The 2016 presidential campaign of Rand Paul, the junior United States senator from Kentucky, was announced on April 7, 2015, at an event at the Galt House in Louisville, Kentucky. First elected to the U.S. Senate in the 2010 election, Paul's candidacy for the Republican nomination for President of the United States in 2016 had been widely speculated since early 2013.

Leading up to his formal announcement, Paul delivered several high-profile speeches, which included filibustering the nomination of CIA Director John Brennan, speeches at Berkeley and Howard University, and meeting with community leaders in Ferguson, Missouri and Detroit, Michigan, with Paul stating that the meetings and speeches help reach his goal of broadening the Republican Party's appeal with non-traditional constituencies.

Paul suspended his campaign on February 3, 2016.

Background

Pre-campaign speculation

Rand Paul first acknowledged a possible 2016 presidential candidacy in January 2013. On February 13, 2013, Paul delivered the Tea Party's response to President Barack Obama's State of the Union address, prompting some pundits to consider him a potential candidate in the upcoming presidential election. On March 6–7, 2013, Paul engaged in a filibuster to delay voting on the nomination of John O. Brennan as the Director of the CIA. Paul questioned the Obama administration's use of drones and the stated legal justification for their potential use within the United States. Paul held the floor for 12 hours and 52 minutes. Following his filibuster, Paul spoke at the 2013 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington D.C., where he won the presidential straw poll with 25% of the votes cast. Paul again spoke at CPAC in National Harbor, Maryland on March 7, 2014. The day after his speech, he won the presidential straw poll for the second year in a row with 31% of the votes cast, nearly triple the percentage of runner-up U.S. Senator Ted Cruz with 11%.

In April 2014, Paul spoke at the GOP Freedom Summit, an event organized by Americans for Prosperity and Citizens United, which was also attended by several other potential presidential candidates. In his speech, he insisted that the GOP has to broaden its appeal in order to grow as a party. To do so, he said it cannot be the party of "fat cats, rich people and Wall Street" and that the conservative movement has never been about rich people or privilege, "we are the middle class", he said. Paul also said that conservatives must present a message of justice and concern for the unemployed and be against government surveillance to attract new people to the movement, including young people, and Hispanic and African Americans.

Voter outreach efforts In an October 2014 speech in Detroit, Paul stated, "The Republican Party brand sucks, and so people don't want to be a Republican, and for 80 years, African-Americans have had nothing to do with Republicans." He stated that reshaping the Republican Party's brand would be crucial to the party's success. Leading up to his decision about running for president, Paul attempted to broaden the appeal of the Republican party. He visited several historically black colleges, including Howard University, Bowie State University, and Simmons College. In addition, he visited Ferguson, Missouri, and also spoke at the Detroit Economic Club. During his remarks, Paul highlighted his efforts to improve the criminal justice system by reforming mandatory minimum sentencing laws, and restoring voting rights of individuals with non-violent felonies, which Paul believes disproportionately affects the African American and Hispanic communities. Paul also introduced his plan to create "economic freedom zones" which would help areas of high unemployment, such as Louisville or Detroit, to reduce federal regulation and taxes to boost economic growth. Paul received praise for his efforts from Lorraine Miller, acting president of the NAACP, and he also sponsored legislation with Democratic U.S. Senators Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand to improve the criminal justice system for young men and women in a "cycle of poverty and incarceration". Paul's outreach to minority communities seemed to be working, as polls showed him receiving up to 29% of the African-American vote in his home state. By contrast, Republican presidential nominee John McCain received 4% of the African-American vote in 2008, and nominee Mitt Romney received 6% in 2012.

Dual candidacy issues

Kentucky law does not allow presidential (or vice-presidential) nominees to run for office in the state, meaning Paul could not concurrently run for president and reelection to the Senate. However, Paul filed to run for re-election to his Senate seat in April 2011. In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up. During the 2014 legislative elections, Paul attempted to shift the power in the House to the Republicans, who were more likely to pass the bill. Paul spent his own campaign money in the elections, helping Republican candidates for the state house. Even if Democratic governor Steve Beshear were to veto the legislation, that veto can be overridden with a simple majority. However, the Democrats retained their 54–46 majority in the state house. Paul in turn gave his support to the idea that the Kentucky Republican Party could decide to hold a caucus in March separately from the regular primary in May, allowing for the party to have more time to pick a new senatorial candidate should Paul clinch the Republican presidential nomination, which the party agreed to do at a meeting in March 2015.

