This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.
As of May 2012, both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have led polls in multiple states. They have both also reached at least 20 percent in polls in multiple states. Before announcing that they would not run, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin were also leading polls in multiple states with numbers above 20 percent. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum were also able to lead polls in multiple states earlier in the race, but Cain suspended his campaign on December 3 after multiple allegations of sexual impropriety,James Oliphant, "Herman Cain drops out of presidential race" (December 3, 2011). Los Angeles Times. Bachmann dropped out on January 4, one day after her poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which she came in sixth place and received just 5 percent of the vote,Sarah Wheaton, "Bachmann Says She Will Not Continue in the Race" (January 4, 2012). New York Times. Perry dropped out on January 19 after finishing fifth in Iowa with just over 10 percent of the vote, finishing sixth in New Hampshire with less than 1 percent of the vote and with "lagging" poll numbers ahead of the South Carolina primary, and Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10. Newt Gingrich announced he would drop out of the race after a poor showing in the northeast on April 24.
Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Jeb Bush of Florida, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and John Thune of South Dakota all succeeded in leading polls in their home states at some point in 2011, although only Pawlenty actually launched a campaign. Pawlenty exited the race on August 14, one day after finishing third in Iowa's Ames Straw Poll, citing a lack of campaign funds.Kate O'Hare, "Tim Pawlenty quits after third-place straw-poll finish" (August 14, 2011). Los Angeles Times.Robert J. Vickers, "Pawlenty to headline state GOP meeting" (January 3, 2012). The Patriot-News.
Polling for completed primaries
Indiana (May 8)
Winner: Mitt Romney Primary date: May 8, 2012 Delegates: 46
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherHowey/DePauw Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 503 Mar. 26–28, 2012 Rick Santorum 27% Mitt Romney 26% Newt Gingrich 6% Ron Paul 6%, Undecided 35%
North Carolina (May 8)
Winner: Mitt Romney Primary date: May 8, 2012 Delegates: 55
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherSurvey USA Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 451 Apr. 26–30, 2012 Mitt Romney55% Rick Santorum15% Ron Paul12% Newt Gingrich 11%, Undecided 7%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 521 Apr. 20–22, 2012 Mitt Romney48% Newt Gingrich30% Ron Paul12% Someone else/Not sure 10%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.6% Sample size: 461 Apr. 4–7, 2012 Mitt Romney34% Rick Santorum30% Newt Gingrich17% Ron Paul 11%, Someone else/Not sure 8% Rick Santorum42% Mitt Romney38% Ron Paul10% Not sure 9%High PointHigh Point Margin of error: ±6.4% Sample size: 239 Mar. 19–22, 24–29, 2012 Mitt Romney31% Rick Santorum25% Ron Paul15% Newt Gingrich 12%, Undecided/Don't know/Refused 18%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 561 Mar. 22–25, 2012 Mitt Romney30% Rick Santorum30% Newt Gingrich19% Ron Paul 13%, Someone else/Not sure 8% Rick Santorum43% Mitt Romney37% Ron Paul13% Not sure 8%SurveyUSA Margin of error: ±5% Sample size: 403 Mar. 16–20, 2012 Rick Santorum34% Mitt Romney26% Newt Gingrich18% Ron Paul 10%, Undecided 11%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 492 Mar. 8–11, 2012 Mitt Romney31% Rick Santorum27% Newt Gingrich24% Ron Paul 8%, Someone else/Not sure 10% Rick Santorum42% Mitt Romney38% Ron Paul10% Not sure 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.8% Sample size: 411 Feb. 29 – Mar. 1, 2012 Rick Santorum31% Mitt Romney25% Newt Gingrich23% Ron Paul 8%, Someone else/Not sure 13% Rick Santorum43% Mitt Romney33% Ron Paul10% Not sure 14%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.4% Sample size: 819 Feb 3–5, 2012 Newt Gingrich30% Mitt Romney30% Rick Santorum20% Ron Paul 11%, Someone else/Not sure 9% Newt Gingrich 45% Mitt Romney42% Not sure 13% Mitt Romney 67% Ron Paul23% Not sure 10% Mitt Romney 45% Rick Santorum44% Not sure 11%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 555 Jan. 5–8, 2012 Newt Gingrich25% Rick Santorum24% Mitt Romney22% Ron Paul 9%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Rick Perry 4%, Buddy Roemer 1%, someone else/not sure 11% Newt Gingrich 43% Mitt Romney42% Not sure 15% Mitt Romney 67% Ron Paul 21% Not sure 12% Mitt Romney 52% Rick Perry 35% Not sure 13% Rick Santorum 51% Mitt Romney 33% Not sure 16%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.1% Sample size: 568 Dec. 1–4, 2011 Newt Gingrich51% Mitt Romney14% Michele Bachmann8% Ron Paul 7%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson 0%, Someone else/Not sure 11%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.5% Sample size: 474 Oct. 27–31, 2011 Herman Cain30% Newt Gingrich22% Mitt Romney19% Rick Perry 10%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Ron Paul 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Gary Johnson 0%, someone else/not sure 8% Mitt Romney50% Rick Perry35% – not sure 16% Herman Cain49% Mitt Romney37% – not sure 14% Herman Cain53% Rick Perry28% – not sure 19%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Sep. 30 – Oct. 3, 2011 Herman Cain21% Chris Christie19% Newt Gingrich13% Mitt Romney 13%, Rick Perry 11%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Ron Paul 6%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Someone else/Not sure 7% Herman Cain27% Newt Gingrich17% Mitt Romney17% Rick Perry 15%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Ron Paul 6%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Someone else/Not sure 8%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Sep. 1–4, 2011 Rick Perry33% Sarah Palin13% Mitt Romney10% Herman Cain 9%, Ron Paul 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Michele Bachmann 5%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, someone else/undecided 12% Rick Perry35% Mitt Romney12% Ron Paul10% Herman Cain 9%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Rick