General elections were held in Turkey on 7 June 2015 to elect 550 members to the Grand National Assembly. This was the 24th general election in the history of the Turkish Republic, electing the country's 25th Parliament. The result was the first hung parliament since the 1999 general elections. Unsuccessful attempts to form a coalition government resulted in a snap general election being called for November 2015.
The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had governed Turkey since 2002, lost its parliamentary majority and won 258 seats with 40.9% of the vote, clearly missing the aimed two-thirds majority for the implementation of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's call for an executive presidency. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) also fared worse than their 2011 result, and won 132 seats with 25.0% of the vote. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) had been projected to win over many disaffected voters from the AKP. Its share of the vote increased, and the party won 80 seats with 16.3% of the vote. The new Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) decided to contest the election as a party rather than fielding candidates as independents, despite concerns that it could have fallen below the 10% election threshold and lose all representation in Parliament. The party fared better than expectations, which was a key factor for denying the AKP another absolute majority: it won 13.1% of the vote and took 80 seats, the same as the MHP. The potential for a hung parliament had been widely considered and predicted before the election so the country and politicians were better prepared for the constitutional process that would follow such a result.
Campaigning before the election focused mainly on a faltering economy, the political conflict between the government and the Gülen Movement, and Turkey's involvement in the Syrian Civil War. Growing allegations of government corruption and authoritarianism, mainly originating from the 2013 corruption scandal and the 2013 Gezi Park protests respectively, were also part of the issues raised during the election campaign.
Electoral fraud claims and political violence caused controversy in the run-up to the election. Several candidates and party offices were subject to politically motivated attacks, culminating in the death of four HDP supporters after two bombs exploded during a rally in Diyarbakır on 5 June. The interference of President Erdoğan, who was accused of covertly campaigning for the AKP under the guise of 'public opening' rallies, was also controversial since the president of Turkey was constitutionally required to exercise political neutrality. Despite fraud claims dating back to the hugely controversial 2014 local elections and numerous claims of misconduct on polling day, the election was largely praised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe for being well-organised and was declared free and fair by the European Parliament.
Background The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) sought a fourth consecutive term in government. Its leader, Ahmet Davutoğlu, who had taken over from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in August 2014, sought a full term as Prime Minister of Turkey in his own right. The AKP's goal was to win more than 330 seats in order to have the right to put constitutional changes to a referendum, or more ideally 367 seats to bypass a referendum and change the constitution directly within parliament.
The Republican People's Party (CHP) aimed to surpass the 30% boundary and to form a government, potentially with the help of smaller parties or in its own right. The CHP's leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had publicly stated that his party would target 35% of the vote, a rise of 9% from its 2011 result, in order to be able to form the next government. Popular support for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) had surged during the 2014 local elections, and it aimed to participate in a coalition government. However, several politicians from the CHP and MHP resigned in protest against their unrealistic electoral prospects, and formed their own parties. The most prominent break-away party was the Anatolia Party formed by former CHP MP Emine Ülker Tarhan in November 2014. Other significant factors that opposition parties would also need to overcome were issues such as media bias and electoral fraud, both of which increased sharply in the preceding local and presidential elections.
Electoral cycle
This election is the last election - presidential, local and general - scheduled in Turkey until 2019. Arguments as to whether this is by chance, or whether it was planned by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government when they proposed to reduce the parliamentary terms from five years to four in the 2007 constitutional referendum, are still ongoing.Aykut Erdemir, December 2014, King's College London, lecture Speculation as to what the AKP government will do during four years of electorally unchecked power should they win generated both favourable predictions and concerns. While four years without elections may allow the government to undertake widespread necessary economic reforms, critics of the AKP argue that it is an opportunity to further erode the diminishing checks and balances and separation of powers in the Turkish political and legal systems. The AKP also support a presidential system, which would give greater powers to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Early elections
The AKP government had allegedly proposed to hold an early general election in November 2014 if their candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the 2014 presidential election, especially due to opinion polls predicting a comfortable victory for Erdoğan in the first round. This would allow the AKP's new leader to seek an electoral mandate in their own right rather than serving the remainder of Erdoğan's term before seeking re-election. Although Erdoğan did win outright with 51.79% of the vote, his popular vote share was significantly below what opinion polls predicted. The presidential election results, according to several political commentators and journalists, greatly reduced the possibility of holding an early election, although some reports claimed that the government were preparing for an early election in April 2015. In October 2014, the AKP parliamentary group leader Naci Bostancı ruled out any prospect of holding the election early and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu stated in November that they would be held in June as per normal. Despite this, speculation in December 2014 as to whether the election would be brought forward in order not to clash with summer examinations remained. In the end, no such initiative was taken and Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK) went on with the date 7 June. Some schools changed the times of examinations in order to not clash with polling day.
