State collapse is the catastrophic breakdown of a sovereign state's institutional apparatus, resulting in the inability to sustain a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
During periods of state collapse, a provisional government may be formed, particularly where whatever circumstances have caused the first stages of state collapse have resulted in a coup d'état. Regimes attempting to avert state collapse may become increasingly violent and paranoid, resulting in civil society actors and local leaders losing trust in the ability of the central government to exercise effective control and choosing to defend their interests militarily. Neighboring states or great powers may interfere politically, sometime supporting rebel groups. As a result of the collapse of the central government's ability to effectuate economic regulation and taxation, the informal economy becomes dominant, resulting in declining government resources and a vicious cycle of reduction in state capacity.
Definitions and examples While the definitions of "failed state" and "fragile state" have been contested for being "too broad and too vague", foreign policy experts such as Charles T. Call have advocated focusing on extreme cases of "collapsed states" instead, defined as "countries whose state apparatus ceases to exist for a period of several months". According to Call, between 1995 and 2005, the main examples of collapsed states included Somalia, which had a sustained collapse from 1990 to 2004; the Soviet Union in 1991; Yugoslavia in 1992; and possibly Afghanistan from 1992 to 1995.
Recent scholarship has focused on identifying measurable dimensions of state capacity, building on the institutionalist approach associated with Max Weber. Daniel Lambach, Eva Johais, and Markus Bayer have thus defined state collapse as the inability to: make and enforce binding rules; maintain a monopoly on violence; and collect taxes. Using this framework, Lambach et al. identified 17 collapsed states between 1960 and 2007. The majority of cases were in sub-Saharan Africa, involving armed rebellions in countries including Chad, Uganda, Liberia, Somalia, Angola, Zaire, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone, plus Congo-Kinshasa, which collapsed following decolonization from Belgium. The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to state collapse in Georgia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Tajikistan. Other cases of state collapse included Laos, following an attack backed by the United States which led to partitioning of the country into spheres of influence; Lebanon, which went through a full-scale civil war; and Afghanistan, where insurgents challenged the communist regime and moved against Soviet intervention.
Theories and causes
In 2020, Johais, Bayer and Lambach proposed a dynamic model of the causes of state collapse. In their article in Global Change, Peace & Security, they argue that a state collapse happens when 1) opposition groups arm themselves and mobilise against the government; 2) political transitions such as decolonisation or regime change cause existing power structures to be questioned; 3) politics prolong power struggles and undermine existing institutions; 4) repression causes extreme distrust between rulers and the rest of society; 5) factionalism obstructs strengthening of state policies; 6) loss of cohesion within the ruling elite erodes the monopolisation of violence, rule-making, and tax collection; and 7) external interventions contribute to destabilisation.
Cyclical theories
Islamic scholar Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) produced a general theory of state collapse, transforming the study of history into a "new science".J.J. Saunders, review of 'Ibn Khaldun's Philosophy of History' by Muhsin Mahdi, "History and Theory" vol 5, no 3, (1966), pp. 322–347. In his eyes, dynasties repeatedly become "sedentary, senile, coercive, pompous, subservient to desire ... liable to divisions in the dynasty." Group feeling (asabiyyah, groupthink) disappears as the dynasty grows senile. After three generations a new invading clique, "restless, alert and courageous", will cause the old dynasty to collapseThe Muqaddimah, Routledge, 1978, pp. 244–255. in accordance with the principle in the Book of Exodus, chapter 20, verse four: God "visits the sins of the fathers onto their children, even unto the third and fourth generation of those that hate Him". Ibn Khaldun was fatalistic: "This senility is a chronic disease which cannot be cured because it is something natural".Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah Routledge, 1978, p. 245. Professor Geoff Mulgan discusses Ibn Khaldun in detail and agrees on the timescale: "There are obvious parallels between the lifespans of individuals and those of ruling groups."Geoff Mulgan, Good and bad power, Penguin, 2007, p. 199.
In the case of the USSR, a Marxist revolutionary wave had formed in which several subordinate regimes in Eastern Europe and Africa collapsed almost simultaneously with the central power.Mark Katz, Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves, St Martin's Press, 1997, pp. 83–87
Mass psychology
The Japanese philosopher Hajime Tanabe points to the quasi-religious role of the state to mediate between mortal individuals and the eternal universe, so that states regularly collapse; like religious figures, they must undergo a process of death and resurrection. In his view this may account for the perennial popularity of states because they regularly demonstrate their ability to transcend death.Ian Mcgreal, Great Thinkers of the Eastern World, Harper Collins, 1995, p, 388.
PsychologistsRobert Alter, "The Masada complex", Commentary magazine, 1 July 1973.Jerrold M. Post, editor, The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders, University of Michigan Press, 2003, p. 345. speak of a "Masada complex" that may drive fanatics to a suicidal, violent last-ditch stand. In a totalitarian state or an ideocracy, individuals may develop a closed mind and an authoritarian personality, making them more likely to resist threats to the incumbent regime.Piekalkiewicz and Penn, The Politics of Ideocracy, SUNY Press, 1995, p. 45.
