2014 Saxony state election

The 2014 Saxony state election was held on 31 August 2014 to elect the members of the 6th Landtag of Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich was defeated as the FDP lost all its seats. The CDU subsequently formed a grand coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and Tillich was re-elected as Minister-President.

Background After the 2009 state election, held a month before the 2009 federal election, the CDU–SPD grand coalition left office and was replaced by a CDU-led coalition with the FDP. The FDP suffered a major decline in support nationally after 2009, culminating in their ejection from the Bundestag in the 2013 federal election. Thus, in the lead-up to the 2014 state election, the Saxony state government was the only government nationwide that included the FDP. It seemed unlikely this coalition could continue after the election, as polling indicated the FDP may not even pass the 5% threshold to enter the Landtag.

The largest opposition party was The Left. Polling indicated that a coalition between The Left, the SPD and The Greens may have been able to secure a majority, but this option was rejected by both the SPD and the Greens prior to the election.

For the SPD, the state election in Saxony was their second electoral test (after the European elections) since becoming the junior partner in the federal grand coalition. Polls suggested that the public viewed the SPD's role in government as positive; issues that had been worked on by the government were primarily election promises of the SPD. Despite this, all polls showed that the SPD was headed for another third-place finish in the state election. The SPD's election campaign was centred on their lead candidate, Martin Dulig, who involved his family in the campaign. Dulig was also supported by former federal Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was hoping to win seats in a state parliament for the first time. In both the 2013 federal election and the 2014 European elections, AfD had achieved its strongest results in Saxony (6.8% in the federal election and 10.1% in the European elections).

The National Democratic Party (NPD) had won seats in Saxony in 2004 and retained them, with losses, in 2009. Polling and election results for the NPD had trended downwards since then, with most polls suggesting the party would not cross the 5% threshold and would thus lose their representation.

The Pirate Party won 1.9% of the vote in the previous state election. Despite polling in late 2011 and 2012 showing its support up to as much as 9% in Saxony, the party lost most of its popularity throughout 2013, and the party had averaged around 2% in Saxony since the end of the year.

Pre-election coalition talks Polls suggested that the CDU would again be the largest party. Minister-President Tillich was therefore expected to lead coalition negotiations. In addition to the SPD, the Greens hoped for a coalition with the CDU, but a "black-green" coalition was considered unlikely because the Greens oppose coal mining in Saxony.

Prior to the election, Tillich was open to coalitions with the FDP, the SPD, the Greens or AfD. Carsten Linnemann, the chairman of the CDU/CSU Business Association, stated that a coalition with the Greens was a viable alternative if the FDP did not obtain any seats. Tillich did not rule out a coalition with AfD, though CDU general-secretary Peter Tauber spoke out against the possibility.

The Left was unlikely to overtake the CDU, according to polls. The party wanted to form a coalition with the SPD in particular. The SPD, however, were sceptical about such an arrangement.

The NPD was not considered in coalition discussions.

Parties The table below lists parties represented in the 5th Landtag of Saxony. Name Ideology Leader(s) 2009 result Votes (%) Seats CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Stanislaw Tillich 40.2% Linke The Left Democratic socialism Rico Gebhardt 20.6% SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Martin Dulig 10.4% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Holger Zastrow 10.0% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Antje HermenauVolkmar Zschocke 6.4% NPD National Democratic Party Neo-Nazism Holger Szymanski 5.6%

Opinion polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU Linke SPD FDP Grüne NPD Piraten AfD Others Lead 2014 state election 31 Aug 2014 – 39.4 18.9 12.4 3.8 5.7 4.9 1.1 9.7 4.1 20.5 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 27–28 Aug 2014 1,013 40.5 19 15 3 5.5 5 – 7 5 21.5 Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2014 1,002 40 19 14 3.5 6.5 5 – 7 5 21 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18–20 Aug 2014 1,072 39 20 15 3 6 5 – 7 5 19 uniQma 6–10 Aug 2014 800 42 18 13 3 6 4 1 6 7 24 IM Field Aug 2014 1,003 43 20 14 3 7 3 – 5 5 23 INSA 23 Jul–1 Aug 2014 500 40 19 14 5 6 4 – 6 6 21 Infratest dimap 3–7 Jul 2014 1,000 42 21 13 4 7 3 – 7 3 21 Forsa 15 May–10 Jun 2014 1,002 42 18 15 3 6 3 – 8 5 24 uniQma 2–6 Jun 2014 800 45 16 13 3 6 3 2 7 5 29 Infratest dimap 24–28 Apr 2014 1,000 43 18 16 4 6 4 – 6 3 25 dimap 24 Feb–11 Mar 2014 2,001 45 17 15 4 6 4 – 6 ? 28 INSA 26 Feb–3 Mar 2014 1,003 43 22 15 2 5 1 – 7 5 21 uniQma 11–14 Dec 2013 800 49 15 17 2 6 1 2 6 2 32 Infratest dimap 9–15 Aug 2013 1,000 45 14 14 5 11 3 3 – 3 31 Emnid 1 Feb–6 Mar 2013 1,025 43 19 16 5 7 4 4 – 2 24 dimap 10–24 Aug 2012 2,002 44 15 16 5 8 2 4 – 6 28 Infratest 27 Jun–1 Jul 2012 1,000 41 19 16 4 7 3 7 – 3 22 Emnid 16 Jan–12 Feb 2012 1,040 43 18 14 2 10 2 9 – 1 25 IfM Leipzig 4–7 Oct 2011 1,001 44 17 12 2 11 3 8 – ? 27 dimap 4–17 Jul 2011 2,003 43 19 12 6 11 5 – – 4 24 aproxima 4 Apr–29 May 2011 1,000 42 21 15 6 8 3 – – 3 21 aproxima 9 Apr–9 Jul 2010 1,000 42 23 16 5 7 4 – – 3 19 IfM Leipzig 9–10 Jun 2010 802 40 20 16 6 12 3 – – 3 20 2009 state election 30 Aug 2009 – 40.2 20.6 10.4 10.0 6.4 5.6 1.9 – 4.9 19.6

Election result

Government formation Due to the ejection of the FDP from the Landtag, the CDU was forced to seek new coalition partners. Minister-President Tillich ruled out a coalition with AfD.

The CDU held exploratory talks with the Greens and the SPD. Talks with the Greens were inconclusive; the Greens claimed that education policy and energy policy were the sticking points. Antje Hermenau, the Greens' lead candidate, then resigned on 20 September.

Coalition talks began on 19 September between the CDU and the SPD. On 9 November 2014, the SPD announced that 82.2% of its members had voted in favour of the coalition agreement between the CDU and SPD.

References

2014 Saxony state election

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