A regional election was held in Extremadura on 24 May 2015 to elect the 9th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.; ( by ). The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 28 April 2015, setting the latest possible date for election day on 21 June 2015.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called..

The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially called on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOE, setting election day for 24 May..

Electoral system Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ). Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting ()..

The Assembly of Extremadura had a maximum of 65 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in two multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 distributed in proportion to population—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both constituencies and reached five percent regionally.; .

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:.

Seats Constituencies 36 Badajoz 29 Cáceres

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

+ Parliamentary composition in March 2015 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's–United Extremadura Parliamentary Group PP 31 32 EU 1 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 28 28 United Left–Greens Parliamentary Group IU 3 3 Mixed Parliamentary Group PREx–CREx 2 2

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP José Antonio Monago ConservatismChristian democracy 46.1% PSOE–SIEx Guillermo Fernández Vara Social democracy 43.4% Ganemos–IU–LV Pedro Escobar SocialismCommunism 5.7% UPyD José Francisco Sigüenza Social liberalismRadical centrism 1.1% C's Victoria Domínguez Liberalism 0.3% eX Estanislao Martín RegionalismSocial democracy colspan="2" EU José María Gijón RegionalismConservatism colspan="2" Podemos Álvaro Jaén Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism colspan="2"

United Extremadura (EU) broke its electoral alliance with the People's Party (PP) in July 2014, arguing that it had received an offer from the PP that "undervalued them as a party" by not offering them the removal of the 5% electoral threshold, "nor relevant positions".

Campaign Debates + 2015 Extremaduran regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PP PSOE G–IU–LV eX EU UPyD C's Podemos Vox AEx PACMA BA Audience 18 May Canal Extremadura Víctor Molino —

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout eX Lead 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 71.4 37.0 41.5 4.2 0.6 1.5 8.0 4.4 4.5 GAD3/Antena 3 11–22 May 2015????? – –??? NC Report/La Razón 17 May 2015 500? 35.7 37.6 4.0 0.8 – 10.1 9.5 1.9 PP 4–8 May 2015 3,500? 41.1 30.3 4.1 1.0 – 10.0 10.6 10.8 Enquest/El Periódico 28–30 Apr 2015? 75.5 41.0 30.7 4.2 0.7 0.6 12.1 9.9 10.3 GAD3/ABC 22–24 Apr 2015 501? 37.9 33.9 3.8 1.1 – 8.3 10.5 4.0 Metroscopia/El País 21–22 Apr 2015 1,000? 37.4 31.8 5.4 – – 13.0 10.5 5.6 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,199? 34.6 38.9 4.1 0.7 – 11.6 6.9 4.3 Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días 30 Mar–15 Apr 2015 14,073 79.1 33.3 34.8 4.3 3.9 2.1 10.7 8.1 1.5 PSOE 9 Apr 2015???? – – –??? NC Report/La Razón 25 Mar–9 Apr 2015 500? 36.2 38.2 4.1 0.9 – 9.1 9.2 2.0 Sigma Dos/Canal Extremadura 24–27 Feb 2015 1,300? 43.8 29.2 4.4 – – 13.4 4.4 14.6 Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días 9–20 Feb 2015 1,067? 32.6 33.4 5.1 7.6 2.1 12.7 3.2 0.8 PP 31 Jan 2015????? – –? –? Sigma Dos/Hoy 8–12 Jan 2015 800? 43.0 33.3 5.8 – – 12.4 – 9.7 Llorente & Cuenca 31 Oct 2014?????? –? –? Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días 21 Oct 2014 376? 33.0 35.0 4.5 7.5 – 9.5 – 2.0 Sigma Dos/Hoy 16–20 Oct 2014 800? 39.7 38.2 3.6 – – 13.5 – 1.5 2014 EP election 25 May 2014 44.1 35.6 38.7 6.3 5.5 0.5 4.8 1.0 3.1 Sigma Dos/Hoy 23–27 Jan 2014 800? 44.3 38.9 9.5 3.6 – – – 5.4 NC Report/La Razón 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013????? – – – –? NC Report/La Razón 15 Apr–10 May 2013 250? 39.1 43.2? – – – 4.1 Sigma Dos/Hoy 29 Apr–3 May 2013 800? 45.1 39.1 8.5 2.7 – – 6.0 2011 general election 20 Nov 2011 73.9 51.2 37.2 5.7 3.5 – – 14.0 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 74.7 46.1 43.4 5.7 1.1 – – 2.7

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 26.7 29.9 3.1 0.4 5.8 3.1 26.6 3.2 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,199 21.2 26.4 2.7 0.4 9.6 4.8 25.7 6.6 5.2 2014 EP election 25 May 2014 15.7 17.1 2.8 2.4 2.1 0.4 54.8 1.4 2011 general election 20 Nov 2011 38.2 27.7 4.2 2.6 – – 24.4 10.5 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 34.7 32.7 4.2 0.8 – – 23.8 2.0

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,199 25.4 34.4 3.2 0.8 11.0 5.5 4.7 14.9 9.0

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,199 44.8 24.8 1.3 1.1 28.0 20.0

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead GAD3/ABC 22–24 Apr 2015 501 29.2 18.5 1.6 0.3 3.5 5.2 21.0 20.7 10.7 CIS 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 1,199 29.1 34.4 4.1 0.8 7.9 3.8 0.2 19.8 4.3

Results Overall + ← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Assembly of Extremadura election results → Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats Votes % ±pp Total +/− Spanish Socialist Workers' Party–Independent Socialists (PSOE–SIEx) 265,015 41.50 −1.95 30 ±0 People's Party (PP) 236,266 37.00 −9.13 28 −4 We Can (Podemos) 51,216 8.02 New 6 +6 Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 28,010 4.39 +4.06 1 +1 Let's Win Extremadura–United Left–The Greens (Ganemos–IU–LV) 27,122 4.25 −1.47 0 −3 Extremadurans (eXtremeños)2 9,305 1.46 +1.30 0 ±0 Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 3,947 0.62 −0.44 0 ±0 United Extremadura (EU) 3,127 0.49 New 0 ±0 Vox (Vox) 1,786 0.28 New 0 ±0 Forward Extremadura (AEx)3 1,538 0.24 ±0.00 0 ±0 Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 1,502 0.24 New 0 ±0 Forward Badajoz (BA) 1,245 0.19 New 0 ±0 Blank ballots 8,561 1.34 −0.07 Total 638,640 65 ±0 Valid votes 638,640 98.14 −0.51 Invalid votes 12,134 1.86 +0.51 Votes cast / turnout 650,774 71.40 −3.25 Abstentions 260,659 28.60 +3.25 Registered voters 911,433 Sources

Distribution by constituency Constituency PSOE PP Podemos C's % S % S % S % S Badajoz 43.7 18 36.3 15 7.3 3 3.9 − Cáceres 38.0 12 38.2 13 9.2 3 5.1 1 Total 41.5 30 37.0 28 8.0 6 4.4 1 Sources

Aftermath Government formation Investiture Ballot → 1 July 2015 Required majority → 33 out of 65 No Absentees Sources

Notes

References Opinion poll sources

Other

Bibliography