2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by a 6.68% margin of victory in New Jersey. Bush, however, was re-elected to the presidency.

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered New Jersey a blue state that Kerry would win. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, political observers believed that the presidential contest in New Jersey would be closer than usual. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign, and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state.

Primaries 2004 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. The table below shows their final predictions before Election Day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportCook Political ReportResearch 2000Zogby InternationalWashington PostWashington DispatchWashington TimesThe New York TimesCNNNewsweekAssociated PressRasmussen Reports

Polling Kerry led by small margins in most pre-election polls taken in New Jersey. A final three-poll rolling average showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 42%.

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) JohnKerry (D) RalphNader (I)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac June 11–16, 2003 815 RV ±3.4% 53% 37%– 1% 9%Quinnipiac September 18–22, 2003 968 RV ±3.2% 48% 43%–9%Quinnipiac November 6–10, 2003 1,027 RV ±3.1% 46% 45%– 1% 7%Quinnipiac May 10–16, 2004 1,122 RV ±2.9% 44% 47%– 1% 7% 43% 46% 5% 1% 6%Quinnipiac June 15–20, 2004 1,167 RV ±2.9% 41% 49%– 2% 7% 40% 46% 7% 0% 7%Quinnipiac July 30–August 2, 2004 996 RV ±3.1% 38% 52%– 2% 8% 36% 49% 6% 1% 8%Quinnipiac August 19–23, 2004 887 RV ±3.3% 39% 51%– 1% 8% 39% 49% 4% 1% 8%Quinnipiac September 16–19, 2004 672 LV ±3.8% 48% 48% 2% 0% 2% 48% 49% – 1% 2% 943 RV ±3.2% 43% 47% 3% 1% 6%Quinnipiac October 1–4, 2004 819 LV ±3.4% 46% 49% 2% 1% 3% 46% 49% – 1% 4%Quinnipiac October 14–17, 2004 786 LV ±2.9% 45% 49% 1% 0% 4% 45% 50% – 0% 5% 1,123 RV ±2.9% 39% 46% 2% 0% 12%Quinnipiac October 21–25, 2004 852 LV ±3.4% 46% 46% 2% 1% 6% 1,179 RV ±2.9% 41% 45% 2% 1% 12%Quinnipiac October 27–31, 2004 984 LV ±3.1% 43% 48% 2% 1% 6%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) GenericDemocratOtherUndecidedQuinnipiac December 3–9, 2002 934 RV ±3.2% 43% 45% 2% 9% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) WesleyClark (D)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac September 18–22, 2003 968 RV ±3.2% 47% 42%11%Quinnipiac November 6–10, 2003 1,027 RV ±3.1% 47% 45% 1% 8% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) HillaryClinton (D)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac June 11–16, 2003 815 RV ±3.4% 54% 38% 2% 7%Quinnipiac September 18–22, 2003 968 RV ±3.2% 47% 45%8%Quinnipiac November 6–10, 2003 1,027 RV ±3.1% 46% 45% 1% 7% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) HowardDean (D)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac September 18–22, 2003 968 RV ±3.2% 50% 40%10%Quinnipiac November 6–10, 2003 1,027 RV ±3.1% 48% 45% 1% 6% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) DickGephardt (D)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac September 18–22, 2003 968 RV ±3.2% 48% 44%8%Quinnipiac November 6–10, 2003 1,027 RV ±3.1% 48% 45% 1% 6% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) AlGore (D)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac December 3–9, 2002 934 RV ±3.2% 48% 45% 2% 5% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror George W.Bush (R) JoeLieberman (D)OtherUndecidedQuinnipiac June 11–16, 2003 815 RV ±3.4% 53% 39% 1% 7%Quinnipiac September 18–22, 2003 968 RV ±3.2% 49% 44%7%Quinnipiac November 6–10, 2003 1,027 RV ±3.1% 46% 47% 1% 5%

Fundraising Bush raised $5,934,011 from New Jersey donors, while Kerry raised $6,513,274.

