The 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Vermont, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Peter Shumlin ran for reelection to a third term in office against Republican businessman Scott Milne, Libertarian businessman Dan Feliciano and several other minor party and independent candidates.
Based on election polling, Shumlin's large financial advantage and the state's strong Democratic lean in presidential elections, Shumlin was expected to win easily, but he received only a plurality, not a majority, of the vote and polled only 2,434 votes more than Milne out of 193,087 cast. The Constitution of Vermont requires that the 180-member Vermont General Assembly choose the winner when no candidate receives over 50% of the popular vote. As a result, on January 8, 2015, the Assembly chose Shumlin over Milne by a vote of 110 to 69, with one abstention.
The result of the election prompted much debate and analysis amongst commentators and the political parties. The 2014 U.S. elections saw Republicans make sweeping gains in federal, state, and local offices across the country, and Republicans won gubernatorial victories in the Democratic-leaning Northeastern states of Maryland and Massachusetts. With a margin of 1.3%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2014 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Florida. , this was also the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Vermont.
Background Four-term Republican governor Jim Douglas did not run for reelection in 2010. In the race to succeed him, Democratic nominee Peter Shumlin, the president pro tempore of the Vermont Senate, received 49.5% of the vote while Republican nominee Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie received 47.7%. As neither candidate received a majority, the General Assembly was required to pick the winner in January 2011. Dubie did not contest the vote; he conceded the race on election night and called for Vermont to "unite" around Shumlin. Shumlin won the Assembly vote 145 to 28, with seven legislators not voting.Vermont General Assembly, Journal of the Joint Assembly, January 6, 2011, page 5
Shumlin was reelected in 2012 against Republican state senator and former Vermont Auditor of Accounts Randy Brock by a landslide, 57.8% to 37.6%. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years. An incumbent governor of Vermont had not been defeated for reelection since 1962, when Democrat Philip H. Hoff beat Republican F. Ray Keyser, Jr. by 1,315 votes.
Democratic primary Shumlin announced in December 2013 that he was running for reelection to a third term in office, but said that he would not begin campaigning until after Labor Day 2014, just two months before the election. He faced one opponent in the Democratic primary on August 26: lifelong Republican and Washington, D.C. resident H. Brooke Paige, who simultaneously ran against Democratic incumbent William Sorrell in the Democratic primary election for Vermont attorney general. Paige was also unsuccessful in that effort, losing by 80% to 20%.
Candidates Nominee Peter Shumlin, incumbent governor
Eliminated in primary H. Brooke Paige, former CEO of Remington News Service and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (also ran for attorney general)
Results
Republican primary The Republicans initially struggled to recruit a candidate. Former governor Douglas and Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott announced early on that they would not run, and it was not until March 2014 that a candidate entered the race: marijuana legalization activist and former Independent gubernatorial candidate Emily Peyton. This spurred Republicans to recruit a serious candidate, but they struggled to do so. Former Wall Street banker Bruce Lisman announced in May 2014 that he was not running, and attention turned to former state senator and 2012 nominee Randy Brock, State Representative Heidi Scheuermann and businessman Scott Milne.
In May, Scheuermann said that she would not run, leaving the party with a month until the June 12 filing deadline to find a candidate. Milne, who was traveling in Africa, announced that he would decide shortly before the deadline. Brock was urged to run and considered doing so, but revealed on June 8 that he would not. On the morning of filing deadline day, Milne announced that he would run. He was joined in the Republican primary by Peyton and retired marketer and self-described "modern-day Mark Twain" Steve Berry. Also running but not appearing on the ballot was Dan Feliciano, who ran as a write-in candidate for the Republican nomination and was uncontested for the Libertarian nomination. In the August 26 primary, Milne was nominated with over 70% of the vote.
Candidates Nominee Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the state house in 2006 and son of former state legislators Don and Marion Milne
Eliminated in primary Steve Berry, retired marketer Dan Feliciano, businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2010 (write-in; also ran as a Libertarian) Emily Peyton, independent candidate for governor in 2010 and 2012 (also ran as an Independent)
Declined Randy Brock, former state senator, former Vermont Auditor of Accounts and nominee for governor in 2012 Jim Douglas, former governor Bruce Lisman, banker Heidi Scheuermann, state representative Phil Scott, lieutenant governor of Vermont (ran for re-election)
Results
Progressive primary Satisfied with his support for single-payer health care and his efforts to close Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant, the Vermont Progressive Party had not run a candidate against Shumlin in 2010 or 2012. Its members discussed challenging him in 2014 because of his proposed cuts to social programs, but the party openly admitted that it lacked the money for a gubernatorial campaign, and no candidate came forward to run.
