2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.

Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history.

Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942. The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.

Democratic primary Candidates Declared Dennis Melton Natalie Tennant, secretary of state of West Virginia and candidate for governor in 2011 David Wamsley, developer

Withdrew Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican state delegate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, 2010 and 2012

Declined Ralph Baxter, attorney and CEO of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe Mike Callaghan, former assistant United States Attorney and former chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party Gaston Caperton, former governor Nick Casey, former chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party (running for the U.S. House) Robin Davis, justice for the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia Glen Gainer III, West Virginia state auditor (running for WV-01) Booth Goodwin, United States attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia Carte Goodwin, former U.S. senator Walt Helmick, West Virginia agriculture commissioner Jim Humphreys, former state senator and nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2000 and 2002 Jeff Kessler, president of the West Virginia Senate and candidate for governor in 2011 Corey Palumbo, state senator John Perdue, West Virginia state treasurer and candidate for governor in 2011 Nick Preservati, attorney Nick Rahall, U.S. representative Jay Rockefeller, incumbent U.S. senator Allen Tackett, former adjutant general of the West Virginia National Guard Rick Thompson, West Virginia Secretary of Veterans Affairs, former speaker of the West Virginia House of Delegates and candidate for governor in 2011 Earl Ray Tomblin, governor of West Virginia Erik Wells, state senator Bob Wise, former governor

Endorsements

Polling Poll source SheirlFletcher DavidHarless NatalieTennant DavidWamsley Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 600 ± 4% 8% 3% 51% 4% — 34%

Poll source RalphBaxter RobinDavis NickPreservati NatalieTennant Other UndecidedMBE ResearchMBE Research May 1–2, 2013 207 1% 12% 1% 40% — 38%

Poll source RobinDavis CarteGoodwin NickRahall Other UndecidedHarper PollingHarper Polling January 21, 2013 579 ± 4.07% 17% 8% 38% — 37%

Results

Republican primary Candidates Declared Larry Butcher Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. representative Matthew Dodrill

Withdrew Rick LeMasters, retired Marine officer and state employee Pat McGeehan, former state delegate and former Air Force Intelligence officer and captain (running for House of Delegates) Scott Regan, Democratic candidate for the state senate in 2010 Edwin Vanover, former Bramwell Police Chief and Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in 2012

Declined Bill Maloney, businessman and nominee for governor in 2011 and 2012 David McKinley, U.S. representative Patrick Morrisey, attorney general of West Virginia John Raese, businessman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1984, 2006, 2010 and 2012 and candidate for governor in 1988

Endorsements

Polling Poll source ShelleyMoore Capito RickLemasters PatMcGeehan PatrickMorrisey ScottRegan EdwinVanover UndecidedHarper Polling January 21, 2013 462 ± 4.56% 73% — — 10% — — 18%Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 348 ± 5.3% 72% 5% 4% — 1% 2% 17%Harper PollingHarper Polling September 24–25, 2013 354 ± 5.21% 77% — 7% — — — 16%

Poll source Shelley Moore Capito conservative UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 348 ± 5.3% 65% 21% 14%

Poll source ShelleyMoore Capito DavidMcKinley UndecidedHarper Polling January 21, 2013 462 ± 4.56% 70.5% 14.75% 14.75%

Results

Independents and third parties Candidates Declared Bob Henry Baber (Mountain Party), writer, former mayor of Richwood, nominee for governor of West Virginia in 2011 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 John Buckley (Libertarian Party), attorney, retired law clerk, former Virginia state delegate, and cousin of William F. Buckley, Jr. Phil Hudok (Constitution Party), nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2010

Withdrawn Martin Staunton (Independent), former TV anchor (moved to Georgia)

General election Debates A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston. Complete video of debate

