2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office, and won the primary by a wide margin. Governor Maggie Hassan chose not to seek re-election to a third term as governor, and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%. This made the election the closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, and also the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974–75 election. Hassan became the first Democratic senator elected in this seat since the latter election and only the second since 1932, when a Democrat had last won a full term to this seat.

The Democratic Party also flipped New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the concurrent House election, thus marking the first time since 1854 that New Hampshire had an entirely Democratic congressional delegation. To date, this remains the last time that a Democratic candidate for Senate in New Hampshire has failed to win a majority of the vote or lost any county other than Belknap and Coös, and the last New Hampshire U.S. Senate race where the incumbent was defeated. Hassan was sworn in on January 3, 2017, marking the first time since 1979 that Democrats simultaneously held both of New Hampshire's Senate seats.

Republican primary Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger". Ultimately, she faced only token opposition and won the primary with more than 78% of the vote.

Candidates Nominee Kelly Ayotte, incumbent U.S. senator

Eliminated in primary Tom Alciere Gerald Beloin, perennial candidate Stanley Emanuel Jim Rubens, former state senator, candidate for governor in 1998 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014

Declined Andrew Hemingway, businessman and candidate for governor in 2014 Ovide Lamontagne, attorney, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for governor in 1996 and 2012 Bill O'Brien, state representative and former speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives

Polling

Poll source KellyAyotte OvideLamontagne Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 358 ± ? 57% 32% — 12%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Maggie Hassan, governor of New Hampshire

Declined Mark Connolly, former deputy secretary of state and director of securities regulation (running for governor) Paul Hodes, former U.S. representative and 2010 nominee Ann McLane Kuster, U.S. representative (running for re-election) John Lynch, former governor of New Hampshire Shawn O'Connor, businessman (running for NH-01) Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. representative (running for NH-01) Colin Van Ostern, executive councilor (running for governor)

Results

Libertarian convention On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot as their nominee for the U.S. Senate.

General election Candidates Kelly Ayotte (R), incumbent senator Brian Chabot (L) Aaron Day (I), former chairman of the Free State Project and conservative activist Maggie Hassan (D), governor of New Hampshire

Debates Dates Location Ayotte Hassan LinkSeptember 30, 2016North Conway, New HampshireParticipantParticipantFull debateOctober 14, 2016Manchester, New HampshireParticipantParticipantFull debateOctober 27, 2016Concord, New HampshireParticipantParticipantFull debateNovember 2, 2016Manchester, New HampshireParticipantParticipantFull debate

Endorsements

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 2, 2016 Inside Elections November 3, 2016 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 Daily Kos November 8, 2016 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KellyAyotte (R) MaggieHassan (D) Other UndecidedSurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 42% 51% 6% 1%WMUR/UNH WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 45% 49% 1% 4%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 41% 50% 7% 2%Emerson CollegeEmerson College November 4–5, 2016 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5% 1%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 2% 6%WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%WMUR/UNH October 31 – November 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 42% 48% 3% 7%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%Breitbart/Gravis MarketingBreitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,001 ± 2.0% 46% 44% — 10%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 31 – November 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 42% 5% 8%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group October 31 – November 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 3%WMUR/UNH October 30 – November 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 41% 48% 3% 8%UMass Lowell/7NewsUMass Lowell/7News October 28 – November 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 46% 47% 5% 3% 901 RV ± 3.8% 43% 46% 5% 6%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 37% 50% 10% 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 45% 48% — 7%WMUR/UNH October 29 – November 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 47% 2% 8%WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC October 29 – November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 3% 48% 43% — 6%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 46% 2% 8%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 8% 4%WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 45% 45% 2% 8%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 44% 46% 3% 8%WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 44% 45% 3% 8%InsideSources/NH JournalInsideSources/NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 49% 47% — 4%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 23–25, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 6% 1%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 6% 2%NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 2% 1,020 RV ± 3.1% 48% 47% 2% 3%UMass Amherst/WBZUMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 48% 44% 4% 4% 46% 43% 4% 8%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 17–19, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10% 1%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 39% 48% 4% 9%Washington Post/SurveyMonkeyWashington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 42% 47% 10% 1%WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 47% 2% 5% 46% 45% 2% 6%7News/UMass Lowell7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 45% 44% 4% 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 7–9, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 44% — 13%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 47% 41% 4% 6%WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 45% 48% 3% 4% 46% 48% 3% 3%GBA StrategiesGBA Strategies September 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 7% 2% 47% 49% — 4%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 47% 47% — 6%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 2% 5%NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist September 6–8, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 52% 44% — 4%Emerson CollegeEmerson College September 3–5, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 48% 46% — 6%Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 585 ± 4.1% 44% 47% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 26–28, 2016 977 ± 3.0% 45% 47% — 8%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 42% 44% 3% 12%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov August 10–12, 2016 990 ± 4.3% 41% 42% — 17%Vox Populi Polling (R)Vox Populi Polling (R) August 7–8, 2016 820 ± 3.4% 43% 46% — 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 42% 47% — 11%WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC July 29 – August 1, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 50% 2% 7% 37% 48% 2% 11%GBA Strategies July 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 4%InsideSources/NH JournalInsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 1,166 ± 5.1% 49% 41% — 10%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.5% 42% 45% 3% 11%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group June 24–28, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 51% 42% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 578 ± 4.1% 42% 44% — 15%Global Strategy GroupGlobal Strategy Group June 15–16, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 45% 49% — 6%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy CorpsGreenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 47% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 649 ± 3.9% 44% 47% — 8%Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce UniversityBoston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 48% 47% — 5%Global Strategy Group May 25–26, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% — 12%WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC May 12–15, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 46% 48% 2% 4%Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College April 11–16, 2016 362 ± 5.2% 37% 35% — 28%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 43% 42% — 15%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH February 20–28, 2016 628 ± 3.7% 45% 41% 4% 10%Marist PollMarist Poll January 28, 2016 2,258 ± 2.1% 45% 40% — 15%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 44% 42% — 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 30 – December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 42% 42% — 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 43% 44% — 13%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing October 5–6, 2015 1,035 ± 3.1% 52% 42% — 6%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH September 21 – October 2, 2015 519 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 1% 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 44% 43% — 13%NBC News/Marist PollNBC News/Marist Poll July, 2015 910 ± 3.2% 50% 42% — 8%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 1% 12%The Tarrance GroupThe Tarrance Group July 5–6, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 51% 44% — 5%Fabrizio, Lee and AssociatesFabrizio, Lee and Associates June 25–28, 2015 500 ± 3.0% 52% 41% — 7%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH May 6–22, 2015 524 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 2% 9%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing April 21–22, 2015 1,117 ± 3.0% 51% 43% — 6%Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 45% 46% — 9%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing March 18–19, 2015 1,110 ± 5.0% 47% 45% — 8%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies February 17–18, 2015 424 ± 4.7% 46% 45% — 9%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist February 3–10, 2015 887 ± 3.3% 44% 48% — 7%New England CollegeNew England College December 1, 2014 541 ± 4.2% 48% 43% 4% 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 46% 40% — 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3.0% 45% 44% — 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 44% 46% — 10%

with Kelly Ayotte Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KellyAyotte (R) Ann McLaneKuster (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 49% 38% 13%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KellyAyotte (R) ChrisPappas (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 45% 31% 24%

with Jim Rubens Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JimRubens (R) MaggieHassan (D) Other UndecidedWMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 27% 51% 8% 14%WMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.2% 30% 48% 6% 16%WMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 30% 46% — 24%

with Ovide Lamontagne Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror OvideLamontagne (R) MaggieHassan (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 35% 54% 11%