Candidates Declined Martha Abbott, former party chair Emma Mulvaney-Stanak, party chair and former Burlington City Councilor Anthony Pollina, nominee for governor in 2000 and 2008, state senator and former party chair
Results
Liberty Union primary Peter Diamondstone, who co-founded the Liberty Union Party and had run for elected office almost two dozen times, was unopposed.
Candidates
Declared Peter Diamondstone, party co-founder and perennial candidate
Results
Libertarian nomination Feliciano, a businessman who also ran as a write-in candidate in the Republican primary, was unopposed for the Libertarian nomination.
Candidates Declared Dan Feliciano, businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2010 (also ran as a write-in in the Republican primary)
Independent Candidates Declared Cris Ericson, perennial candidate (also ran for Vermont's at-large congressional district) Bernard Peters Emily Peyton, independent candidate for governor in 2010 and 2012 (also ran in the Republican primary)
Declined Bruce Lisman, banker
General election Debates A general election debate, attended by party nominees Shumlin, Milne, Diamondstone and Feliciano and Independent candidates Ericson, Peters and Peyton, was held on October 9. It attracted considerable media attention and was described variously as "funny", "strange", "crazy", "one of the strangest of this election cycle", "very, very special" and "beard-filled". Comments by all of the candidates apart from Shumlin drew media attention and laughter from the studio audience, such as Milne describing himself as "third-generation, born in Vermont", only to correct himself and state that he was born in Brooklyn; Ericson, who sported a large bow-topped hat, suggesting that poor Vermonters use their food stamps to buy lottery tickets and decrying "chemtrails"; Diamondstone, who wore jean shorts with suspenders and long socks and sported a large beard, calling for revolutionary socialism, the legalisation of all drugs and secession from the union, as well as comparing students to "slaves" because of the cost of higher education and responding to a question about the Department of Children and Families by railing against the U.S. military and the "Zionist regime"; Peters answering a question about the affordability of college in Vermont by saying that he had "no idea"; and self-described "light worker" Peyton shouting at Shumlin for allegedly closing highway restrooms and using her closing remarks to ask Vermonters if they'd rather choose money or love.
Additional debates among the candidates were held, which also drew attention. Former governor Howard Dean described the debates as a "good thing for the state" and Time magazine's Denver Nicks called them a "breath of fresh air" and "pure entertainment". There was a final debate on October 29 with just the top three candidates: Shumlin, Milne and Feliciano.
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror PeterShumlin (D) ScottMilne (R) EmilyPeyton (I) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 329 ± 8% 47% 35% 2% 2% 13%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 328 ± 6% 46% 29% 11% 2% 12%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 430 ± 6% 45% 35% 2% 3% 15%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports August 28–29, 2014 700 ± 4% 48% 36% — 7% 9%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 512 ± ? 52% 27% 15% 0% 6%
Results
By county CountyPeter ShumlinDemocraticScott MilneRepublicanVarious candidatesOther parties#%#%#%Addison6,02546.6%5,76544.6%1,1308.7%Bennington6,20755.5%4,18037.4%8017.2%Caledonia3,13735.1%4,96255.6%8309.3%Chittenden23,75350.4%18,98840.3%4,3839.3%Essex52431.9%96758.9%1529.3%Franklin4,85036.2%7,35354.8%1,2089.0%Grand Isle1,19640.5%1,49050.5%2679.1%Lamoille3,20741.5%3,81049.3%7139.2%Orange4,32945.7%4,53247.8%6205.5%Orleans2,44831.2%4,52157.6%'87711.1%Rutland7,21037.8%10,28954.0%1,5568.1%Washington9,19045.0%9,29045.5%1,9259.5%Windham7,82962.1%3,77630.0%9987.9%Windsor9,60454.0%7,15240.2%1,0435.8% Totals89,50946.4%87,07545.1%16,5038.5% Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Grand Isle (largest municipality: Alburgh) Lamoille (largest municipality: Morristown) Orange (largest city: Randolph) Rutland (largest municipality: Rutland) Washington (largest municipality: Barre)
By municipality and district Of Vermont's 275 "polling places" that report results separately—corresponding to the state's 255 towns and cities, with some larger municipalities broken into multiple precincts—Milne won a plurality in 162 precincts, or 58.9%. Shumlin won 112, or 40.7%, and they were tied in one other. Shumlin won the state's biggest voting area, Burlington (representing 9,604 gubernatorial voters), by a margin of 66% to 23%. Of the state's 10 largest municipalities, Shumlin also won South Burlington, Bennington, Montpelier, Hartford and Middlebury. Milne won Essex, Colchester, Rutland City, Williston and Barre Town. Of Vermont's 13 multi-member Senate districts, aligning roughly with the state's 14 counties, Milne won eight (61.5%) and Shumlin five (38.5%). Milne won the popular vote in 53 House districts; Shumlin won in 51.
General Assembly vote