A federal election was held in Germany on 22 September 2002 to elect the members of the 15th Bundestag. Incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's centre-left "red-green" governing coalition retained a narrow majority, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) retained their status as the largest party in the Bundestag by three seats.

Issues and campaign

Several issues dominated the campaign, with the opposition CDU/CSU attacking the government's performance on the economy which fell back into recession due to the Telecoms crash and the introduction of the euro, as well as campaigning on family values and against taxes (particularly on fuel).

In the run up to the election, the CSU/CDU held a huge lead in the opinion polls and Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Edmund Stoiber famously remarked that "...this election is like a football match where it's the second half and my team is ahead by 2–0."Jess Smee (17 January 2007), Stoiber quits after snooping row The Guardian.

However, events soon overtook Stoiber and the CDU/CSU campaign. The SPD and the Greens were helped by broad support for its opposition to an invasion of Iraq, continued media attention on the CDU funding scandal and by Gerhard Schröder's personal popularity relative to the opposition's candidate for chancellor, Stoiber.

The SPD was also boosted by Schröder's swift response to the August floods in eastern Germany, as compared to Stoiber, who was on vacation and responded late to the events.

With Guido Westerwelle, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the FDP presented a chancellor candidate for the first time, usually a title reserved for the main election leaders of the SPD and CDU/CSU. This was met with general derision and Westerwelle was excluded from the chancellor television debate, the first one, against which he unsuccessfully sued.

Contesting parties The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Bundestag: NameIdeologyLead candidate1998 resultParty-list votes (%)SeatsSPDSocial Democratic Party of GermanySocial democracyGerhard Schröder40.9%CDU/CSUCDUChristian democracyEdmund Stoiber28.4%CSUChristian Social Union in Bavaria6.7%GrüneAlliance 90/The GreensGreen politicsJoschka Fischer6.7%FDPFree Democratic PartyClassical liberalismGuido Westerwelle6.2%PDSParty of Democratic SocialismSocialismGabi Zimmer5.1%

Opinion polls

After a brief honeymoon period, the CDU/CSU overtook the SPD in opinion polling in early 1999. This dramatically reversed after the CDU donations scandal, and the SPD established a strong lead which it held throughout 2000 and 2001. The CDU/CSU retook first place at the beginning of election year, and combined with a strong FDP, the opposition held a clear lead over the SPD–Green incumbents through mid-August. Schröder's response to the floods that month buoyed the SPD's numbers, and put the CDU/CSU, FDP, and PDS on a downward trend. Polling during the final week of the campaign gave a narrow edge of the SPD, but also indicated the FDP would finish ahead of the Greens. Meanwhile, it was unclear if the PDS would win proportional seats, leaving the final outcome on a knife's edge.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize SPD Union Grüne FDP PDS Others Lead 2005 federal election 22 Sep 2002 – 38.5 38.5 8.6 7.4 4.0 3.0 0.01 Forsa 20 Sep 2002 2,021 38.5–39.5 37.0–38.0 6.5–7.5 7.0–8.0 4.0–4.5 0.5–2.5 Allensbach 20 Sep 2002 37.5 37.0 7.5 9.5 4.5 4.0 0.5 Allensbach 6–15 Sep 2002 ~2,000 37.0 37.3 7.2 10.1 4.4 4.0 0.3 Emnid 14 Sep 2002 3,518 39 37 7 8 5 4 2 Forsa 9–14 Sep 2002 3,006 40 38 7 8 4 3 2 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 9–12 Sep 2002 1,326 40.0 37.0 7.0 7.5 4.5 4.0 3.0 Infratest dimap 9–12 Sep 2002 2,000 38.5 36.0 8.0 8.5 4.7 4.3 2.5

Results Although most opposition parties gained seats, and the result was in doubt for most of the election night, the governing coalition retained a narrow majority. In particular, the SPD was able to partially offset declines in their vote share in the West with an increase in the East, with the PDS falling below both the 5% threshold and the 3-seat threshold, either of which is required to qualify a party for top-up seats. Consequently, the PDS held only two directly elected seats.

Results by state Second vote (Zweitstimme, or votes for party list)

State results in % SPD CDU/CSU GRÜNE FDP PDS all others 33.5 42.8 11.4 7.8 1.0 3.5 26.1 58.6 7.6 4.5 0.7 2.5 36.6 25.9 14.6 6.6 11.4 4.9 46.4 22.3 4.5 5.8 17.2 3.8 48.6 24.6 15.0 6.7 2.2 2.9 42.0 28.1 16.2 6.8 2.1 4.8 39.7 37.1 10.7 8.2 1.3 3.0 41.7 30.3 3.5 5.4 16.3 2.8 47.8 34.5 7.3 7.1 1.0 2.3 43.0 35.1 8.9 9.4 1.2 2.4 38.2 40.3 7.9 9.3 1.0 3.3 46.0 35.0 7.6 6.4 1.4 3.6 33.3 33.6 4.6 7.3 16.2 4.9 43.2 29.0 3.4 7.6 14.4 2.4 42.9 36.0 9.4 8.0 1.3 2.4 39.9 29.4 4.3 5.9 17.0 3.5

Constituency seats StateTotalseatsSeats wonSPDCDUCSUPDSGrüneBaden-Württemberg37730Bavaria44143Berlin12921Brandenburg1010Bremen22Hamburg66Hesse21174Lower Saxony29254Mecklenburg-Vorpommern752North Rhine-Westphalia644519Rhineland-Palatinate1578Saarland44Saxony17413Saxony-Anhalt1010Schleswig-Holstein11101Thuringia1091Total299171824321

List seats StateTotalseatsSeats wonCDUSPDGrüneFDPCSUBaden-Württemberg3942096Bavaria51257415Berlin11632Brandenburg6411Bremen211Hamburg7421Hesse2313154Lower Saxony3418655Mecklenburg-Vorpommern321North Rhine-Westphalia7030151213Rhineland-Palatinate155523Saarland5311Saxony12822Saxony-Anhalt8611Schleswig-Holstein11722Thuringia7511Total30410880544715

Post-election The coalition between the SPD and the Greens continued in government, with Schröder as chancellor. However, due to the slim majority in the Bundestag, the governing coalition was not stable.

Notes

References

Further reading

Sources The Federal Returning Officer Psephos

External links