Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.

Party vote and key events Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Individual polls + DateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF MRI ACT UNF CON MNA TOP 20 Sep 2014 2014 election result47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.42For the Internet MANA party vote alliance. 29 Sep – 12 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan Research43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1 27 Oct – 9 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan Research49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5 24 Nov – 7 Dec 2014 Roy Morgan Research46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1 8–21 Dec 2014 Herald–DigiPoll50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2 5–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan Research52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0 20–28 Jan 2015 3 News–Reid Research49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6 2–15 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan Research49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0 14–18 Feb 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4 2–15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan Research46.5 31 11 6 2 1 – 1.5 – 28 Mar 2015 The Northland by-election is won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. 11–15 Apr 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 – 1.5 1.1 6–19 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan Research45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 – 1 – 17–26 Apr 2015 Herald-DigiPoll51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 – 1.1 – 4–17 May 2015 Roy Morgan Research54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 – 21 May 2015 The 2015 Budget is delivered. 23–27 May 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 – 2.3 – 21–27 May 2015 3 News–Reid Research46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 – 1.9 0.1 30 May 2015 James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as the Green Party co-leader. 8–21 Jun 2015 Roy Morgan Research49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 – 1 – 22–27 Jun 2015 The Conservative Party disintegrates as leader Colin Craig and all board members resign. Acting leadership of the party is left unclear. 29 Jun – 12 Jul 2015 Roy Morgan Research43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 – 1.5 – 11–15 Jul 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 – – 0.5 15–22 Jul 2015 3 News–Reid Research47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.2 3–16 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan Research50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 – – 0.5 14–24 Aug 2015 Herald-DigiPoll50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 – 0.6 0.2 29 Aug – 2 Sep 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton47 32 12 7 1.2 0.1 – 0.1 0.2 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2015 Roy Morgan Research44.5 31 15 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 8–16 Sep 2015 3 News–Reid Research47.3 33 10 7.9 0.5 0.6 – 0.5 – 31 Sep – 11 Oct 2015 Roy Morgan Research50 29 11.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 10–14 Oct 2015 One News–Colmar Brunton47 31 12 9 0.8 0.2 – 0.4 – 26 Oct – 8 Nov 2015 Roy Morgan Research49 29.5 12 6 2 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 9–17 Nov 2015 3 News–Reid Research46.7 32.3 10.2 7.5 1.3 0.8 – 0.7 0.2 23 Nov – 6 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan Research49 28.5 13 6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – 4–14 Dec 2015 Herald-DigiPoll51.3 31.1 8.2 5.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 – – 4–17 Jan 2016 Roy Morgan Research47 27.5 14 6.5 3 0.5 – 1 – 4 Feb 2016 The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is signed by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries. 1–14 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan Research48 27 14.5 6 1 0.5 – 1 0.5 13–17 Feb 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton47 32 8 10 1.1 0.3 – 0.6 0.3 29 Feb – 13 Mar 2016 Roy Morgan Research46 28 14 9 1 1 – 0.5 0.5 2–6 Apr 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton50 28 10 9 1.1 0.7 – 0.3 – 4–17 Apr 2016 Roy Morgan Research42.5 26 14.5 12.5 1.5 1.5 – 1 – 2–15 May 2016 Roy Morgan Research45.5 29.5 12 9.5 1 1 0 0.5 – 12–22 May 2016 Newshub Reid Research47 31.3 11.1 7.8 1 0.4 – 0.6 0.1 26 May 2016 The 2016 Budget is delivered. 31 May 2016 The Labour and Green parties undertake a memorandum of understanding. 28 May – 2 Jun 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton48 29 12 9 0.7 0.3 – 0.7 0.1 12 Jun 2016 Roy Morgan Research43.5 28 14.5 9 2 0.5 – 1 1 17 Jul 2016 Roy Morgan Research53 25.5 11.5 7 0.5 1 – 0.5 0.5 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 Newshub Reid Research45.1 32.7 11.5 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 8–21 Aug 2016 Roy Morgan Research46 25.5 14.5 9.5 1.5 1 – 1 0.5 3–7 Sep 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton48 26 13 11 2 – – 0.3 – 5–18 Sep 2016 Roy Morgan Research41.5 33.5 12 8.5 2 1 – 0.5 – 10–23 Oct 2016 Roy Morgan Research48 26.5 11.5 10 1.5 0.5 – – – 14 Nov 2016 A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits the coastal town of Kaikōura. Nov 2016 The Opportunities Party is inaugurated by Gareth Morgan. 12–23 Nov 2016 One News–Colmar Brunton50 28 11 10 1 – – 0.2 – – 24 Oct – 20 Nov 2016 Roy Morgan Research49.5 23.0 14.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 – 3 Dec 2016 Labour's Michael Wood wins the Mount Roskill by-election. 5 Dec 2016 John Key announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of New Zealand, effective 12 December. 28 Nov – 11 Dec 2016 Roy Morgan Research45.0 28.5 14.5 7.