Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election

Statewide polls for the 2016 United States presidential election include the following. The polls listed here provide early data on opinion polling between the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, the Libertarian candidate, and the Green candidate. Prior to the parties' conventions, presumptive candidates were included in the polls. State polling is not conducted in all states for the election due to various factors. More polls usually are conducted in states that are considered swing states as more attention is given to the results. For determining a statistical tie, the margin of error provided by the polling source is applied to the result for each candidate.

Most recent polling Immediately before the election, Hillary Clinton had a vote lead among states recently polled. State polls with results outside the margin of error showed 213 potential electoral votes for Clinton and 162 potential electoral votes for Donald Trump. In 14 states and two congressional districts (150 electoral votes), results for Clinton and Trump were within the margin of error. For the two states and one district without recent polling, one state (6 electoral votes) voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 election, while one state and district (7 electoral votes) voted for Barack Obama. Third-party candidates, such as Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, were also included in many statewide polls. They have not received support in statewide polling that surpasses the two main party nominees. Independent candidate Evan McMullin was tied with Donald Trump in the state of Utah, but he has only been included on a very limited number of statewide polls.

State Date HillaryClinton DonaldTrump GaryJohnson JillStein EvanMcMullin Margin oferror Lead Clinton potential EVs Trump potential EVs Tied potential EVsResult Nationwide National polling 213 178 134 AlabamaSeptember 27, 2016 32% 48% 2.0% 16 9 25.8 AlaskaOctober 21–26, 2016 47% 43% 7% 3% 4.9% 4 3 14.7 ArizonaNovember 4–6, 2016 45% 47% 5% 2% 4.9% 2 11 3.5 ArkansasOctober 18–25, 2016 36% 59% 4.1% 23 6 26.9 CaliforniaNovember 4–6, 2016 58% 35% 3% 2% 4.9% 28 55 30.1 ColoradoNovember 3–4, 2016 48% 43% 4% 2% 1% 3.7% 5 9 4.9 ConnecticutSeptember 2–5, 2016 50% 35% 9% 4% 3.0% 15 7 13.6 DelawareSeptember 16–28, 2016 51% 30% 7% 2% 4.1% 21 3 11.4 Florida November 6, 2016 46% 50% 2% 1% 3.3% 4 29 1.2 GeorgiaNovember 6, 2016 45% 52% 2% 2.8% 7 16 5.1 IdahoOctober 23–24, 2016 29% 48% 6% 10% 4.0% 19 4 31.8 Illinois October 27–30, 2016 53% 41% 2% 0% 4.3% 12 20 17.1 IndianaNovember 1–3, 2016 37% 48% 9% 4.0% 11 11 18.9 IowaNovember 1–4, 2016 39% 46% 6% 1% 3.5% 7 6 9.4 KansasNovember 1–3, 2016 34% 58% 5.5% 24 6 20.6 KentuckyOctober 25–30, 2016 37% 54% 1% 1% 1% 4.0% 17 8 29.8 LouisianaOctober 19–21, 2016 35% 50% 5% 4.4% 15 8 19.6 MaineOctober 28–30, 2016 46% 42% 12% 2% 3.5% 4 1 3 3 MarylandSeptember 27–30, 2016 63% 27% 4% 2% 4.0% 36 10 26.4 MassachusettsOctober 23 – November 2, 2016 56% 26% 8% 3% 5.0% 30 11 27.2 MichiganNovember 6, 2016 47% 49% 3% 1% 2.8% 2 16 0.2 MinnesotaOctober 22–26, 2016 49% 39% 5% 2% 1% 3.9% 10 10 1.5 MissouriNovember 4–5, 2016 41% 47% 7% 2% 3.5% 6 10 18.6 MontanaOctober 10–12, 2016 36% 46% 11% 3.2% 10 3 20.4 NebraskaSeptember 25–27, 2016 29% 56% 7% 1% 3.6% 27 4 1 25 NevadaNovember 4–6, 2016 46% 46% 5% 1% 4.9% Tied 6 2.4 New HampshireNovember 3–6, 2016 49% 38% 6% 1% 3.7% 11 4 0.4 New Jersey October 27 – November 2, 2016 51% 40% 3% 1% 3.8% 11 14 14.2 New MexicoNovember 6, 2016 46% 44% 6% 1% 1.8% 2 5 8.2 New YorkNovember 3–4, 2016 51% 34% 5% 2% 4.5% 17 29 22.5 North CarolinaNovember 4–6, 2016 44% 44% 3% 3.5% Tied 15 3.6 North DakotaSeptember 12–17, 2016 32% 43% 8% 1% 4.9% 11 3 35.7 OhioOctober 27 – November 5, 2016 39% 46% 7% 3% 3.2% 7 18 8.1 OklahomaOctober 18–20, 2016 30% 60% 5% 4.3% 30 7 36.4 OregonOctober 24–29, 2016 41% 34% 4% 2% 4.4% 7 7 11 PennsylvaniaNovember 3–6, 2016 46% 40% 7% 2% 2.8%6 20 0.7 Rhode IslandOctober 2–4, 2016 52% 32% 5% 5% 3.4%20 4 18.5 South CarolinaOctober 30–31, 2016 36% 47% 3% 1% 4.4%11 9 14.7 South DakotaOctober 24–26, 2016 35% 49% 7% 4.0%14 3 29.8 Tennessee October 14–17, 2016 34% 44% 7% 2% 4.4%10 11 26 TexasOctober 31 – November 1, 2016 35% 49% 5% 4% 3.6% 14 38 9 UtahNovember 3–5, 2016 30% 40% 4% 25% 2.7% 10 6 18.1 VermontOctober 24–26, 2016 52% 26% 5% 2% 3.0% 26 3 26.4 VirginiaNovember 1–6, 2016 48% 42% 3% 1% 2% 3.6% 6 13 5.3 WashingtonNovember 4–6, 2016 55% 39% 4.9% 16 12 16.2 West VirginiaSeptember 13–17, 2016 28% 60% 5.0% 32 5 42.2 WisconsinNovember 1–2, 2016 49% 41% 3% 1.9% 8 10 0.8 WyomingOctober 5–11, 2016 20% 58% 9% 2% 3.6% 38 3 46.3 No recent polling 13

