The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016 due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts widely expected a Democratic pickup.
Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term to Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percentage points. This is the last time a senator from Illinois lost re-election.
Background In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.
Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013. In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election, but there was speculation that he might retire, particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff. Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement. Potential replacements included U.S. representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie. In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.
Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.
Turnout
For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast. For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.
Republican primary Candidates Nominee Mark Kirk, incumbent U.S. senator
Eliminated in primary James Marter, businessman
Removed from ballot Elizabeth Pahlke, independent candidate for IL-02 in 2013
Withdrawn Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor
Declined William J. Kelly, television producer, nominee for IL-01 in 1994, candidate for Illinois Comptroller in 2010 and candidate for Mayor of Chicago in 2015 Bobby Schilling, former U.S. representative Joe Walsh, conservative radio talk show host and former U.S. representativeRiopell, Mike (February 16, 2015) - "Joe Walsh Eyes Challenge to U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk". Daily Herald. Retrieved February 17, 2015.Sweet, Lynn (February 17, 2015) - "Former Rep. Joe Walsh 'Looking At' Bid to Oust Sen. Mark Kirk" . Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved February 21, 2015.
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkKirk JamesMarter UndecidedChicago TribuneChicago Tribune March 2–6, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 65% 22% 12%SIU Simon InstituteSIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 306 ± 5.6%53% 14% 33%
Results
Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Tammy Duckworth, U.S. representative
Eliminated in primary Napoleon Harris, state senator and candidate for Illinois's 2nd congressional district in 2013 Andrea Zopp, former president and CEO of the Chicago Urban League, former Chicago Board of Education member
Withdrawn Tio Hardiman, former director of CeaseFire and candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for IL-01, then withdrew to run for Cook County clerk of court) Robert Marshall, radiologist and perennial candidate (running for IL-06)
Declined Daniel Biss, state senator (running for state comptroller) Richard Boykin, Cook County Commissioner Cheri Bustos, U.S. representativeSkiba, Katherine (February 12, 2015) - "4 U.S. House Democrats From Illinois Consider a Challenge to Sen. Mark Kirk". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved February 23, 2015. Jacqueline Y. Collins, state senator Tom Dart, sheriff of Cook County Bill Foster, U.S. representative Mike Frerichs, Illinois Treasurer Daniel Hynes, former Illinois Comptroller, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004 and candidate for governor of Illinois in 2010 Robin Kelly, U.S. representative Lisa Madigan, Illinois Attorney General Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States Mike Quigley, U.S. representative Pat Quinn, former governor of Illinois Kwame Raoul, state senator Jan Schakowsky, U.S. representative Sheila Simon, former lieutenant governor of Illinois and nominee for Illinois Comptroller in 2014
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror TammyDuckworth AndreaZopp NapoleonHarris UndecidedSIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 422 ± 4.7% 52% 6% 4% 37%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 409 ± 4.9% 59% 10% — 31%
Results
Third party candidates On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed, and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.
Constitution Party (C) (write-in) Chad Koppie, farmer and vice president of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees
Libertarian Party (L) Kent McMillen
Green Party (G) Scott Summers, attorney and former member of the McHenry County College Board of Trustees
Independent (I) Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer
General election Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. representative Mark Kirk (R), incumbent U.S. senator Chad Koppie (C) (write-in) Kenton McMillen (L) Scott Summers (G)
Debates Dates Location Kirk Duckworth LinkOctober 3, 2016Chicago, IllinoisParticipantParticipantFull debateOctober 27, 2016Springfield, IllinoisParticipantParticipantFull debateNovember 4, 2016Chicago, IllinoisParticipantParticipantFull debate
Campaign Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website, and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background. Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective senator. This election had been cited as historic, as both major party nominees had physical disabilities.
Endorsements
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 2, 2016 Inside Elections November 3, 2016 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 Daily Kos November 8, 2016 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2016
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin MarkKirk (R) TammyDuckworth (D) Other UndecidedSurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% 39% 56% — 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,505 ± 4.6% 39% 56% — 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 1,120 ± 4.6% 40% 54% — 6%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 997 ± 4.6% 40% 55% — 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 911 ± 4.6% 39% 55% — 6%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,003 ± 4.6% 38% 57% — 5%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 27–30, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 36% 54% 5% 5%Loras CollegeLoras College October 26–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 34% 42% 6% 18%The Illinois Poll - Victory ResearchThe Illinois Poll - Victory Research October 16–18, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 39% 50% 3% 8%GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) October 4–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 41% 6% 16%Southern Illinois UniversitySouthern Illinois University Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 865 ± 3.3% 34% 48% 8% 10%Normington, Petts and Associates (D)Normington, Petts and Associates (D) September 27–29, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 46% — 17%Emerson CollegeEmerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 39% 41% 11% 9%Loras CollegeLoras College September 13–16, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 41% — 22%Normington, Petts and Associates (D)Normington, Petts and Associates (D) August 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 44% — 19%The Illinois Poll - Victory ResearchThe Illinois Poll - Victory Research July 14–16, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 37% 46% 4% 12%Normington, Petts and Associates (D) July 11–14, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 38% 40% — 22%Basswood Research (R)Basswood Research (R) July 11–12, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 42% 40% — 18%GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) March 30–31, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43% — 17%End Citizens UnitedEnd Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 948 ± 3.2% 41% 45% — 14%Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 36% 42% — 22%Ogden & FryOgden & Fry June 23, 2015 598 ± 4.1% 27% 44% — 29%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3.0% 45% 46% — 9%
with Andrea Zopp Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkKirk (R) AndreaZopp (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 38% 29% — 32%
with Lisa Madigan Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkKirk (R) LisaMadigan (D) UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 557 ± 4.2% 41% 41% 19%
with Michelle Obama Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkKirk (R) MichelleObama (D) UndecidedGravis MarketingGravis Marketing March 21–22, 2014 806 ± 3.0% 47% 42% 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 26–28, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 40% 51% 9%
with Pat Quinn Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkKirk (R) PatQuinn (D) UndecidedWe Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3.0% 55% 36% 9%
Results