2004 United States presidential election in California

The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2 as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all leading news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush would become the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.

This marked the first election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California and the first time since 1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser. It was also the first time since Californian statehood in 1850 that a presidential candidate, of any party, was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time.

This is the most recent election in which a Republican presidential candidate has received more than 40% of the vote in California. It is also the most recent time a Republican has won more than a third of the vote in Los Angeles County, and the latest time the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes and single-digit points.

Primaries 2004 California Democratic presidential primary 2004 California Republican presidential primary

Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportAssociated PressCNNCook Political ReportNewsweekNew York TimesRasmussen ReportsResearch 2000Washington PostWashington TimesZogby InternationalWashington Dispatch

Polling

Kerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Fundraising Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President

Advertising and visits Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.

Analysis

California was once a Republican-leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time a Republican candidate won the state was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.

In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin in Sacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor. These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.

Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win San Diego, San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties in a presidential election. Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties would not vote Republican again until 2024. He is also the last candidate of any party to win Butte county by a majority. This is the last time the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote until 2024.

Bush won whites 51%-47%, while Kerry won African-Americans 81%-18%, Latinos 63%-32%, and Asians 66%-34%.

Results 2004 United States presidential election in CaliforniaPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Forbes Kerry and John Reid Edwards 6,745,485 54.31% 55 Republican George Walker Bush and Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent) 5,509,826 44.36% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 50,165 0.40% 0 Green David Cobb 40,771 0.33% 0 Peace and Freedom Leonard Peltier 27,607 0.22% 0 American Independent Michael Peroutka 26,645 0.21% 0 Independent Ralph Nader (write-in) 20,714 0.17% 0 Independent John Joseph Kennedy (write-in) 82 0.00% 0 Independent John Parker (write-in) 49 0.00% 0 Independent James Alexander-Pace (write-in) 8 0.00% 0 Independent Anthony Jabin (write-in) 1 0.00% 0 Totals 12,421,353 100.00% 55 Voter turnout (Voting Age voters) 74.7%

By county County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Alameda 422,585 75.18% 130,911 23.29% 8,594 1.53% 291,674 51.89% 562,090 Alpine 373 53.21% 311 44.37% 17 2.43% 62 8.84% 701 Amador 6,541 36.56% 11,107 62.08% 243 1.36% -4,566 -25.52% 17,891 Butte 42,448 44.14% 51,662 53.73% 2,047 2.13% -9,214 -9.58% 96,157 Calaveras 8,286 37.09% 13,601 60.87% 456 2.04% -5,315 -23.79% 22,343 Colusa 1,947 31.58% 4,142 67.17% 77 1.25% -2,195 -35.60% 6,166 Contra Costa 257,254 62.28% 150,608 36.46% 5,166 1.25% 106,646 25.82% 413,028 Del Norte 3,892 41.31% 5,356 56.85% 173 1.84% -1,464 -15.54% 9,421 El Dorado 32,242 37.33% 52,878 61.23% 1,244 1.44% -20,636 -23.89% 86,364 Fresno 103,154 41.68% 141,988 57.38% 2,321 0.94% -38,834 -15.69% 247,463 Glenn 2,995 31.68% 6,308 66.72% 151 1.60% -3,313 -35.04% 9,454 Humboldt 37,988 57.66% 25,714 39.03% 2,184 3.31% 12,274 18.63% 65,886 Imperial 17,964 52.41% 15,890 46.36% 420 1.23% 2,074 6.05% 34,274 Inyo 3,350 38.88% 5,091 59.09% 175 2.03% -1,741 -20.21% 8,616 Kern 68,603 32.49% 140,417 66.49% 2,154 1.02% -71,814 -34.01% 211,174 Kings 10,833 33.74% 21,003 65.41% 274 0.85% -10,170 -31.67% 32,110 Lake 13,141 53.16% 11,093 44.88% 485 1.96% 2,048 8.29% 24,719 Lassen 3,158 27.58% 8,126 70.97% 166 1.45% -4,968 -43.39% 11,450 Los Angeles 1,907,736 63.10% 1,076,225 35.60% 39,319 1.30% 831,511 27.50% 3,023,280 Madera 13,481 34.70% 24,871 64.02% 498 1.28% -11,390 -29.32% 38,850 Marin 99,070 73.21% 34,378 25.40% 1,877 1.39% 64,692 47.80% 135,325 Mariposa 3,251 37.55% 5,215 60.23% 192 2.22% -1,964 -22.68% 8,658 Mendocino 24,385 63.45% 12,955 33.71% 1,089 2.83% 11,430 29.74% 38,429 Merced 24,491 42.26% 32,773 56.54% 696 1.20% -8,282 -14.29% 57,960 Modoc 1,149 25.72% 3,235 72.42% 83 1.86% -2,086 -46.70% 4,467 Mono 2,628 49.23% 2,621 49.10% 89 1.67% 7 0.13% 5,338 Monterey 75,241 60.36% 47,838 38.38% 1,574 1.26% 27,403 21.98% 124,653 Napa 33,666 59.48% 22,059 38.97% 874 1.54% 11,607 20.51% 56,599 Nevada 24,220 44.92% 28,790 53.39% 910 1.69% -4,570 -8.48% 53,920 Orange 419,239 38.98% 641,832 59.68% 14,328 1.33% -222,593 -20.70% 1,075,399 Placer 55,573 36.26% 95,969 62.61% 1,736 1.13% -40,396 -26.35% 153,278 Plumas 4,129 36.90% 6,905 61.71% 156 1.39% -2,776 -24.81% 11,190 Riverside 228,806 41.04% 322,473 57.83% 6,300 1.13% -93,667 -16.80% 557,579 Sacramento 236,657 49.52% 235,539 49.29% 5,670 1.19% 1,118 0.23% 477,866 San Benito 9,851 52.61% 8,698 46.45% 176 0.94% 1,153 6.16% 18,725 San Bernardino 227,789 43.57% 289,306 55.34% 5,682 1.09% -61,517 -11.77% 522,777 San Diego 526,437 46.33% 596,033 52.45% 13,874 1.22% -69,596 -6.12% 1,136,344 San Francisco 296,772 83.02% 54,355 15.21% 6,338 1.77% 242,417 67.82% 357,465 San Joaquin 87,012 45.83% 100,978 53.18% 1,874 0.99% -13,966 -7.36% 189,864 San Luis Obispo 58,742 45.52% 67,995 52.69% 2,313 1.79% -9,253 -7.17% 129,050 San Mateo 197,922 69.48% 83,315 29.25% 3,620 1.27% 114,607 40.23% 284,857 Santa Barbara 90,314 53.17% 76,806 45.22% 2,741 1.61% 13,508 7.95% 169,861 Santa Clara 386,100 63.94% 209,094 34.63% 8,622 1.43% 177,006 29.31% 603,816 Santa Cruz 89,102 72.98% 30,354 24.86% 2,628 2.15% 58,748 48.12% 122,084 Shasta 24,339 31.31% 52,249 67.22% 1,143 1.47% -27,910 -35.91% 77,731 Sierra 646 33.16% 1,249 64.12% 53 2.72% -603 -30.95% 1,948 Siskiyou 7,880 37.71% 12,673 60.64% 346 1.66% -4,793 -22.93% 20,899 Solano 85,096 57.17% 62,301 41.86% 1,440 0.97% 22,795 15.32% 148,837 Sonoma 148,261 67.18% 68,204 30.90% 4,225 1.91% 80,057 36.28% 220,690 Stanislaus 58,829 40.40% 85,407 58.65% 1,388 0.95% -26,578 -18.25% 145,624 Sutter 9,602 31.85% 20,254 67.19% 289 0.96% -10,652 -35.34% 30,145 Tehama 7,504 32.01% 15,572 66.42% 368 1.57% -8,068 -34.41% 23,444 Trinity 2,782 42.71% 3,560 54.66% 171 2.63% -778 -11.95% 6,513 Tulare 32,494 32.87% 65,399 66.15% 967 0.98% -32,905 -33.28% 98,860 Tuolumne 10,104 38.51% 15,745 60.02% 386 1.47% -5,641 -21.50% 26,235 Ventura 148,859 47.53% 160,314 51.19% 4,020 1.28% -11,455 -3.66% 313,193 Yolo 42,885 59.34% 28,005 38.75% 1,379 1.91% 14,880 20.59% 72,269 Yuba 5,687 31.55% 12,076 67.00% 261 1.45% -6,389 -35.45% 18,024Total 6,745,48554.31%5,509,82644.36%166,0421.34%1,235,6599.95%12,421,353

