The 2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2014, the general Election Day in the United States, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz was appointed to the office in December 2012, following the death of longtime senator Daniel Inouye. The special election determined who would serve the remainder of Inouye's term, which ended on January 3, 2017.

The Hawaii primary elections took place on August 9, 2014, but the Democratic primary remained unresolved until August 15 due to areas affected by damage from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz narrowly fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa and then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, former state representative Campbell Cavasso, in a landslide. This was the first election since 1959 in which a non-Asian was elected to represent Hawaii in the U.S. Senate.

Background Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old. He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible." Inouye died on December 17, 2012. He left a letter encouraging Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to succeed Inouye, should he become incapacitated.

Hawaii law allows the governor to appoint an interim senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits". Abercrombie appointed the lieutenant governor of Hawaii Brian Schatz as U.S. senator, citing Hanabusa's seniority on the United States House Committee on Armed Services as a chief reason not to appoint her to the position.Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to Replace Inouye in U.S. Senate | Hawaii Reporter

Democratic primary Candidates Declared Brian Evans, singer and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004 Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative Brian Schatz, incumbent U.S. senatorFormer Congressman Ed Case Joins Growing List of Democrats Applying for Inouye’s U.S. Senate Seat | Hawaii Reporter

Declined Gil Kahele, state senator Esther Kia'aina, deputy director of the Hawai'i Department of Land and Natural Resources

Endorsements

Debates Complete video of debate, July 14, 2014

Polling Poll source BrianSchatz ColleenHanabusa Other UndecidedQMark Research^QMark Research^ February 2013 500 ± 4.38% 32% 54% — 13%Clarity Campaigns^Clarity Campaigns^ June 10–11, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 35% 46% — 19%Civil BeatCivil Beat June 18–20 & 24, 2013 869 ± 3.3% 36% 33% 9% 23%Mellman Group*Mellman Group* June 26–30, 2013 600 ± ?% 38% 37% — 25%Civil BeatCivil Beat October 9–10, 2013 549 ± 4.2% 38% 36% — 26%Mellman Group*Mellman Group* January 7–13, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% 37% — 22%Hawaii Poll January 29 – February 3, 2014 528 ± 4.3% 40% 48% — 11%Civil BeatCivil Beat February 12–15, 2014 643 ± 3.9% 40% 40% — 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 9–11, 2014 606 ± 4% 49% 34% — 17%Civil BeatCivil Beat May 18–19, 2014 520 ± 4.3% 44% 39% — 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 23–24, 2014 410 ± ? 49% 39% — 11%Civil BeatCivil Beat July 24–28, 2014 895 ± 3.3% 49% 41% — 10%Hawaii PollHawaii Poll July 21–29, 2014 458 ± 4.6% 42% 50% — 8%

* Internal poll for Brian Schatz campaign ^ Internal poll for Colleen Hanabusa campaign

Delay in election result Primary elections in Hawaii were held on August 9, 2014. However, two precincts in Puna on Hawaiʻi Island did not open due to damage from Hurricane Iselle, and the approximately 8,255 voters in those precincts instead voted on August 15. The two leading Democratic candidates, Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz, were initially separated by only 1,635 votes, meaning that the outcome was officially uncertain until voting in Puna was finished. However, an analysis by Hawaii News Now showed that Hanabusa would need to win approximately 65% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to overtake Schatz, something she had not managed in any other precinct in the state. Thus, Schatz was seen as the likely winner. After voting in Puna was completed, Schatz was declared the winner by a slightly increased margin of 1,769 votes. Hanabusa conceded on August 19.

Results

Republican primary Candidates Declared Campbell Cavasso, former state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004 and 2010 Harry Friel, businessman Eddie Pirkowski, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006, 2010 and 2012 John Roco, founder of Saint Damien Advocates and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012

Declined Charles Djou, former U.S. representative (running for HI-01) Linda Lingle, former governor of Hawaii and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012Colleen Hanabusa favorite for Daniel Inouye seat - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com

Results Vote totals listed do not include two precincts that voted on August 15.

Libertarian primary Candidates Michael Kokoski

Results

Independent primary Candidates Joy Allison Arturo Pacheco Reyes

Results

Neither of the candidates polled enough votes to meet Hawaii's strict criteria for independents to participate in the general election.

General election Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014

Polling Poll source BrianSchatz (D) CampbellCavasso (R) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,087 ± 3% 58% 22% 15% 5%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 655 ± 6% 62% 27% 0% 10%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 60% 28% 6% 7%Civil BeatCivil Beat September 11–14, 2014 1,055 ± 3% 62% 25% — 13%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,319 ± 4% 78% 22% 0% 0%Ward Research October 11–18, 2014 605 ± 4% 71% 20% — 10%Civil BeatCivil Beat October 16–19, 2014 1,221 ± 2.8% 55% 29% — 16%CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,002 ± 6% 70% 18% 1% 11%

Results

By county

CountyBrian SchatzDemocraticCampbell CavassoRepublicanAll Others#%#%#%Hawaii35,50973.24%11,09322.88%1,8813.88%Honolulu163,41168.15%71,48729.81%4,8892.04%Kauaʻi16,18973.67%5,25023.89%5372.44%Maui31,66872.86%10,16523.39%1,6343.76% Totals246,82769.77%98,00627.7%8,9412.53%

Notes

References

External links U.S. Senate elections in Hawaii, 2014 at Ballotpedia Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets Brian Schatz for U.S. Senate Eddie Pirkowski for U.S. Senate Campbell Cavasso for U.S. Senate Colleen Hanabusa for U.S. Senate John Roco for U.S. Senate