Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum

This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit pollsScottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 (Scot), schedule 7 clause 8. Retrieved 18 September 2014"Factbox - Scotland's independence vote: How will the results come?" Reuters Sept 17, 2014 although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland ("yes" supporters), and Better Together ("no" supporters).

Opinion polls conducted by British Polling Council members

Overview

Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population—this is a slight decline from 2007, when the Scottish National Party (SNP) first formed the Scottish Government. Up until January 2012, there was an insignificant amount of poll evidence showing majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" declined.

Polls in March and April 2014 showed opposition to independence at an average of 55% (excluding those who registered a "Don't know" opinion), compared to 61% in the period before December 2013. During September 2014, the month of the referendum, the poll results appeared to narrow further—as of 11 September, the average opposition to independence stood at 51%.

A poll by Survation in April 2014 suggested that a high turnout in the referendum would be likely: 75% of respondents indicated that they were certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 63% for the 2015 United Kingdom general election.

Results Only polling companies that are members of the British Polling Council, and therefore fully disclose their findings and methodology, are shown in this section. Three methods of conducting polls were used by the polling companies for referendum polling. YouGov, Survation and Panelbase conducted polls online, although Survation's final poll was by telephone. Ipsos Mori conducted their polls by telephone, ICM conducted online and telephone polls for different clients and TNS BMRB used face to face interviews. There were variations in the questions used by each company, with TNS BMRB, ICM and Panelbase asking respondents how they intended to vote on 18 September 2014, while YouGov, Survation and Ipsos Mori asked their respondents how they would vote if the referendum were held immediately.

Headline figures from ICM, Panelbase, Survation and Ipsos MORI only showed those who say they are certain or very likely to vote in referendum. TNS BMRB and YouGov headline figures showed voting intention for all voters.