2014 midterm elections In addition to his own political prospects, in the lead up to the 2014 midterm elections, Paul made a point to campaign for several Senate and Congressional candidates, including Joni Ernst and Rod Blum in Iowa, former U.S. Senator Scott Brown in New Hampshire, David Perdue in Georgia, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and Pat Roberts in Kansas. Paul facilitated these endorsements through his political action committee known as Rand PAC, which was able to provide funds for candidates that Paul had endorsed, as well as provide volunteer support, and air television and radio commercials in support of certain candidates. Because of Paul's appeal to younger voters and "grassroots energy", a majority of Republican campaign operatives, according to Politico, selected Paul as their top choice as a campaign surrogate. After the election, Paul launched a social media campaign titled "Hillary's Losers" which was meant to highlight many of the Democratic candidates who lost their bids for the U.S. Senate despite endorsements from former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

Out of the nearly 20 endorsements that Paul offered in the 2014 midterm election, only three candidates were unsuccessful in their campaigns for office. In contrast, more than half of Clinton's endorsements were unsuccessful, but many political analysts regarded the 2014 midterm elections as a wave election year for Republicans.

Campaign structure

Near the end of 2014, Paul made moves towards a presidential run, including hiring staff in several states, setting up offices, and hiring a campaign manager. In January 2015, he gained the support of Texas Republican Party Chairman Steve Munisteri, a move seen as crucial in taking on potential rivals Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz, both with deep ties to Texas. Paul hired a digital strategist who previously worked on the Senate campaign for Ted Cruz, Vincent Harris, and a campaign manager, Chip Englander, who led businessman Bruce Rauner's successful campaign for governor in Illinois. Longtime Paul advisor Doug Stafford will stay on as a senior political advisor to the Paul campaign. Campaign operations also began in many of the early states, with the hiring of Steve Grubbs, a former chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, to run Paul's potential Iowa campaign, Michael Biundo, formerly campaign manager for Rick Santorum's 2012 presidential bid, in New Hampshire, Chris LaCivita, who advised Senator Pat Roberts and Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in his gubernatorial bid, in South Carolina, and John Yob, a campaign operative, based in Michigan. Through his political action committee, known as Reinventing A New Direction (RAND) PAC, Paul toured many states seen as important in gathering both votes and fundraising dollars.

After former governor Mitt Romney announced that he would not seek a third presidential bid, political analyst Mark Halperin made a statement that he thought that Paul was the new frontrunner in the New Hampshire primary if it were to be held then. Polling throughout 2014, both nationally and in statewide contests, had consistently placed Paul among the top tier of candidates potentially seeking the Republican Party's nomination in the 2016 presidential election.

Several political analysts pointed to the established network of supporters that his father, Ron Paul, had garnered through his own attempts at running for President of the United States in the 2008 and 2012 elections. At the same time, other analysts stated that Ron Paul may have been more of a liability, due to his consistent opposition to foreign involvement, which may not have appealed to mainstream Republican voters. A Super PAC was formed by Ron Paul's 2012 campaign manager John Tate, known as America's Liberty PAC, which stated that it is the only Super PAC officially endorsed by Paul. The group also boasted several staff members from Campaign for Liberty, a group founded in 2008 following the Ron Paul's first unsuccessful attempt at receiving the Republican Party's nomination for president. A second SuperPAC was formed by former FreedomWorks president Matt Kibbe and Young Americans for Liberty president Jeff Frazee.

Paul spoke at CPAC 2015 and received a plurality of votes in the straw poll for his third year in a row, with 26%. On March 23, 2015, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz announced his candidacy for President of the United States, prompting some political analysts to compare Cruz's support with Paul's, stating that they are both vying for the anti-establishment wing of the party. Shortly before Cruz's announcement, Paul made it clear to supporters and members of the media that he would be making an announcement on April 7, at the Galt House Hotel in Louisville regarding the 2016 presidential election, and would follow up his announcement with a four-state tour of various early primary states, including Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Pre-primary campaign developments Going into the summer, Paul hosted several town halls, meet and greets, and rallies in early states and other important states for fundraising, and voter contacts. On May 11, Paul returned to New Hampshire and held a town hall meeting in Londonderry, along with several dozen lawmakers who endorsed his campaign, and continued his campaign swing to southeastern Iowa, concluding with a "cattle call" style Lincoln dinner hosted by the Republican Party of Iowa in Des Moines. Paul also spoke outside Independence Hall in Philadelphia, and participated in a discussion at the National Constitution Center before returning to Washington, D.C., in order to tend to business in the United States Senate.

Filibuster in the U.S. Senate