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014

Polling Poll source NatalieTennant (D) Shelley MooreCapito (R) Other UndecidedWest Virginia Poll August 15–22, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 40% 45% — 15%Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 36% 50% — 14%Harper Polling September 24–25, 2013 640 ± 3.87% 34% 51% — 15%Clarity CampaignsClarity Campaigns January 29–30, 2014 1,727 ± 2.35% 39% 45% — 16%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports February 19–20, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 35% 49% 4% 12%Vox Populi Polling April 16–17, 2014 571 ± 4.1% 33% 49% — 19%Rasmussen Reports May 14–15, 2014 750 ± 4% 39% 48% 5% 9%West Virginia Poll May 19–22, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 38% 49% — 13%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,750 ± 2.7% 40% 47% 1% 11%Rasmussen Reports August 19–20, 2014 750 ± 4% 33% 50% — 17%West Virginia PollWest Virginia Poll August 15–23, 2014 401 ± 4.9% 37% 54% — 9%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,284 ± 4% 32% 55% 1% 12%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,066 ± 4% 33% 56% 1% 9%Rasmussen Reports September 30 – October 1, 2014 750 ± 4% 39% 50% 3% 8%CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 877 ± 5% 34% 56% 0% 10%

With Davis Poll source RobinDavis (D) Shelley MooreCapito (R) Other UndecidedHarper PollingHarper Polling January 21, 2013 1,444 ± 2.58% 24% 51% — 25%MBE Research May 1–2, 2013 406 ± 4.87% 32% 51% — 18%

With Fletcher Poll source SheirlFletcher (D) Shelley MooreCapito (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 26% 54% — 20%

Poll source SheirlFletcher (D) PatMcGeehan (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 24% 27% — 48%

With Goodwin Poll source CarteGoodwin (D) Shelley MooreCapito (R) Other UndecidedHarper Polling January 21, 2013 1,444 ± 2.58% 19% 53% — 28%

With Rahall Poll source NickRahall (D) Shelley MooreCapito (R) Other UndecidedHarper Polling January 21, 2013 1,444 ± 2.58% 32% 50% — 18%

With Rockefeller Poll source JayRockefeller (D) Shelley MooreCapito (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 932 ± 3.2% 44% 48% — 7%Repass & Partners August 22–25, 2012 401 ± 4.9% 44% 48% — 8%

With Tennant Poll source NatalieTennant (D) PatMcGeehan (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013 1,110 ± 2.9% 42% 32% — 26%