The AKP were widely expected to target at least 330 seats in parliament in order to pursue constitutional reforms. In the 2014 local elections, the AKP won 42.87% of the vote, which would have translated into 285–300 seats had it been a general election. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) would have won 130–145 seats, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would have won 75–85 and Kurdish nationalist independent candidates would win between 30 and 45 seats. Even if the AKP had sought backing from independent Kurdish candidates as part of the ongoing solution process with Kurdish PKK rebels, it was still unlikely that they would have held a sufficient number of seats to put constitutional changes to a referendum. As a result, the prospect for an early general election on political grounds diminished.
Issues and developments
The main issues that formed the agenda during the run-up to the election included the Solution process with Kurdish separatist rebels, the political conflict with the Gülen Movement in the Turkish political and legal system, an economic slowdown as well as the growing political polarisation in Turkish politics. The murder of Özgecan Aslan and the 2014 Soma mine disaster also raised the issues of women's and workers' rights respectively, while calls for minority rights for Turkey's Kurdish and Alevi minorities were also made by the opposition. In the run-up to the election, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also held controversial rallies, during which he openly called for a presidential system of government. The prospect of a presidential system, as opposed to the current parliamentary system, also dominated the agenda before the election, as well as Erdoğan's influence in the political system despite being required to remain neutral by the Constitution. The 2015 general election was the first general election to be held after the anti-government Gezi Park protests in 2013 and also the first since the 2013 government corruption scandal in which many AKP politicians, including Erdoğan, had been incriminated. The AKP's foreign policy, the ongoing Syrian Civil War and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant were also key issues. In late 2014, ISIL's siege of the predominantly Kurdish city of Kobanî in Syria caused deadly riots in south-eastern Turkey, with many Kurdish citizens protesting the inaction of the Turkish government. This resulted in the government passing a controversial 'Domestic Security' bill that gave significant powers to the police forces, with many opposition politicians and the European Union accusing the AKP of placing Turkey under 'martial law' and turning the country into a police state. Turkey's declining human rights record, growing censorship and the authoritarianism of the AKP government also therefore dominated the agenda and the opposition parties' campaigns. Revelations confirming that National Intelligence Organisation (MİT) lorries that were sent to Syria in January 2014 were in fact carrying weapons also resulted in accusations of high treason and war crimes being made against the AKP government.
Electoral system
Turkey was to elect 550 Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly using the D'Hondt method, a party-list proportional representation system. In order to return MPs to parliament, a party needed to gain more than 10% of the vote nationwide, meaning that parties may win the most votes in certain areas but not win any MPs due to a low result overall. The parliamentary threshold of 10% had been subject to intense scrutiny by opposition members, since all votes cast for parties polling under 10% are spoilt and allow the parties overcoming the national threshold to win seats much more easily, e.g. in the 2002 general election where the AKP won with 34.28% of the vote but won nearly two-thirds of the seats.
The parliamentary threshold does not apply to independents, which is why Kurdish nationalist politicians who poll strongly in the south-east but are not able to win 10% of the overall vote stood as independents rather than as party candidates. This was the case in the 2007 and 2011 general election, where the Kurdish Democratic Society Party and the Peace and Democracy Party fielded independent candidates respectively.
Electoral districts
Turkey was split into 85 electoral districts at the time, which elect a certain number of Members to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The Assembly had a total of 550 seats, which each electoral district allocated a certain number of MPs in proportion to their population. The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey conducts population reviews of each district before the election and can increase or decrease a district's number of seats according to their electorate.