The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.

Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle. This was the first time since 2003 that a Republican was elected governor of Kentucky, and the most recent time that this has occurred.

This is the only instance in history in which Knott County has backed a Republican candidate for governor. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2015.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared Jack Conway, attorney general of Kentucky (2008–2016) and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 Running mate: Sannie Overly, state representative Geoff Young, retired engineer and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014 Running mate: Johnathan Masters Former running mate: Cherokee Schill

Declined Jerry Abramson, White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville"Jerry Abramson announces he will not run for governor". WLKY.com. Retrieved August 6, 2013. Rocky Adkins, majority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives Ben Chandler, former U.S. representative, former attorney general of Kentucky and nominee for governor in 2003 Luther Deaton, banker Adam Edelen, state auditor of Kentucky (ran for re-election) Greg Fischer, mayor of Louisville Alison Lundergan Grimes, secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (ran for re-election) Crit Luallen, lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former state auditor of Kentucky Daniel Mongiardo, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004 Greg Stumbo, speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives, former attorney general of Kentucky and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2007 John Yarmuth, U.S. representative

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JackConway GeoffYoung UndecidedSurvey USA May 5–10, 2015 707 ± 3.5% 68% 13% 19%Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 640 ± 3.9% 61% 12% 27%Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 255 ± 6.14% 59% 13% 28%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared Matt Bevin, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 Running mate: Jenean Hampton, former chairwoman of the Bowling Green/Southern Kentucky Tea Party and nominee for the 20th Kentucky House district in 2014 James Comer, agriculture commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012 Running mate: Christian McDaniel, state senator, 2013–present Hal Heiner, former member of the Louisville Metro Council, 2003–2010; and nominee for mayor of Louisville in 2010 Running mate: K.C. Crosbie, former Lexington-Fayette Urban County councilwoman, 2006–2014; former finance chairwoman and national chairwoman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, and nominee for Kentucky state treasurer in 2011 Will T. Scott, former associate justice of the Kentucky Supreme Court, 2005–2015; nominee for attorney general of Kentucky in 1995 and for KY-07 in 1988 and 1990 Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association president, 2014-2015

Withdrew Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012

Declined Cathy Bailey, businesswoman and former United States Ambassador to Latvia Andy Barr, U.S. representative Jess Correll, banker Richie Farmer, former agriculture commissioner of Kentucky Ernie Fletcher, former governor and former U.S. representative Trey Grayson, former secretary of state of Kentucky and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 Brett Guthrie, U.S. representative Thomas Massie, U.S. representative Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator and Senate majority leader Phil Moffett, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for governor in 2011 Rand Paul, U.S. senator and 2016 presidential candidate David L. Williams, judge on the Kentucky Circuit Courts, former president of the Kentucky Senate and nominee for governor in 2011

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror CathyBailey MattBevin JamesComer HalHeiner Will T.Scott UndecidedSurvey USA May 5–10, 2015 517 ± 4.4% — 27% 26% 25% 8% 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 6–7, 2015 501 ± 4.4% — 25% 28% 27% — 20%Triumph CampaignsTriumph Campaigns March 26, 2015 601 ± 4% — 12% 19% 33% 3% 29%Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 520 ± 4.4% — 20% 20% 28% 8% 25%Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 261 ± 6.07% — 18% 25% 19% 9% 30%Remington Research January 27–28, 2015 1,000 ± ? — 19% 22% 18% 5% 26%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 383 ± ? 11% 25% 20% 18% — 26% — — 22% 28% — 50%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies February 26–27, 2014 400 ± 4.9% — — 42% 14% — 13%

Results

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.

Independents Candidates Declared Drew Curtis, entrepreneur and founder and CEO of Fark.com Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis Gatewood Galbraith (formerly Terrill Wayne Newman), social worker (distinguish from politician Gatewood Galbraith) Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 26, 2015 Rothenberg Political Report October 27, 2015 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 29, 2015 DKE October 29, 2015

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JackConway (D) MattBevin (R) DrewCurtis (I) UndecidedVox PopuliVox Populi October 26–27, 2015 618 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 6% 6% 43% 46% 6% 7%Survey USASurvey USA October 23–26, 2015 798 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 6% 10%WKU Social Science Research CenterWKU Social Science Research Center October 19–25, 2015 770 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 7% 8%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 6–8, 2015 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 6% 10%Survey USASurvey USA September 22–27, 2015 701 ± 3.8% 42% 37% 7% 15%Survey USASurvey USA July 22–28, 2015 685 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 8% 11% 45% 42% — 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 35% 38% 6% 21% 38% 40% — 22%Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 37% — 16%Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 42% 36% — 22%Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 45% 41% — 14%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 44% 36% — 20%Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 36% — 25%

Conway vs. Bailey Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JackConway (D) CathyBailey (R) Other UndecidedGravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 30% — 27%Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 42% 30% — 28%

Conway vs. Comer Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JackConway (D) JamesComer (R) Other UndecidedSurvey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 45% 39% — 16%Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 40% 38% — 22%Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 41% 45% — 14%Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 40% 37% — 23%Garin-Hart-Yang*Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 48% 36% — 16%Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 38% 35% — 27%

Conway vs. Heiner Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JackConway (D) HalHeiner (R) Other UndecidedSurvey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 36% — 16%Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 41% 38% — 21%Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 42% 44% — 14%Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 34% — 22%Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 51% 30% — 19%Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 32% — 28%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 17–20, 2014 1,054 ± 3% 45% 36% — 19%

Conway vs. Scott Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JackConway (D) Will T.Scott (R) Other UndecidedSurvey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 32% — 20%Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 43% 33% — 24%Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 44% 40% — 16%

* Poll for the Kentucky Democratic Party

Results

By county