Results 2004 United States presidential election in New JerseyPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Kerry 1,911,430 52.92%15 Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) 1,670,003 46.24% 0 Independent Ralph Nader 19,418 0.54% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 4,514 0.12% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka 2,750 0.08% 0 Green David Cobb 1,807 0.05% 0 Socialist Walt Brown 664 0.02% 0 Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 575 0.02% 0 Socialist Workers Roger Calero 530 0.01% 0 Totals 3,611,691 100.00% 15 Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 56%/72%

By county County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Atlantic 55,746 52.54% 49,487 46.64% 864 0.81% 6,259 5.90% 106,097 Bergen 207,666 51.88% 189,833 47.43% 2,745 0.69% 17,833 4.45% 400,244 Burlington 110,411 53.09% 95,936 46.13% 1,609 0.77% 14,475 6.96% 207,956 Camden 137,765 62.36% 81,427 36.86% 1,741 0.79% 56,338 25.50% 220,933 Cape May 21,475 42.31% 28,832 56.80% 455 0.90% −7,357 −14.49% 50,762 Cumberland 27,875 52.41% 24,362 45.81% 948 1.78% 3,513 6.60% 53,185 Essex 203,681 70.39% 83,374 28.81% 2,293 0.79% 120,307 41.58% 289,348 Gloucester 66,835 52.23% 60,033 46.91% 1,096 0.86% 6,802 5.32% 127,964 Hudson 127,447 67.24% 60,646 31.99% 1,461 0.77% 66,801 35.25% 189,554 Hunterdon 26,050 39.07% 39,888 59.82% 742 1.11% −13,838 −20.75% 66,680 Mercer 91,580 61.25% 56,604 37.86% 1,326 0.89% 34,976 23.39% 149,510 Middlesex 166,628 56.33% 126,492 42.76% 2,685 0.91% 40,136 13.57% 295,805 Monmouth 133,773 44.60% 163,650 54.56% 2,516 0.84% −29,877 −9.96% 299,939 Morris 98,066 41.70% 135,241 57.51% 1,847 0.79% −37,175 −15.81% 235,154 Ocean 99,839 38.93% 154,204 60.13% 2,424 0.95% −54,365 −21.20% 256,467 Passaic 94,962 55.43% 75,200 43.90% 1,149 0.67% 19,762 11.53% 171,311 Salem 13,749 46.17% 15,721 52.79% 311 1.04% −1,972 −6.62% 29,781 Somerset 66,476 47.39% 72,508 51.69% 1,295 0.92% −6,032 −4.30% 140,279 Sussex 23,990 34.54% 44,506 64.08% 962 1.38% −20,516 −29.54% 69,458 Union 119,372 58.66% 82,517 40.55% 1,613 0.79% 36,855 18.11% 203,502 Warren 18,044 37.43% 29,542 61.28% 622 1.29% −11,498 −23.85% 48,208Totals1,911,43052.92%1,670,00346.23%30,7040.85%241,4276.69%3,612,137

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township) Monmouth (largest municipality: Middletown Township)

By congressional district Kerry won seven of 13 congressional districts. District Kerry Bush Representative 61% 39%Rob Andrews 49% 50%Frank LoBiondo 49% 51%Jim Saxton 44% 56%Chris Smith 43% 57%Scott Garrett 57% 43%Frank Pallone Jr. 47% 53%Mike Ferguson 59% 41%Bill Pascrell 59% 41%Steve Rothman 82% 18%Donald Payne 42% 58%Rodney Frelinghuysen 54% 46%Rush Holt Jr. 69% 31%Bob Menendez

Analysis Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. Bush won the largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris) and Salem County in the southwest. He also carried the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May.

This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the first time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1860 and 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.

Electors

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state of New Jersey in 2004. All 15 were pledged to support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards. Warren Wallace Wilfredo Caraballo Tom Canzanella Carolyn Walch Peggy Anastos Bernard Kenny Ronald Rice Abed Awad Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey) Wendy Benchle Loni Kaplan Carolyn Wade Riletta L. Cream Bernadette McPherson Upendra Chivukula

See also United States presidential elections in New Jersey Presidency of George W. Bush

References

External links Official Results (New Jersey Division of Elections) Official Results by municipality