Santorum 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/undecided 12%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Aug. 4–7, 2011 Sarah Palin17% Rick Perry17% Mitt Romney17% Herman Cain 11%, Newt Gingrich 10%, Michele Bachmann 9%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/undecided 9% Michele Bachmann17% Rick Perry17% Mitt Romney16% Newt Gingrich 11%, Ron Paul 11%, Herman Cain 9%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/undecided 13%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Jul. 7–10, 2011 Mitt Romney18% Michele Bachmann17% Rick Perry14% Sarah Palin 12%, Herman Cain 8%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/undecided 9% Mitt Romney 23% Michele Bachmann 22% Rick Perry 14% Herman Cain 9%, Newt Gingrich 9%, Ron Paul 6%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/undecided 10%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Jun. 8–11, 2011 Mitt Romney 20% Herman Cain 18% Sarah Palin 17% Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 8%, Michele Bachmann 5%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/undecided 10%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Feb. 16–21, 2011 Mike Huckabee 24% Newt Gingrich 18% Mitt Romney 18% Sarah Palin 16%, Ron Paul 6%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mitch Daniels 2%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 11%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Jan. 20–23, 2011 Mike Huckabee 27% Newt Gingrich 18% Sarah Palin 16% Mitt Romney 11%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Ron Paul 6%, Mitch Daniels 3%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 10%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Dec. 17–19, 2010 Newt Gingrich 21% Sarah Palin 21% Mike Huckabee 18% Mitt Romney 18%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Mitch Daniels 1%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 12%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Nov. 19–21, 2010 Mike Huckabee 25% Sarah Palin 21% Newt Gingrich 17% Mitt Romney 10%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, John Thune 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, someone else/undecided 12%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.6% Sample size: 307 Oct. 30–31, 2010 Newt Gingrich 23% Mike Huckabee 19% Sarah Palin 19% Mitt Romney 14%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Mitch Daniels 2%, Mike Pence 2%, John Thune 0%, someone else/undecided 16%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Apr. 8–11, 2010 Mike Huckabee 30% Sarah Palin 30% Mitt Romney 27% undecided 14%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.6% Sample size: 311 Mar. 12–15, 2010 Mike Huckabee 30% Sarah Palin 27% Mitt Romney 25% undecided 17%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 646 Feb. 12–15, 2010 Mike Huckabee 33% Sarah Palin 27% Mitt Romney 25% undecided 14%
West Virginia (May 8)
Winner: Mitt Romney Primary date: May 8, 2012 Delegates: 31
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.7% Sample size: 300 Sep. 30 – Oct. 2, 2011 Herman Cain 21% Chris Christie 17% Newt Gingrich 14% Mitt Romney 13%, Michele Bachmann 9%, Rick Perry 9%, Ron Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Someone else/Undecided 7% Herman Cain 24% Newt Gingrich 18% Mitt Romney 16% Rick Perry 15%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Ron Paul 6%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Someone else/Undecided 9%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±6.1% Sample size: 257 Sep. 1–4, 2011 Rick Perry 32% Sarah Palin 14% Mitt Romney 14% Newt Gingrich 8%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Herman Cain 5%, Ron Paul 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, someone else/undecided 14% Rick Perry 33% Mitt Romney 14% Michele Bachmann 11% Newt Gingrich 11%, Ron Paul 7%, Herman Cain 6%, Rick Santorum 4%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/undecided 13%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.5% Sample size: 314 May 11–12, 2011 Mike Huckabee 21% Sarah Palin 15% Mitt Romney 15% Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 9%, Donald Trump 9%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, someone else/undecided 12%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.2% Sample size: 355 Jan. 20–23, 2011 Mike Huckabee 28% Sarah Palin 23% Newt Gingrich 17% Mitt Romney 10%, Ron Paul 6%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mitch Daniels 2%, John Thune 0%, someone else/undecided 8%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 521 Oct. 30–31, 2010 Sarah Palin 25% Mike Huckabee 22% Newt Gingrich 15% Mitt Romney 15%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mike Pence 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 17%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 553 Sep. 18–19, 2010 Mike Huckabee 27% Sarah Palin 24% Newt Gingrich 16% Mitt Romney 13%, Ron Paul 6%, someone else 5%, undecided 9%
Nebraska (May 15)
Winner: Mitt Romney Primary date: May 15, 2012 Delegates: 35
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 440 Mar. 22–25, 2012 Rick Santorum39% Mitt Romney25% Newt Gingrich16% Ron Paul 10%, Someone else/Not sure 10% Rick Santorum51% Mitt Romney30% Ron Paul10% Not sure 9%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Sep. 30 – Oct. 2, 2011 Herman Cain27% Chris Christie19% Newt Gingrich12% Michele Bachmann 8%, Mitt Romney 8%, Rick Perry 7%, Ron Paul 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Someone else/Not sure 8% Herman Cain30% Newt Gingrich16% Mitt Romney13% Michele Bachmann 10%, Rick Perry 10%, Ron Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10%Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.3% Sample size: 519 Jan. 26–27, 2011 Mike Huckabee21% Sarah Palin19% Newt Gingrich18% Mitt Romney 15%, Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, John Thune 3%, Mitch Daniels 1%, undecided 12%
Oregon (May 15)
Winner: Mitt Romney Primary date: May 15, 2012 Delegates: 29
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherSurveyUSA Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 425 May 7–10, 2012 Mitt Romney 58% Ron Paul 14% Rick Santorum 11% Newt Gingrich 6%, Other 3%, Undecided 7%SurveyUSA Margin of error: ±4.6%