General elections were held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Doug Ford, won 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature and formed a majority government. The Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne, lost official party status in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in Ontario. The Green Party of Ontario won a seat for the first time in their history, while the Trillium Party of Ontario lost its single seat gained by a floor-crossing during the 41st Parliament.
Background Redistribution of seats The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.
The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,as a result of the recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.
The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.
Change of fixed election date Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier. As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.
To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", and it came into effect in December 2016.
Prelude to campaign The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999, and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.
The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions". In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election.
According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised.
In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025. PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".
Mood of the voters According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for changesuch desire being more driven by emotion than by ideologyand one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for. The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose.
In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:
+ Voter gap analysis by party (February 2018)Liberal PC NDP Highlights PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%) At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all = Not voting for party; not considered = Not voting for party; shared consideration = Not voting for party; exclusive consideration = Will vote for party; others considered = Will vote for party; no others considered
Events leading up to the election (2014–2018) DateJune 12, 2014 The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.July 2, 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives. Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.July 24, 2014 The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.May 9, 2015 Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.September 24, 2015 Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal.November 1, 2016Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection. Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.January 24, 2018 CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations.January 25, 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.January 26, 2018 Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader.March 10, 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election. Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature.April 11, 2018First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance.April 16, 2018The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.May 7, 2018First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and WynneMay 9, 2018Electoral Writ issued.May 11, 2018Leaders' debate in Parry Sound.May 17, 2018Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time.May 26, 2018Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices.May 27, 2018Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser, held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC, CTV, Global, TVO, CPAC, CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath.May 30, 2018Advance voting ends at advance voting locations.June 1, 2018Advance voting ends at returning offices. June 2, 2018Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election.June 6, 2018Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST. June 7, 2018Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.
Campaign period Contests + Candidate contests in the ridingsCandidates nominated Ridings PartyPCNDPLibGreenIndOthMinor political parties fielding fewer than ten candidates are aggregated together.Totals4 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 19 19 19 19 19 15 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 956 43 43 43 43 43 43 5 5 8 6 2 3 1 6 7 2587 33 33 33 33 33 32 21 7 11 5 6 2 4 2 9 2318 15 15 15 15 15 15 9 8 3 1 3 6 5 1 9 1209 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 9 3 4 3 1 0 0 15 9010 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1011 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11Total 124 124 124 124 124 117 42 32 25 16 14 12 10 10 49 823
Issues + 2018 Ontario election – issues and respective party platformsIssueLiberalPCNDPBudget Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024–25 Conduct a value-for-money audit of the government's spending Conduct an independent commission of inquiry into the previous government's spending Centralize government purchasing Increase the Risk Management Program limit by $50 million annually Eliminate the Jobs and Prosperity fund There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5billion and $2billion.Child care Publicly-funded child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income Fund a sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75% of their child-care costs Income-based scale for child care, providing publicly-funded child care for families earning under $40,000 annually and public funding to reduce the cost of childcare to an average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000Education Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12 $3billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions Replace the present curricula for sex education Return to traditional mathematics education Ban cell phones in all primary and secondary school classrooms Limit funding to postsecondary institutions that do not respect free speech Make mathematics training mandatory in teachers’ college Increase funding for children with autism by $38 million $16billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools Cap kindergarten class sizes at 26 students Abolish standardized EQAO testing Give OSAP-qualified students non-repayable grants instead of loans Remove interest from existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principalEnvironment Proceed with April 2018 announcement to spend $1.7billion over three years towards retrofitting homes for energy efficiency Hire more conservation officers Create an emissions-reduction fund to subsidize new technologies that reduce emissions