Results

By county CountyShelley Moore CapitoRepublicanNatalie TennantDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Barbour2,77265.7%1,26530.0%1794.3%1,50735.7%4,216Berkeley14,44667.2%6,39629.7%6673.1%8,05037.7%21,509Boone3,47853.8%2,79843.3%1862.9%68010.5%6,462Braxton2,05055.8%1,50941.1%1153.1%54114.7%3,674Brooke3,60656.7%2,45338.6%3044.7%1,15318.1%6,363Cabell12,68759.8%7,95537.5%5872.8%4,73222.3%21,229Calhoun1,10462.0%60534.0%724.0%49928.0%1,781Clay1,46464.1%74732.7%733.2%71731.4%2,284Doddridge1,26275.1%33920.2%794.7%92354.9%1,680Fayette5,47353.5%4,35442.6%3993.9%1,11910.9%10,226Gilmer98958.6%57233.9%1267.5%41724.7%1,687Grant2,26583.5%35413.0%953.5%1,91170.5%2,714Greenbrier5,51557.7%3,66338.3%3774.0%1,85219.4%9,555Hampshire3,79572.1%1,25923.9%2103.9%2,53648.2%5,264Hancock4,72961.8%2,52833.0%4005.3%2,20128.8%7,657Hardy2,33568.9%89426.4%1584.7%1,44142.5%3,387Harrison10,37557.8%6,91038.5%6693.7%3,46519.3%17,954Jackson5,47465.2%2,69732.1%1192.6%2,77733.1%8,390Jefferson7,94357.8%21,03938.9%4543.3%2,58718.9%13,753Kanawha30,74757.8%21,03939.5%1,4532.7%9,70818.3%53,239Lewis3,05465.6%1,41230.3%1874.1%1,64235.3%4,653Lincoln2,70960.8%1,59935.9%1443.2%1,11024.9%4,452Logan4,70061.5%2,78036.4%1632.1%1,92025.1%7,643Marion7,32950.9%6,57545.7%4993.5%7545.2%14,403Marshall5,59066.3%2,60730.9%2352.8%2,98335.4%8,432Mason4,44863.5%2,37133.8%1912.7%2,07729.7%7,010McDowell1,90952.8%1,61544.7%892.5%2948.1%3,613Mercer9,66866.8%4,35630.1%4523.2%5,31236.7%14,476Mineral4,73571.8%1,53823.3%3184.9%3,19748.5%6,591Mingo3,78962.0%2,18035.7%1382.2%1,60926.3%6,107Monongalia10,51554.3%8,06341.6%7914.0%2,45212.7%19,369Monroe2,25762.7%1,22033.9%1213.4%1,03728.8%3,598Morgan3,45268.3%1,39627.6%2054.1%2,05640.7%5,053Nicholas4,29563.2%2,17332.0%3324.8%2,12229.2%6,800Ohio7,65664.5%3,88932.7%3332.8%3,76731.8%11,878Pendleton1,55773.7%51524.4%422.0%1,04249.3%2,114Pleasants1,15066.5%50729.3%724.2%64337.2%1,729Pocahontas1,42656.8%89435.6%1907.6%53221.2%2,510Preston4,85767.4%2,02328.1%3304.7%2,83441.3%7,210Putnam11,10369.2%4,54328.3%3922.5%6,56040.9%16,038Raleigh13,55865.9%6,38831.1%6163.0%7,17034.8%20,562Randolph4,49964.5%2,11630.4%3555.1%2,38334.1%6,970Ritchie2,11875.5%55519.8%1324.8%1,56355.7%2,805Roane2,41860.9%1,40835.5%1313.5%1,01025.4%3,968Summers1,80656.0%1,28139.7%1404.3%52516.3%3,227Taylor2,66761.6%1,52135.1%1413.4%1,14626.5%4,331Tucker1,74164.5%81530.2%1445.3%92634.3%2,700Tyler1,51871.6%49923.5%1044.9%1,01948.1%2,121Upshur4,35670.8%1,57625.6%2213.6%2,78045.2%6,153Wayne6,02860.5%3,64936.6%2912.9%2,37923.9%9,968Webster1,10555.4%79539.8%954.8%31015.6%1,995Wetzel2,42359.5%1,49136.6%1583.8%93222.9%4,072Wirt1,00169.1%38226.4%634.5%61942.8%1,448Wood14,72367.9%6,22628.7%7203.4%8,49739.2%21,669Wyoming3,15263.0%1,71234.2%1372.7%1,44028.8%5,001Totals281,82062.1%156,36034.5%15,4793.4%125,46027.6%453,659 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Barbour (largest city: Philippi) Cabell (largest city: Huntington) Calhoun (largest city: Grantsville) Clay (largest city: Clay) Gilmer (largest city: Glenville) Greenbrier (largest city: Lewisburg) Hancock (largest city: Weirton) Hardy (largest city: Moorefield) Jackson (largest city: Ravenswood) Jefferson (largest city: Charles Town) Lewis (largest city: Weston) Marshall (largest city: Moundsville) Mason (largest city: Point Pleasant) Mercer (largest city: Bluefield) Monongalia (largest city: Morgantown) Monroe (largest city: Peterstown) Nicholas (largest city: Summersville) Ohio (largest city: Wheeling) Pendleton (largest city: Franklin) Pleasants (largest city: St. Marys) Pocahontas (largest city: Marlinton) Raleigh (largest city: Beckley) Randolph (largest city: Elkins) Roane (largest city: Spencer) Summers (largest city: Hinton) Taylor (largest city: Grafton) Tucker (largest city: Parsons) Tyler (largest city: Paden City) Wayne (largest city: Kenova)