Alabama 9 electoral votes (Republican in 2008) 60%–39%(Republican in 2012) 61%–38%

Winner (Republican in 2016) 62%–34%

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error News-5/Strategy Research September 27, 2016 Hillary Clinton 32%Donald Trump48%16 3,000 ± 2.0%

Alaska 3 electoral votes (Republican in 2008) 59%–38%(Republican in 2012) 55%–41%

Winner (Republican in 2016) 51%–37%

Two-way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Lead marginSample sizeMargin of errorAlaska Survey ResearchSeptember 28 – October 2, 2016Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump46%4660± 3.8%

Four-way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Libertarian%Green%Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error Carciun Research October 21–26, 2016Hillary Clinton47% Donald Trump 43% Gary Johnson 7% Jill Stein 3%4 400 ± 4.9%Lake Research PartnersOctober 11–13, 2016Hillary Clinton36%Donald Trump37%Gary JohnsonJill Stein3%1500± 4.4%Moore InformationOctober 5–6, 2016Hillary Clinton34%Donald TrumpGary Johnson10%Jill Stein2%3500± 4%Alaska Survey ResearchSeptember 28 – October 2, 2016Hillary Clinton31%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson18%Jill Stein6%5660± 3.8%

Arizona 11 electoral votes (Republican in 2008) 53%–45%(Republican in 2012) 53%–44%

Winner (Republican in 2016) 48%–45%

Two-way race Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist October 30 – November 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton 41% Donald Trump 46% 5 719 ± 3.7% CNN/ORC October 27 – November 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton 46% Donald Trump 51% 769 ± 3.5% Ipsos/Reuters October 6–18, 2016 Hillary Clinton 38% Donald Trump 45% 7 1,538 ± 2.8% NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist September 6–8, 2016 Hillary Clinton 41% Donald Trump 42% 1 649 ± 3.8%