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Alpine (largest municipality: Markleeville) Mono (largest municipality: Mammoth Lakes)

By congressional district Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 22 going to Bush, including two that elected Democrats. District Bush Kerry Representative 38% 60%Mike Thompson 62% 37%Wally Herger58%41%Doug OseDan Lungren 61% 37%John Doolittle 38% 61%Bob Matsui 28% 70%Lynn Woolsey 32% 67%George Miller 14% 84%Nancy Pelosi 13% 86%Barbara Lee 40% 59%Ellen Tauscher 54% 45%Richard Pombo 27% 72%Tom Lantos 28% 71%Pete Stark 30% 68%Anna Eshoo 36% 63%Mike Honda 36% 63%Zoe Lofgren 33% 66%Sam Farr 50% 49%Dennis Cardoza 61% 38%George Radanovich48%51%Cal DooleyJim Costa 65% 34%Devin Nunes 68% 31%Bill Thomas 40% 58%Lois Capps 56% 43%Elton Gallegly 59% 40%Howard McKeon 55% 44%David Dreier 39% 59%Brad Sherman 28% 71%Howard Berman 37% 61%Adam Schiff 33% 66%Henry Waxman 22% 77%Xavier Becerra 37% 62%Hilda Solis 16% 83%Diane Watson 30% 69%Lucille Roybal-Allard 20% 79%Maxine Waters 40% 59%Jane Harman 25% 74%Juanita Millender-McDonald 34% 65%Grace Napolitano 40% 59%Linda Sánchez 60% 38%Ed Royce 62% 37%Jerry Lewis 62% 37%Gary Miller 41% 58%Joe Baca 59% 40%Ken Calvert 56% 43%Mary Bono Mack 57% 42%Dana Rohrabacher 50% 49%Loretta Sanchez58%40%Christopher CoxJohn Campbell 63% 36%Darrell Issa 55% 44%Brian Bilbray 46% 53%Bob Filner 61% 38%Duncan Hunter 38% 61%Susan Davis

By city +Official outcome by city and unincorporated areas of counties, of which Kerry won 266, Bush won 265, and 2 had tied outcomes. City County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total Votes 2000 to 2004