The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth consecutive above-average and damaging season dating back to 2016. The season featured eighteen named storms, however, many storms were weak and short-lived, especially towards the end of the season. Six of those named storms achieved hurricane status, while three intensified into major hurricanes. Two storms became Category 5 hurricanes, marking the fourth consecutive season with at least one Category 5 hurricane, and the third consecutive season to feature at least one storm making landfall at Category 5 intensity. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20, making this the fifth consecutive year in which a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed outside of the official season.
The season's first hurricane, Barry, formed in mid-July in the northern Gulf of Mexico and struck Louisiana. Barry caused two deaths and produced flooding in Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, with damage totaling about $600 million (2019 USD). Hurricane Dorian, the most intense tropical cyclone of the season, proved to be the costliest natural disaster in the history of the Bahamas, becoming the strongest hurricane to strike the country. Overall, Dorian caused about $5.1 billion in damage and 84 fatalities, mostly in the Bahamas. Tropical Storm Fernand left flooding in Mexico, with approximately $43.7 million in damage and one death. Hurricane Humberto caused extensive wind damage in Bermuda, totaling at least $25 million.
Drifting over Texas, Tropical Storm Imelda resulted in a devastating flood in the eastern portions of the state, with about $5 billion in damage and five fatalities. Lorenzo, which became the easternmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, caused 11 deaths after sinking the French tugboat Bourbon Rhode and 8 other fatalities from rough surf along the East Coast of the United States. With Dorian and Lorenzo both intensifying into Category 5 hurricanes, the season became one of eight seasons to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes, a feat that would not occur again until 2024. Additionally, Tropical Storm Nestor caused a tornado outbreak across west Florida in mid-October, leaving $125 million in damage, while a car crash in South Carolina killed three people. Tropical Storm Olga caused moderate damage and heavy flooding over the central Gulf Coast and generated hurricane-force wind gusts as far north as Tennessee. The storm left one dead and around $400 million in damage. Hurricane Pablo became the easternmost hurricane formation on record, beating 2005's Hurricane Vince. The season concluded with Tropical Storm Sebastien, which became extratropical on November 24.
Most forecasting agencies projected a near-average or slightly above season, with many expecting near-normal sea surface temperatures but expressing uncertainty about the intensity of El Niño. Ultimately, activity in regards to number of named storms exceeded all forecasts, but the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes remained within the predicted range. __TOC__
Seasonal forecasts +Predictions of tropical activity in the 2019 seasonSourceDateNamedstormsHurricanesMajorhurricanesAverage (1981–2010)12.16.42.7Record high activity30157†Record low activity10†0† TSRDecember 11, 20181252CSUApril 4, 20191352TSRApril 5, 20191252NCSUApril 16, 201913–165–72–3TWCMay 6, 20191473UKMOMay 21, 201913*7*3*NOAAMay 23, 20199–154–82–4TSRMay 30, 20191262CSUJune 4, 20191462UAJune 11, 20191683TSRJuly 4, 20191262CSUJuly 9, 20191462CSUAugust 5, 20191472TSRAugust 6, 20191362NOAAAugust 8, 201910–175–92–4Actual activity1863* June–November only.† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) Ahead of and during the hurricane season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) are likely to form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed; therefore, long-lived storms and particularly strong systems result in high levels of ACE. The measure is calculated at full advisories for cyclones at tropical storm strength — storms with winds in excess of 39 mph (63 km/h).
Pre-season outlooks The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season. CSU released their first forecast on April 4, 2019, predicting a near-average season with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, citing the persistence of the weak El Niño and slightly colder than average sea surface temperatures. On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated their earlier predictions. North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes. On May 6, the Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The UK Met Office released their forecast on May 21, predicting 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy of 109 units. On May 23, NOAA released their first prediction, calling for a near-normal season with 9–15 named systems, 4–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes. TSR released an updated forecast on May 30, which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6.
Mid-season outlooks On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include a total of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, including Subtropical Storm Andrea. CSU noted continuing uncertainty about the intensity of the El Niño, but also increasing ocean temperatures, which were near-normal by then. The University of Arizona (UA) predicted on June 11 that the season would feature above-average activity – 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units. On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast. CSU released their second mid-season outlook on July 9, with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast. On August 5, the CSU released their third mid-season outlook, still retaining the same numbers from their previous forecast, albeit slightly revising the numbers of hurricanes from 6 to 7. TSR released their second and final mid-season outlook on August 6, with the only changes of increasing the number of named storms from 12 to 13. On August 8, NOAA released their second prediction with increasing the chances for 10–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes, suggesting above-average activity.
Seasonal summary
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1. The season featured twenty tropical depressions, eighteen of which became tropical or subtropical storms. With eighteen named storms, the season was at the time, along with 1969, the fourth most active since records began. Six of those intensified into hurricanes, with three further strengthening into major hurricanes. It was the fourth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with above average activity, which last occurred from 1998–2001. Five systems developed in the Gulf of Mexico, tying with 1957 and 2003 for highest number of tropical cyclones forming in the region in a season. Factors contributing to abnormally high activity included a stronger west-African monsoon, warmer than average ocean temperatures, and low wind shear, particularly over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2019 collectively resulted in 116 deaths and around $11.62 billion in damage.*
The season officially ended on November 30.
Activity began before the official start of the season when Subtropical Storm Andrea formed on May 20. This marked the fifth consecutive year with a pre-season named storm, surpassing the previous record of four between 1951 and 1954. No storms formed in the month of June, but activity resumed in July when Hurricane Barry developed on July 11 and Tropical Depression Three formed on July 22. Thereafter, tropical cyclogenesis ceased again for nearly one month, until Tropical Storm Chantal developed on August 20. The month of August featured two other systems, Hurricane Dorian and Tropical Storm Erin, with the former being the most intense tropical cyclone of the season. Dorian peaked as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of . The 2019 season also marked the fourth consecutive year with at least one Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin, exceeding the previous record of three seasons between 2003 and 2005. There were two Category 5 systems during the season, which had not occurred since 2017.
September was the most active month of the season, featuring seven named storms, including Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo. On September 29, Lorenzo became the easternmost Category 5 hurricane on record. October featured above average activity, with the formation of Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, and Rebekah, though none remained a tropical or subtropical cyclone for more than three days. Pablo became the easternmost hurricane on record, reaching that intensity east of the previous record-holder, Vince in 2005. Aside from Rebekah persisting into November, the month featured one other system, Tropical Storm Sebastien. Activity during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season concluded when Sebastien transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on November 24. The seasonal activity was reflected with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index value of 132.2 units.
Systems Subtropical Storm Andrea