2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm elections, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992. Johnson's victory was considered an upset as most polling had Feingold in the lead, coinciding with Donald Trump's own surprise victory in the state's presidential contest. Feingold managed to win six counties that Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race: Columbia, Crawford, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk and Vernon.

Background In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 and was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.

In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded. Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again." On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat. Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state. Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability. A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.

Republican primary

Candidates Declared Ron Johnson, incumbent U.S. Senator

Democratic primary Candidates Declared Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa Scott Harbach, perennial candidate

Declined Mary Burke, businesswoman, member of the Madison school district board, former Wisconsin Secretary of Commerce and nominee for Governor of Wisconsin in 2014 Chris Larson, state senator Ron Kind, U.S. Representative Gwen Moore, U.S. Representative Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative

Results

Libertarian primary Candidates Declared Phil Anderson, chair of the Dane County, Wisconsin Libertarian Party and nominee for the State Assembly in 2014

General election Candidates Ron Johnson (R), incumbent U.S. Senator Russ Feingold (D), former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa Phil Anderson (L), chair of the Dane County, Wisconsin Libertarian Party and nominee for the State Assembly in 2014

Debates Dates Location Johnson Feingold LinkOctober 14, 2016Green Bay, WisconsinParticipantParticipantFull debate - C-SPANOctober 18, 2016Milwaukee, WisconsinParticipantParticipantFull debateFull debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 2, 2016 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2016 Daily Kos November 8, 2016 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2016

