The Airports Commission was an independent commission established in September 2012 by the Government of the United Kingdom to consider how the UK could "maintain its status as an international hub for aviation and immediate actions to improve the use of existing runway capacity in the next 5 years". Alongside the proposal to build HS2, the question of how to make best use of and expand airport capacity had become the UK's most significant infrastructure issue over the preceding few years.
The five person commission, which was chaired by the economist Sir Howard Davies and reported to the Department for Transport (DfT), produced an Interim Report in December 2013 and delivered a Final Report in July 2015. It unanimously concluded in favour of a new northwest runway at Heathrow Airport.
Background
Expansion of London's airports
London, with six commercial airports in its metropolitan area, has the world's busiest airports system. However the question of how to expand the capacity of the system to cope with growing air travel demand is an issue that successive governments have failed to address since the 1950s. A previous commission – the Commission on the Third London Airport chaired by Eustace Roskill – sat between 1968 and 1971 and recommended that a site at Cublington in Buckinghamshire (to the north west of London) should be developed as London's third airport. A member of the commission, Colin Buchanan, wrote a dissenting report and recommended that an airport should be developed at Foulness (later known as Maplin Sands). The Government accepted Buchanan's report and an Act of Parliament was passed – the Maplin Development Act 1973 – that paved the way for a Thames Estuary Airport at Maplin. However the project was cancelled in 1974 in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis and the existing airport at Stansted (which was not shortlisted by the Roskill Commission) was subsequently developed as London's third airport.
Since the 1980s finding solutions to address the shortage of airport capacity has become more difficult because of the growth and development of Heathrow Airport as the UK's only hub airport, as opposed to all other UK airports which are based on the point-to-point airport operating model. The provision of additional capacity at major point-to-point airports, such as Gatwick or Stansted, would not address the UK's shortage of hub airport capacity. In 1978 the Traffic Distribution Rules were introduced to try to encourage British Airways (BA) to make greater use of Gatwick Airport as a second hub. However, in 1991, having incurred significant financial losses, BA ceased most of its operations from the airport. Today, Stansted—despite having very low landing charges—operates at less than 50% capacity and is home to a completely different set of low-cost airlines compared to the full-service airlines which operate at Heathrow.
Heathrow has been unable to expand to meet the rapid growth in demand for air travel and in particular from transfer passengers on which hub airports depend. This inability to expand has been due to a combination of:
the airport's location to the west of London and the UK's prevailing southwesterly winds, meaning that aircraft mainly approach the airport over Central London; and the level of dense urban development surrounding the airport.
These factors result in significant noise and air quality impacts for local residents and pose a major safety risk. As a result, there is widespread local opposition to the expansion of the airport even though many local people benefit from it in terms of employment. In part due to this issue, there are also a large number of marginal Parliamentary constituencies located around the airport meaning that whenever one of the two main political parties (Labour or Conservatives) develop a proposal or project to expand the airport, it is guaranteed to be opposed by the other party.
A number of such proposals and projects have been proposed over the years, but these have all been cancelled at a later date due to a lack of national political consensus. Heathrow's inability to expand means that the airport has been operating its two runways at about 98% capacity since 2003. As a result, its status as a global hub airport has been declining in terms of the growth in passenger numbers and number of destinations served, compared to its competitor hub airports in Europe (Schiphol, Paris and Frankfurt) and in relation to the recent rapid growth of Middle Eastern airports (Istanbul, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha).
Heathrow third runway
The Labour Government's 2003 Aviation White Paper The Future of Air Transport proposed that a third runway (R3) should be built at Heathrow, albeit with restrictions on the number of additional air traffic movements at the airport. The publication of specific plans for the extra runway was delayed until 2009 because of the public inquiry into the construction of a fifth terminal. However, by this time the 2010 general election was only a year away and the then opposition Conservative Party, eager to secure a political advantage, vigorously opposed R3 and vowed to cancel the project if they won the election.
Analysis proves the outcome of the 2010 election was influenced by the rejection of Heathrow's 3rd runway. Conservatives formed a Coalition Government with the Liberal Democrats, who opposed all airport expansion, and R3 was immediately cancelled. Current research has revealed various reasons to further reduce flights at Heathrow, such as study undertaken in 2012 by MIT who presented evidence in a feasibility study on the fatal impacts of pollution across a wide spread area over London. The evidence suggests that another runway would increase fatalities by pollution 3 times the current amount.