According to psychologist Erich Fromm it is possible for an entire nation, if they all share the same vices and errors, to become insane—a "folie a millions". Inhumane treatment by the rulers inevitably leads to collapse; Despots and ruling cliques can succeed in dominating and exploiting their fellow man ... but their subjects react ... with apathy, impairment of intelligence, initiative and skills ... or they react by the accumulation of such hate and destructiveness as to bring about an end to themselves, their rulers and their system. ... if man lives under conditions contrary to his nature and to human growth and sanity, he cannot help reacting.'Erich Fromm, The Sane Society, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1979, pp. 18–19.
Democratic decay
Mark Blyth alleges that a democracy can also collapse "if voters don't get what they want and merely affirm the status quo." In these circumstances, voters deprived of real choice may opt for the least democratic option.Mark Blyth, "When Does Democracy Fail?", The Washington Post, 15 December 2016. In a divided, collapsing country lacking civil institutions, or in a closed country attempting reform and openness, the process of democratisation is 'dangerous' and may hasten collapse.Marina Ottaway in Collapsed states, ed I William Zartman, pp. 239–244Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon & Schuster 2006, p. 79
Increasing coercion and dictatorship
In the USSR and Apartheid South Africa, the state became 'evil or tyrannical... destroying the institutions of civil society';Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, p. 7 and in Somalia between 1970 and 1991, Siad Barre changed from 'prophetic rule, to autocracy, to tyranny'.Hussein Mohamed Adam in Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, p. 71 In this context John Kenneth Galbraith regrets the "very slight" amount of research on the nature of political power.John Kenneth Galbraith, The Anatomy of Power, Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 4. Power regularly passes to those who "assert the unknown with the greatest conviction... not necessarily related to intelligence."John Kenneth Galbraith, The Anatomy of Power, Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 41. What we call "power" is, "in practice, the illusion of power."John Kenneth Galbraith, The Anatomy of Power, Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 70. Discussing how the "powerless" Mahatma Gandhi brought about the collapse of militarily "powerful" British India, Galbraith reflects that power, mostly seen as a possession of states and their leaders, would be better viewed as a flow, into and away from "those instruments that enforce it".John Kenneth Galbraith, The Anatomy of Power, Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 89. Martin Wight deplored the "demonic concentrations of power" of the defeated countries in the two world wars. A devout Christian, he saw their "triumphant self-destruction" as "Antichrist moments".Ian Hall, The International Thought of Martin Wight, Palgrave, 2006, p. 70
Messianic leadership style
According to political scientists, in an ideocracy there must be a ruthless charismatic leader: "the leader is the movement",Piekalkiewicz and Penn, Politics of Ideocracy, State University of New York, 1995, p. 133 and all individuals are required to submit to, and worship him.Erich Fromm, The Sane Society, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1955, p. 237. "Followers who lead barren, insecure, frustrated lives obey the leader, not through faith in his vision of a 'Promised land', but because he leads them away from their unwanted selves".Eric Hoffer, The True Believer, Harper Perennial 2010, pp. 100, 119 When collapse threatens he may insist on a "fight to the finish".
Hitler, according to Walter Langer,The Mind of Adolf Hitler, Pan, 1972, pp. 33, 55 had a Messiah complex and saw himself as the "Saviour of Germany" who performed "miracles" with the economy.Sebastian Haffner, The Meaning of Hitler, Phoenix 2002, pp. 27–30 He was unnaturally fond of his mother, to the extent that Germany became a "mother symbol".Walter Langer, The Mind of Adolf Hitler, Pan 1972, p. 155. His drive to destroy (the Jews, communism, Europe) was an unconscious attempt to resolve his Oedipus complex and the injustices of his childhood.Walter Langer, The Mind of Adolf Hitler, Pan 1972, p. 157 He "dismantled the German state ... and replaced it with a war machine".Sebastian Haffner, The Meaning of Hitler, Pelican 2002, pp. 40, 42. He was swept along by a tide of events.Ian Hall, The international thought of Martin Wight, Palgrave 2006, p. 47
Mussolini, according to Denis Mack Smith, "was an actor, playing the part that Italians wanted him to be".Mussolini, Phoenix, 1993, pp. 112–115 He was vindictive, sadistic, impulsive, proud and cruel, full of "demonic wilfulness" and did not know right from wrong. When in 1944 he led a puppet state in northern Italy, he "divided Italy in two and initiated 18 months of terrible civil war."Denis Mack Smith, Mussolini, Phoenix 1993, p. 300 Ken Livingstone has compared Slobodan Milošević to Hitler for his racism and expansionist goals.'Why we are not wrong to compare Milosevic to Hitler', Independent, 20 April 1999 Saddam Hussein, who also suffered from a Messiah complex,Jerrold M Post, The psychological assessment of political leaders, University of Michigan Press, 2003, p. 354 was similar: "Hitler was not one of a kind. As long as millions of people passionately long for his return, it is only a matter of time until their wish is fulfilled."Hans Enzensburger, "Perspective on Saddam Hussein", Los Angeles Times, 14 February 1991.