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RonJohnson (R) RussFeingold (D) PhilAnderson (L) Other /Neither UndecidedSurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,246 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,943 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 1,568 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%Clarity Campaign LabsClarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 2016 1,129 ± 2.9% 46% 49% — — 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 1,271 ± 4.6% 48% 48% — — 4%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 31–November 1, 2016 891 ± 3.3% 44% 49% — — 7%Loras College October 31–November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% — 6%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 1,103 ± 4.6% 50% 48% — — 2%Marquette UniversityMarquette University October 26–31, 2016 1,190 LV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 3% 2% 3% 1,401 RV ± 3.3% 42% 43% 5% 3% 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,195 ± 4.6% 49% 49% — — 2%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 27–28, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 44% 49% — 4% 3%Let America WorkLet America Work^ October 18–20, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 48% 2% — 4%Club for GrowthClub for Growth^ October 18–20, 2016 400 ± 4.2% 42% 45% — — 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 18–19, 2016 804 ± 3.5% 41% 47% — — 12%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University October 15–18, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 44% 52% 2% — 2%Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert CollegeWisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College October 13–16, 2016 664 ± 3.8% 40% 52% 0% 3% 5%Washington Post/SurveyMonkeyWashington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,076 ± 0.5% 46% 51% — — 3%Google Consumer SurveysGoogle Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 551 ± 4.2% 39% 58% — — 3%Marquette UniversityMarquette University October 6–9, 2016 839 LV ± 3.9% 44% 46% 4% 1% 4% 46% 48% — 1% 4% 1,000 RV ± 3.7% 42% 44% 6% 1% 6% 44% 47% — 2% 5%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 993 ± 4.3% 42% 45% — — 13%Loras College October 4–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% — 3% 9%Breitbart/Gravis MarketingBreitbart/Gravis Marketing October 4, 2016 1,102 ± 3.0% 41% 53% — — 6%Emerson CollegeEmerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 42% 52% — 3% 4%Marquette UniversityMarquette University September 15–18, 2016 642 LV ± 4.8% 39% 44% 7% — 10% 41% 47% — — 8% 802 RV ± 4.4% 37% 44% 8% — 10% 40% 46% — — 11%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University August 27–30, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 41% 54% 2% — 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 42% 49% — — 9%Marquette University August 25–28, 2016 650 LV ± 5.0% 42% 45% 6% — 7% 45% 48% — — 7% 803 RV ± 4.5% 38% 42% 8% — 12% 42% 46% — — 12%Global Strategy GroupGlobal Strategy Group August 25, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 55% — — 8%Let America WorkLet America Work^ August 21–22, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 50% — — 3%Marquette UniversityMarquette University August 4–7, 2016 683 LV ± 5.0% 39% 50% 7% — 4% 42% 53% — — 6% 805 RV ± 4.5% 38% 47% 7% — 8% 43% 49% — — 8%Let America Work^ July 30–August 1, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 50% — — 6%Global Strategy Group July 20, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 41% 52% — — 7%Marquette UniversityMarquette University July 7–10, 2016 665 LV ± 4.5% 40% 46% 7% — 7% 44% 49% — — 7% 801 RV ± 4.1% 38% 45% 8% — 9% 41% 48% — — 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 843 ± 3.4% 37% 50% — — 13%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy CorpsGreenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 45% 46% — — 9%Marquette UniversityMarquette University June 9–12, 2016 666 LV ± 4.9% 42% 51% — — 7% 800 RV ± 4.4% 41% 45% — — 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 853 ± 3.4% 41% 51% — — 8%Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert CollegeWisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College April 12–15, 2016 616 ± 4.0% 41% 51% — — 6%Emerson CollegeEmerson College March 30–April 3, 2016 1,198 ± 2.8% 44% 48% — 8% —Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 28–29, 2016 1,397 ± 2.6% 39% 46% — — 15%Loras CollegeLoras College March 28–29, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 48% — 1% 12%Marquette UniversityMarquette University March 24–28, 2016 957 LV ± 4.1% 45% 48% — — 7% 1,405 RV ± 3.3% 42% 47% — — 11%Marquette UniversityMarquette University February 18–21, 2016 802 RV ± 4.5% 37% 49% — — 14%Marquette UniversityMarquette University January 21–24, 2016 806 RV ± 4.0% 37% 50% — — 13%Let America WorkLet America Work ^ November 16–18, 2015 900 ± 3.3% 44% 45% — — 11%Marquette UniversityMarquette University November 12–15, 2015 803 RV ± 4.2% 38% 49% — — 13%Democracy CorpsDemocracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 46% 51% — — 3%Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College October 14–17, 2015 603 ± 4.0% 40% 51% — 2% 7%Marquette UniversityMarquette University September 24–28, 2015 803 RV ± 4.1% 36% 50% — 7% 7%End Citizens UnitedEnd Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 775 ± 3.6% 39% 47% — — 14%Marquette UniversityMarquette University August 13–16, 2015 802 RV ± 3.5% 42% 47% — — 12%Marquette UniversityMarquette University April 7–10, 2015 803 RV ± 3.5% 38% 54% — — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 41% 50% — — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 47% — — 12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 42% 49% — — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013 807 ± 2.3% 42% 52% — — 6%

^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.

with Mary Burke Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RonJohnson (R) MaryBurke (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Mark Pocan Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RonJohnson (R) MarkPocan (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 43% 36% 20%

with Gwen Moore Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RonJohnson (R) GwenMoore (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 45% 37% — 18%

with Ron Kind Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RonJohnson (R) RonKind (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 43% 37% — 20%Public Policy Polling April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 39% — 20%Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% 40% — 17%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Columbia (largest municipality: Portage) Lafayette (largest municipality: Darlington) Richland (largest municipality: Richland Center)

By congressional district Johnson won six of eight congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. District Johnson Feingold Representative 56% 41%Paul Ryan 30% 67%Mark Pocan 49% 47%Ron Kind 26% 71%Gwen Moore 63% 35%Jim Sensenbrenner 58% 38%Glenn Grothman 57% 40%Sean Duffy59%38%Reid RibbleMike Gallagher

Notes

References

Further reading

External links Official campaign websites (Archived) Ron Johnson (R) for Senate Russ Feingold (D) for Senate Phil Anderson (L) for Senate