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – 12 Dec 2016 Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.Paula Bennett becomes both Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader. 3–16 Jan 2017 Roy Morgan Research46.0 27.0 12.5 9.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 – 1 Feb 2017 Prime Minister Bill English announces that the election will take place on 23 September 2017.30 Jan – 12 Feb 2017 Roy Morgan Research48.0 26.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 – 11–15 Feb 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton46 30 11 11 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.0 25 Feb 2017 Labour's Jacinda Ardern wins the Mount Albert by-election. 1 Mar 2017 Annette King steps down as Labour Party Deputy Leader and announces her retirement from Parliament, effective September. Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern is nominated as her successor and is confirmed six days later with the unanimous support of Labour's caucus. 6 Mar 2017 The Opportunities Party is registered by the Electoral Commission.27 Feb – 12 Mar 2017 Roy Morgan Researche43.5 29.5 14.5 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – 10–19 Mar 2017 Newshub Reid Research47.1 30.8 11.2 7.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 18–22 Mar 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton46 30 11 8 4 0.4 – 0.3 0.2 0.4 3–16 Apr 2017 Roy Morgan Research43.0 29.5 13.0 10.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 – 1–14 May 2017 Roy Morgan Research43.0 28.5 14.0 10.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 – 25 May 2017 The 2017 budget is delivered. 19–24 May 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights 43.75 23.75 16.25 10.00 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.25 – 2.50 21–31 May 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton49 30 9 9 0.6 0.5 – 0.1 – 1.4 29 May – 11 Jun 2017 Roy Morgan Research46.5 25.5 14.0 9.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 – 12 Jun 2017 Newshub Reid Research47.4 26.4 12.5 9.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.8 21 Jun 2017 National MP Todd Barclay announces he will not seek re-election after it was revealed that he secretly recorded a staff member's conversations without her consent. Police re-open their investigation five days later, after Bill English stated that Barclay had admitted to him that he made the recording. 1–5 Jul 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton47 27 11 11 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 26 Jun – 9 Jul 2017 Roy Morgan Research43 30.5 13.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 – 16 Jul 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to not disclosing to Work and Income New Zealand that she was accepting rent from flatmates while on the Domestic Purposes Benefit in the early 1990s. 22–27 Jul 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton47 24 15 11 0.6 0.3 0.1 – – 1.5 20–28 Jul 2017 Newshub Reid Research45.2 24.1 13 13 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2 1 Aug 2017 Labour Party leader Andrew Little resigns as Leader of the Labour Party following consecutive poll results that show Labour with low support. Jacinda Ardern is confirmed as Leader shortly after while Kelvin Davis assumes the role of Deputy Leader.1–2 Aug 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights 45.42 26.79 13.98 9.32 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33 3 Aug 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to registering a false residential address to vote for a friend who was running in the Mount Albert electorate in 1993. The controversy leads Green Party MPs David Clendon and Kennedy Graham to withdraw from the party list four days later.2–8 Aug 2017 Newshub Reid Research 44.4 33.1 8.3 9.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 2 9 Aug 2017 Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader and from the party list following her admission of benefit fraud. 31 Jul – 13 Aug 2017 Roy Morgan Research42.5 32.5 9.0 11.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.012–16 Aug 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton44 37 4.3 10 1.7 0.4 0.0 – – 2.1 21 Aug 2017 United Future leader and Minister of Internal Affairs Peter Dunne announces his retirement from politics. Damian Light (candidate for Botany) is appointed leader 2 days later. 27 Aug 2017 Controversy arises after a leak reveals that NZ First leader Winston Peters was overpaid in his superannuation payments for years.22–30 Aug 2017 Newshub Reid Research 43.3 39.4 6.1 6.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.926–30 Aug 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 41 43 5 8 0.5 0.3 – – – 0.9 1–5 Sep 2017 Listener: Bauer Media Insights 38.9 41.1 6.7 8.9 1.1 1.1 – – – 2.2 2–6 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 39 43 5 9 2.0 0.1 – – – 1.94–6 Sep 2017 Newsroom-SSI 30 45 6 11 2 1 – – – 228 Aug – 10 Sep 2017 Roy Morgan Research40 39.5 9 6 2 0.5 0 0.5 – 2 6–11 Sep 2017 Newshub Reid Research 47.3 37.8 4.9 6.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6 11 Sep 2017 Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission predicts up to 50% of voters will cast their vote before election day (up from 30% in 2014). 9–13 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 40 44 7 6 0.9 0.6 – – – 1.6 13–20 Sep 2017 Newshub Reid Research 45.8 37.3 7.1 7.1 0.4 0.6 – 0.6 0.1 0.9 15–19 Sep 2017 One News–Colmar Brunton 46 37 8 4.9 0.5 0.3 – – – 2.3 23 Sep 2017 Election day 23 Sep 2017 2017 election result44.4 36.9 6.3 7.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4 Date Poll NAT LAB GRN NZF MRI ACT UNF CON MNA TOP

Internal polls These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.