2014 Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecided Lead 18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6% 16–17 Sep Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 991 45% 50% 5% 5% 16–17 Sep Survation/Daily Record 1,160 43% 48% 9% 5% 15–17 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 3,237 45% 49% 6% 4% 15–17 Sep Panelbase 1,004 45% 50% 5% 5% 15–16 Sep Ipsos MORI/STV 1,373 47% 49% 5% 2% 12–16 Sep ICM/The Scotsman 1,175 41% 45% 14% 4% 12–16 Sep Survation/Daily Mail 1,000 44% 48% 8% 4% 12–15 Sep Opinium/Telegraph 1,156 43% 47% 8% 4% 10–12 Sep Survation/Better Together 1,044 42% 49% 9% 7% 9–12 Sep Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,014 46% 47% 7% 1% 11 Sep Broadcast of Scotland Decides: The Big, Big Debate 10–11 Sep ICM/Sunday Telegraph 705 49% 42% 9% 7% 9–11 Sep Opinium/Observer 1,055 43% 47% 10% 4% 9–11 Sep ICM/Guardian 1,000 40% 42% 17% 2% 9–11 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 1,268 45% 50% 5% 5% 5–9 Sep Survation/Daily Record 1,000 42% 48% 10% 6% 2–5 Sep YouGov/The Sunday Times 1,084 47% 45% 7% 2% 2–4 Sep Panelbase/Yes Scotland 1,042 44% 48% 8% 4% 27 Aug–4 Sep TNS BMRB 990 38% 39% 23% 1% 28 Aug–1 Sep YouGov/The Times/The Sun 1,063 42% 48% 10% 6% 26–28 Aug Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,001 41% 47% 12% 6% 25 Aug Broadcast of Scotland Decides: Salmond versus Darling 12–15 Aug YouGov/The Times 1,085 38% 51% 11% 13% 12–15 Aug Panelbase/Yes Scotland 1,026 42% 46% 12% 4% 11–14 Aug ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,005 38% 47% 14% 9% 11 Aug Publication of The Wee Blue Book 6–7 Aug Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,010 37% 50% 13% 13% 4–7 Aug YouGov/The Sun 1,142 35% 55% 10% 20% 23 Jul–7 Aug TNS BMRB 1,003 32% 45% 23% 13% 5 Aug Broadcast of Salmond & Darling: The Debate 28 Jul–3 Aug Ipsos MORI/STV 1,006 40% 54% 7% 14% 30 Jul–1 Aug Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,000 40% 46% 14% 6% 16–22 Jul Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,041 41% 48% 11% 7% 7–11 Jul ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,002 34% 45% 21% 11% 25 Jun–9 Jul TNS BMRB 995 32% 41% 27% 9% 4–8 Jul Survation/Daily Record 1,013 41% 46% 13% 5% 25–29 Jun YouGov/The Times 1,206 35% 54% 12% 19% 10–23 Jun TNS BMRB/Scotland September 18 1,004 32% 46% 22% 14% 16 Jun Release of the draft Scottish Independence Bill consultation paper 12–16 Jun YouGov/The Sun 1,039 36% 53% 11% 17% 9–12 Jun ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,002 36% 43% 21% 7% 9–11 Jun Panelbase/Yes Scotland 1,060 43% 46% 12% 3% 6–10 Jun Survation/Daily Record 1,004 39% 44% 17% 5% 2 Jun Release of Scottish Conservatives Strathclyde Commission Report 26 May–1 Jun Ipsos MORI/STV 1,003 36% 54% 10% 18% 30 May Official Campaign Period begins 21–28 May TNS BMRB 1,011 30% 42% 28% 12% 12–15 May ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,003 34% 46% 20% 12% 8–14 May Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,046 40% 47% 13% 7% 9–12 May Survation/Daily Record 1,003 37% 47% 17% 10% 23 Apr–2 May TNS BMRB 996 30% 42% 28% 12% 25–28 Apr YouGov/Channel 4 1,208 37% 51% 12% 14% 14–16 Apr ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,004 39% 42% 19% 3% 11–15 Apr Survation/Sunday Post 1,001 38% 46% 16% 8% 4–9 Apr Panelbase/Yes Scotland 1,024 40% 45% 15% 5% 4–7 Apr Survation/Daily Record 1,002 37% 47% 16% 10% 28 Mar–4 Apr Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,025 41% 46% 14% 5% 21 Mar–2 Apr TNS BMRB 988 29% 41% 30% 12% 20–24 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,072 37% 52% 11% 15% 17–21 Mar ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,010 39% 46% 15% 7% 18 Mar Release of Scottish Labour Devolution Commission Report 7–14 Mar Panelbase/Newsnet Scotland 1,036 40% 45% 15% 5% 26 Feb–9 Mar TNS BMRB 1,019 28% 42% 30% 14% 6–7 Mar Survation/Daily Record/Better Nation 1,002 39% 48% 13% 9% 24–28 Feb YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,257 35% 53% 12% 18% 20–25 Feb IpsosMORI/STV 1,001 32% 57% 11% 25% 18–21 Feb Panelbase/Scottish National Party 1,022 37% 47% 16% 10% 17–21 Feb ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,004 37% 49% 14% 12% 17–18 Feb Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,005 38% 47% 16% 9% 13 Feb Chancellor of the Exchequer's speech on currency union 29 Jan–6 Feb Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,012 37% 49% 14% 12% 28 Jan–6 Feb TNS BMRB 996 29% 42% 29% 13% 3–5 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,047 34% 52% 14% 18% 29–31 Jan Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,010 32% 52% 16% 20% 21–27 Jan YouGov 1,192 33% 52% 15% 19% 21–24 Jan ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,004 37% 44% 19% 7% 14–20 Jan TNS BMRB 1,054 29% 42% 29% 13% 3–10 Jan TNS BMRB/BBC Scotland 1,008 28% 42% 30% 14%

