In the run up to the 2014 Indian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to April 2014. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.
Background Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation."In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.
Post-poll surveys or Exit Polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls. According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats. However, in 2014, it was the opposite and most exit polls underestimated the number of seats to be won by BJP and allies.
Opinion polls
Seats
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size UPA NDA Left Other Jan–Mar 2013 Times Now-CVoter No sample size provided 128 184 – – Apr–May 2013 Headlines Today-CVoter 120,000 209 (without Modi) 155(with Modi) 179(without Modi) 220 (with Modi) – – May 2013 This Content Has been removed from Internet And was seen AT "http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-upa-set-for-a-crushing-defeatsurvey ". The Site which was earlier named as newsbullet.in has been changed to abplive.in with no previous content. ABP News-Nielsen 33,408 136 206 – – Jul 2013 The Week – Hansa Research No sample size provided 184 197 – 162 Jul 2013 CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS 19,062 149–157 172–180 –208–224 Jul 2013 Times Now-India Today-CVoter 36,914 134 (INC 119) 156 (BJP 131) – – Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 117 (INC 102) 186 (BJP 162) –240 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 103 (INC 91) 212 (BJP 188) –228 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 ABP News-Nielsen 64,006 101 (INC 81) 226 (BJP 210) – 216 Jan 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 18,591 107 – 127 (INC 92 – 108) 211 – 231 (BJP 192 – 210) – 205 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 101 (INC 89) 227 (BJP 202) – 215 Feb 2014 ABP News-Nielsen 29,000 92 236 29 186 Feb 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 29,000 119 – 139 (INC 94 – 110) 212 – 232 (BJP 193 – 213) 105–193 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 128 230 55 130 March 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 20,957 111–123 234–246 174–198 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 111 (INC 92) 275 (BJP 226) 157
Votes
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size UPA NDA Left Other December 2013 – January 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 23% 34% – 43% December 2013 – January 2014 ABP News-Nielsen 64,006 23% 31% 5% 41% January 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 18,591 36% (INC 27%) 28% (BJP 34%) 4% 32% February 2014 ABP News-Nielsen 20 46 5% 40% April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 25.6% 34.5% 39.9%
Graphs
Statewise opinion polling
Andhra Pradesh (42)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP TDP YSR Congress TRS Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 7 – 8 13 13 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 7 – 8 13 13 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 6 2 10 13 10 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa ResearchThe poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 1 seat was given to others in Telangana. Moreover, BJP and TDP were taken to be a coalition 46,571 6 9 15 9 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1308 4–8 13–19 9–15 4–8 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa ResearchThe poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 24,000 6 18 9 8 4–12 April 2014 India Today-Cicero 1358 4–6 17–21 7–11 6–10
Arunachal Pradesh (2)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1
Assam (14)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP AGP AUDF BPF Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 9 3 0 1 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 7 5 0 1 1 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa ResearchThe poll gave one seat to others. 46,571 12 1 0 0 0
Bihar (40)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC-RJD-NCP BJP-LJP JD(U) Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 15 15 9 1 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 13 22 4 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 13 22 5 0 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 11 23 5 1 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1557 7–13 21–29 2–5 0–3 30 March – 2 April 2014 India Today-Cicero 1498 15–19 20–24 0–2 0–1 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 12 24 4 0
Chhattisgarh (11)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 3 8 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 3 8 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 2 9 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 8
Goa (2)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1
Gujarat (26)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 4 22 0 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 5 21 0 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 4 22 0 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 3 23 0 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 917 0–4 20–26 0–2 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 4 22 0
Haryana (10)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP-HJC INLD AAP Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 5 4 1 0 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 7 1 1 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 3 7 0 0 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 2 6 2 0
Himachal Pradesh (4)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 3 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 3
Jammu and Kashmir (6)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP PDP NC Others (IND. & People's Conference) Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1 1 2 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 2 2 1 0
Jharkhand (14)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP JMM JVM Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 6 2 3 2 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 8 2 2 1 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 4 6 2 0 2 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 1 12 1 0 0
Karnataka (28)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP JD(S) AAP Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 13 12 3 0 0 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 12 13 0 0 3 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 14 11 2 1 0 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 6 20 2 0 0 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 825 12–18 7–13 1 – 4 (Including Others) 0 1 – 4 (Including JD(S)) April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 14 12 2 0 0
Kerala (20)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size BJP LDF INC KC(M) IUML Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 13 4 1 2 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter3 seats given to others 21,792 – 11 6 – – Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 9 7 1 2 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 0 13 7 (As UDF) March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 607 0 4–8 11 – 17 (As UDF) April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 0 12 8 (As UDF)
Madhya Pradesh (29)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP BSP Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 6 23 0 0 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 6 22 0 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 5 24 0 0 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 4 24 1 0 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1121 1–5 24–28 0 0 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 26 0 0
Maharashtra (48)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC NCP BJPWith Republican Party of India (Athvale) and Shiv Sena as National Democratic Alliance-NDA SS Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 11 6 15 14 2 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 9 5 14 14 6 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 8 5 17 15 3 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 12 33 3 March 2014 ABP News-Nielsen Not Available 8 5 19 12 4 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1662 16–22 24–30 1–3 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 9 37 2
Manipur (2)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 2 0 0 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0 1
Meghalaya (2)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC NPP Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1
Mizoram (1)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0
Nagaland (1)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size NPF Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 0 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0
Odisha (21)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP BJD Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 9 0 12 0 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 8 0 13 0 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 7 2 12 0 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 3 1 17 0 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 796 0–4 3–7 10–16 0–2 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 1 7 13 0
Punjab (13)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP SAD Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 4 2 7 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 6 2 5 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 8 5 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 6 7
Rajasthan (25)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 5 19 1 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 3 21 1 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 4 21 0 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 5 19 1 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 837 0–2 21–25 0–2 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 21 1
Sikkim (1)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP SDF Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 0 1
Tamil Nadu (39)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP AIADMK DMK Others Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 1 0 28 5 5 Dec 2013 – Jan 2014 India Today-CVoter 21,792 0 – 29 5 5 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0 27 5 6 March 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 46,571 0 0 27 10 2 March–April 2014 CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS 1460 0 6 – 10 (In alliance) 15–21 10 – 16 (In alliance) 0 April 2014 NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 0 3 (In alliance) 22 14 (In alliance) 0 4–12 April 2014 India Today-Cicero 1358 0 4 – 6 (In alliance) 20–24 9 – 13 (In alliance) 0–2
Tripura (2)
When conducted Ref Polling organisation/agency Sample size INC BJP CPI(M) Aug–Oct 2013 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 24,284 0 0 2 Jan–Feb 2014 Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 0 2
Uttar Pradesh (80)