Recent global connectivity concerns
Since 2010 there have been growing concerns that the lack of UK hub airport runway capacity is preventing the UK from establishing additional air connections to fast growing emerging economies and is harming the economy. London Mayor Boris Johnson – who strongly opposes expansion of Heathrow and was at the time widely tipped to succeed David Cameron as Conservative Party leader – and leading architect Norman Foster has proposed a landbased estuarine scheme on the Isle of Grain, as well as a consortium of professionals TESTRAD proposing a new airport in the Thames Estuary. In addition the management of Heathrow and business groups have started to campaign for additional runway capacity, whether at Heathrow or elsewhere.
Purpose of the commission
The government hoped that by establishing an independent commission it would be able to secure cross-party political consensus over the issue of how to expand London's airports. In particular it hoped that the commission's recommendations would be accepted by all political parties and as a result could be implemented by the newly elected government when the commission publishes its final report in Summer 2015.
Terms of reference and commissioners On 2 November 2012 Secretary of State for Transport Patrick McLoughlin announced in a written statement to Parliament the terms of reference for the commission and the names of six commissioners who had been appointed by the government:
Terms of reference The commission will examine the scale and timing of any requirement for additional capacity to maintain the UK's position as Europe's most important aviation hub; and it will identify and evaluate how any need for additional capacity should be met in the short, medium and long term. It should maintain a UK-wide perspective, taking appropriate account of the national, regional and local implications of any proposals. It should engage openly with interested parties and members of the public, providing opportunities to submit evidence and proposals and to set out views relevant to its work. It should seek to engage with a range of stakeholders, including with local and devolved government as well as the opposition, to build consensus in support of its approach and recommendations. The commission should report no later than the end of 2013 on: its assessment of the evidence on the nature, scale and timing of the steps needed to maintain the UK’s global hub status its recommendation(s) for immediate actions to improve the use of existing runway capacity in the next five years – consistent with credible long term options The assessments and recommendations in the commission's interim report should be underpinned by a detailed review of the evidence in relation to the current position in the UK with regard to aviation demand and connectivity, forecasts for how these are likely to develop, and the expected future pattern of the UK's requirements for international and domestic connectivity. Its assessments of potential immediate actions should take into account their economic, social and environmental costs and benefits, and their operational deliverability. It should also be informed by an initial high-level assessment of the credible long-term options which merit further detailed development. The commission should report no later than summer 2015 on: its assessment of the options for meeting the UK’s international connectivity needs, including their economic, social and environmental impact its recommendation(s) for the optimum approach to meeting any needs its recommendation(s) for ensuring that the need is met as expeditiously as practicable within the required timescale The commission should base the recommendations in its final report on a detailed consideration of the case for each of the credible options. This should include the development or examination of detailed business cases and environmental assessments for each option, as well as consideration of their operational, commercial and technical viability. As part of its final report in summer 2015, it should also provide materials, based on this detailed analysis, which will support the government in preparing a national policy statement to accelerate the resolution of any future planning applications for major airports infrastructure.
Commissioners Sir Howard Davies (chairman) Sir John Armitt – former chief executive officer (CEO) of Network Rail and Chairman of the Olympic Delivery Authority Ricky Burdett – Professor of Urban Studies at the London School of Economics and director of the LSE Cities research centre Vivienne Cox – former CEO and Executive Vice-president of BP Alternative Energy Dame Julia King – a scientist and Vice-Chancellor of Aston University Geoff Muirhead – former CEO of Manchester Airports Group (MAG). Muirhead resigned from the commission in September 2013.
Programme of work
Proposals
On 1 February 2013 the commission invited submissions for proposals to make best use of existing capacity in the short and medium term (proposals that could be implemented within five years) and to provide additional capacity in the longer term. Proponents had to confirm their intention to submit proposals by 28 February 2013. Short and medium term proposals had to be submitted to the commission by 17 May 2013. Longer term proposals, of no more than 40 pages, had to be submitted by 19 July 2013. In addition the commission requested suggestions for sifting criteria to be used in developing the Interim Report by 15 March 2013.
In May 2013 the commission published its sift criteria against which longer term capacity proposals would be assessed. The commission envisaged that a small number of preferred proposals would be short listed for further study during 2014 and 2015 in its Interim Report in December 2013. The outcome of those studies would enable the commission to recommend a preferred location for additional hub airport capacity.