72,2086.01%11,217Lincoln53.13%13,21240.55%10,0846.32%1,572Linn33.26%19,15659.96%34,5396.79%3,904Malheur23.85%2,43668.21%6,9667.94%811Marion41.32%55,74853.93%72,7524.75%6,408Morrow27.89%1,15264.94%2,6827.17%296Multnomah72.91%279,21021.97%84,1395.12%19,593Polk40.14%15,96054.94%21,8474.92%1,957Sherman23.56%23472.61%7213.83%38Tillamook45.44%6,15248.74%6,5995.79%789Umatilla31.82%8,54160.61%16,2697.56%2,031Union26.74%3,41067.12%8,5616.14%783Wallowa29.07%1,25365.81%2,8375.13%221Wasco43.24%5,05750.23%5,8746.53%763Washington54.99%143,27839.26%102,2825.75%14,987Wheeler23.66%19470.12%5756.21%51Yamhill39.68%18,88254.16%25,7736.16%2,931
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Clatsop (largest city: Astoria)
By congressional district Brown won three of five congressional districts. Pierce won the other two, including one that elected a Democrat.
District KateBrown BudPierce ElectedRepresentative 54% 41%Suzanne Bonamici 38% 55%Greg Walden 68% 26%Earl Blumenauer 47% 46%Peter DeFazio 45% 49%Kurt Schrader
Notes
References
External links Nominees Aaron Donald Auer (C) for Governor Kate Brown (D) for Governor James Foster (L) for Governor Bud Pierce (R) for Governor Cliff Thomason (I) for Governor
Primary candidates Julian Bell (D) for Governor Steve Johnson (D) for Governor Chet Chance (D) for Governor Allen Alley (R) for Governor Bob Niemeyer (R) for Governor Patrick Barney (I) for Governor