Three-way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error Data Orbital October 11–12, 2016Hillary Clinton43% Donald Trump 42% Gary Johnson 5%1 550 ± 4.12% Data Orbital September 20–22, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson9%2 550 ± 4.12%

Four-way race

Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Libertarian % Green % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error Insights West November 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton 45% Donald Trump 47% Gary Johnson 5% Jill Stein 2% 2 392 ± 4.9% Data Orbital November 1–2, 2016 Hillary Clinton 39% Donald Trump Gary Johnson 4% Jill Stein 3% 8 550 ± 4.12% NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist October 30 – November 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton 40% Donald Trump 45% Gary Johnson 9% Jill Stein 5 719 ± 3.7% CNN/ORC October 27 – November 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton 44% Donald Trump 49% Gary Johnson 5% Jill Stein 1% 769 ± 3.5% Saguaro Strategies October 29–31, 2016Hillary Clinton45%Donald Trump44%Gary Johnson7%Jill Stein1 2,229 ± 3% Emerson College October 29–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton 43% Donald Trump 47% Gary Johnson 2% Jill Stein 2% 4 700 ± 3.6% Data Orbital October 29–30, 2016 Hillary Clinton 41% Donald Trump 45% Gary Johnson 3% Jill Stein 1% 550 ± 4.12% CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016 Hillary Clinton 42% Donald Trump 44% Gary Johnson 4% Jill Stein 2 994 ± 4.3% Data Orbital October 26–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton 40% Donald Trump 42% Gary Johnson 5% Jill Stein 2% 550 ± 4.12% Saguaro Strategies October 21–24, 2016Hillary Clinton48%Donald Trump46%Gary JohnsonJill Stein1%2 2,385 ± 3% Monmouth University October 21–24, 2016Hillary Clinton45%Donald Trump46%Gary Johnson4%Jill Stein1 401 ± 4.9% Data Orbital October 17–18, 2016Hillary Clinton41%Donald Trump41%Gary Johnson5%Jill Stein2%Tied 550 ± 4.12% Ipsos/Reuters October 6–18, 2016 Hillary Clinton 39% Donald Trump 44% Gary Johnson 6% Jill Stein 5 1,538 ± 2.8% Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News October 10–15, 2016Hillary Clinton43%Donald Trump38%Gary JohnsonJill Stein1%5 713 ± 3.8% Highground October 14, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson8%Jill Stein3%2 400 ±4.88% Emerson College October 2–4, 2016Hillary Clinton44%Donald Trump42%Gary Johnson9%Jill Stein1% 600 ±3.90% OH Predictive Insights September 28–30, 2016Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump42%Gary Johnson5%Jill SteinTied 718 ±3.66% Insights West September 12–14, 2016Hillary Clinton41%Donald Trump46%Gary Johnson9%Jill Stein5 484 ± 4.5% NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist September 6–8, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson12%Jill Stein3%2 649 ± 3.8%

Arkansas 6 electoral votes (Republican in 2008) 59%–39%(Republican in 2012) 61%–37%

Winner (Republican in 2016) 61%–34%

Two-way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error University of Arkansas October 18–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton 36%Donald Trump59%23 800 ± 4.1%

Four-way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Libertarian%Green%Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error Talk Business/Hendrix College October 21, 2016 Hillary Clinton 33%Donald Trump56% Gary Johnson 4% Jill Stein 2%23 463 ± 4.6% Talk Business/Hendrix College September 15–17, 2016 Hillary Clinton 34%Donald Trump55% Gary Johnson 3% Jill Stein 1%21 831 ± 3.4% Emerson College September 9–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton 29% Donald Trump 57% Gary Johnson 5% Jill Stein 3% 28 600 ± 3.9%

California 55 electoral votes (Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%(Democratic in 2012) 60%–37%

Winner (Democratic in 2016) 62%–32%

Two-way race Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of error USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times October 22–30, 2016 Hillary Clinton 58% Donald Trump 32% 26 1,365 ± 2.3% USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times September 1–8, 2016 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump 33% 25 4,212 ± 2.0%

Four-way race