2013 Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecided Lead 3–10 Dec TNS BMRB 1,055 27% 41% 33% 14% 6–9 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,074 36% 55% 10% 19% 29 Nov–5 Dec Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,006 34% 57% 10% 23% 26 Nov Release of Scotland's Future 20–27 Nov TNS BMRB 1,004 26% 42% 32% 16% 12–20 Nov Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 38% 47% 15% 9% 23–30 Oct TNS BMRB 1,010 25% 43% 32% 18% 17–24 Oct Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,008 37% 45% 17% 8% 25 Sep–2 Oct TNS BMRB 1,004 25% 44% 31% 19% 13–16 Sep YouGov/The Times 1,139 32% 52% 13% 20% 9–15 Sep Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,000 31% 59% 9% 28% 10–13 Sep ICM/Scotland on Sunday 1,002 32% 49% 19% 17% 30 Aug–5 Sep Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,002 37% 47% 16% 10% 23–28 Aug Panelbase/Scottish National Party 1,043 44% 43% 13% 1% 21–27 Aug TNS BMRB 1,017 25% 47% 28% 22% 19–22 Aug YouGov/Devo Plus 1,171 29% 59% 10% 30% 16 Aug Angus Reid/Daily Express 549 34% 47% 19% 13% 17–24 July Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,001 37% 46% 17% 9% 10–16 May Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 36% 44% 20% 8% 29 Apr–5 May Ipsos MORI/The Times 1,001 28% 57% 15% 29% 20 Mar–2 Apr TNS BMRB 1,002 30% 51% 19% 21% 18–22 Mar Panelbase/Sunday Times 885 36% 46% 18% 10% 20–28 Feb TNS BMRB/Scottish CND 1,001 33% 52% 15% 19% 4–9 Feb Ipsos MORI/The Times 1,003 32% 52% 16% 20% 30 Jan–1 Feb 1,003 32% 47% 20% 15% 11–21 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 34% 47% 19% 13% 3–9 Jan TNS BMRB 1,012 28% 48% 24% 20% 3–4 Jan 573 32% 50% 16% 18%

2012 Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecided Lead 22–24 Oct YouGov/DC Thomson 1,004 29% 55% 14% 26% 9–19 Oct Panelbase/Sunday Times 972 37% 45% 17% 8% 15 Oct Edinburgh Agreement (2012) 8–15 Oct Ipsos MORI/The Times 1,003 28% 52% 19% 24% 26 Sep–4 Oct TNS BMRB 995 28% 53% 19% 25% 17–20 Jun YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 30% 54% 16% 24% 7–14 Jun Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun 1,003 32% 55% 13% 20% 27–29 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Times/The Sun 1,005 37% 50% 13% 13% 9–11 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,002 33% 53% 14% 20%

2011 Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecided Lead 26–27 Oct YouGov/Scotsman 1,075 34% 52% 12% 18% 24–31 Aug TNS BMRB/The Herald 1,007 39% 38% 23% 1% 25–29 Aug Ipsos MORI 703 35% 60% 5% 25% 25–31 May TNS BMRB/The Herald 1,022 37% 45% 18% 8% 5 May 2011 Scottish Parliament election 26–29 Apr YouGov/Scotsman 28% 57% 12% 29%

Other public polling

Two-option polling by other organisations Some opinion polls were conducted by organisations that were not members of the British Polling Council and therefore not obliged to fully disclose their findings and methodology.

Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecided Lead 18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6% May 2014 Progressive Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail ??? 34% 54% 12% 20% Sep 2013 Progressive Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday ??? 27% 59% 14% 32% Feb–May 2013 Lord Ashcroft Polls† 10,007 25% 65% 10% 39%

† The question should Scotland be an independent country? was the 26th asked question out of a total of 26.

Regional polling ComRes conducted polls for ITV Border, surveying people in the council areas of Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway on how they would vote in an immediate referendum.

Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecided Lead 18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results (Dumfries and Galloway) 106,775 34.3% 65.7% 31.4 18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results (Scottish Borders) 83,526 33.4% 66.6% 33.2 3–9 Sep 2014 ComRes/ITV Border 1,000 27% 56% 17% 29% 9–15 Jun 2014 ComRes/ITV Border 1,001 26% 61% 13% 35% 2–6 Jan 2014 ComRes/ITV Border 1,004 24% 59% 17% 35%

Three-option polling Before the Edinburgh Agreement clarified that the referendum would be a straight yes or no question on the issue of independence, some three option opinion polls were conducted. The third option in these polls was some (undefined) form of increased devolution. YouGov occasionally asked the question following the Edinburgh Agreement.

Date(s)conductedPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevo MaxStatus QuoUndecided 2-5 Sep 2014 YouGov42% 36% 14% 7% 20-24 Mar 2014 YouGov 31% 36% 22% 11% 26 Oct 2012 YouGov 23% 41% 25% 11% 14 Jun 2012 Ipsos MORI 27% 41% 29% 4% 13 Jan 2012 ICM 26% 26% 33% 10% 1 Nov 2011 TNS BMRB 28% 33% 29% 10%

Demographic polling

Polling indicated higher support for independence among male voters, voters under the age of 55 and voters from economically deprived areas, compared to higher support for the Union among female voters, voters over the age of 55 and voters living in affluent areas.