The 2014 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the election of the governor of Minnesota, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor Senator Al Franken ran for re-election to a second term. Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014, in which Franken was renominated and the Republicans picked financial executive Mike McFadden. In the general election, Franken defeated him and Independence Party nominee Steve Carlson and Heather Johnson of the Libertarian Party with 53% of the vote. As of , this is the last time that a male candidate won a U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. This is also the last time that the winner of Minnesota's Class 2 Senate seat won a majority of counties.
Background Franken challenged incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman in 2008. When the initial count was completed on November 18, Franken was trailing Coleman by 215 votes. This close margin triggered a mandatory recount. After reviewing ballots that had been challenged during the recount and counting 953 wrongly rejected absentee ballots, the State Canvassing Board officially certified the recount results with Franken holding a 225-vote lead.
On January 6, 2009, Coleman's campaign filed an election contest and on April 13, a three-judge panel dismissed Coleman's Notice of Contest and ruled that Franken had won the election by 312 votes. Coleman's appeal of the panel's decision to the Minnesota Supreme Court was unanimously rejected on June 30, and he conceded the election. Franken was sworn in as Minnesota's junior senator on July 7, 2009.
Because Franken's margin of victory was so slim, the seat was initially thought to be a top target for Republicans, but Politico reported in a May 2013 article that Franken's high approval rating, his large war chest, and the Republicans' struggle to find a top-tier candidate meant that Franken was the "heavy favorite" in the 2014 election.
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary Candidates Declared Al Franken, incumbent U.S. senator Sandra Henningsgard
Results
Republican primary At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, after ten ballots, Mike McFadden received the party's endorsement. Chris Dahlberg, Monti Moreno, Julianne Ortman and Phillip Parrish had all sought the endorsement but withdrew in favor of McFadden. Only Jim Abeler continued in the race and contested the August primary against McFadden. David Carlson did not participate in the convention after a dispute with party leadership over nominating petitions. He, Patrick D. Munro and Ole Savior also appeared on the ballot.
Candidates Declared Jim Abeler, state representative David Carlson, veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 Mike McFadden, financial executive Patrick D. Munro Ole Savior, perennial candidate
Withdrew Chris Dahlberg, St. Louis County commissioner Monti Moreno, bison farmer, former hair salon owner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1996 Julianne Ortman, state senator Phillip Parrish, U.S. Navy reservist Harold Shudlick, retired U.S. Army chaplain and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006 and 2012
Declined Michele Bachmann, U.S. representative Laura Brod, former state representative Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator Chip Cravaack, former U.S. representative Bill Guidera, finance chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota Pete Hegseth, CEO of Concerned Veterans for America, former executive director of Vets For Freedom and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 John Kline, U.S. representative Jason Lewis, radio talk show host and political commentator Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota Rich Stanek, Hennepin County sheriff
Endorsements
Polling Pollsource JimAbeler DavidCarlson ChrisDahlberg DavidLatvaaho MikeMcFadden MontiMoreno JulianneOrtman PhillipParrish HaroldShudlick Other UndecidedPPPPPP October 27–29, 2013 305 ±5.7% 12% — 10% — 11% 2% 12% — — — 53%TPCTPC February 28–March 1, 2014 400 ±4.9% 8% — 4% — 8% 1% 16% 0% 1% — 52%SuffolkSuffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 8% 1% 2% 1% 12% 0% 14% 1% — — 63%SurveyUSASurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 404 ± 5% 16% — — — 44% — — — — 19% 21%
Republican primary Poll source MicheleBachmann LauraBrod ChipCravaack JohnKline ErikPaulsen RichStanek Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 275 ± 5.9% 45% 4% 13% 19% 11% 2% 6%
Results
Independence primary The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato. Businessman Kevin Terrell won the party's endorsement, but lost the primary to Steve Carlson. Carlson did not ask for an endorsement from the Independence Party, and self-identified with the Tea Party. For their part, the Independence Party disowned Carlson, who defended Todd Akin's controversial "legitimate rape" comments and said that George Zimmerman "provided a valuable service" by killing Trayvon Martin.
Candidates Declared Jack Shepard, dentist, convicted felon, fugitive and perennial candidate Kevin Terrell, business consultant
Withdrew Hannah Nicollet (running for governor)
Results
Libertarian convention The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.
Candidates Nominee Heather Johnson
General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 1, 2014 Complete video of debate, October 26, 2014
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014
Polling Poll source AlFranken (DFL) MikeMcFadden (R) SteveCarlson (IP) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 36% — — 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 49% 38% — — 13%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 50% 40% — — 11%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 44% 29% — 7% 20%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 48% 42% — 5%Kevin Terrell (IP) 4%, Other 1% 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 49% 38% — — 13%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 2–3, 2014 879 ± 3% 51% 35% 13% — —CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 3,185 ± 2% 53% 40% — 2% 4%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014 750 ± 4% 50% 42% — 2% 6%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV August 19–21, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 51% 42% 2% 2% 3%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov 3,607 ± 2% 49% 41% — 1% 9%Mason-Dixon/Star TribuneMason-Dixon/Star Tribune September 8–10, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 49% 36% 3% 1% 11%Rasmussen Reports September 29–30, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 41% — 3% 6%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov 2,562 ± 2% 49% 42% — 0% 8%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV 577 ± 4.2% 55% 37% 3% 2%Heather Johnson (L) 1%, Other 1% 3%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies October 5–7, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 46% 39% — 15%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 14–16, 2014 597 ± 4.1% 53% 38% 3% 3% 3%Mason-Dixon/Star TribuneMason-Dixon/Star Tribune October 20–22, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 48% 39% 3% 1% 9%CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,430 ± 3% 51% 41% — 1% 7%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 27–30, 2014 596 ± 4.1% 51% 40% 4% 3%Heather Johnson (L) 2%, Other 1% 3%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) JimAbeler (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 50% 39% — 11%SurveyUSASurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 49% 37% — 14%Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 45% 29% 8% 19%SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 48% 39% 8%Kevin Terrell (IP) 6%, Other 2% 5%Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 50% 39% — 11%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) MicheleBachmann (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ± 2.8% 54% 39% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ± 3.1% 57% 35% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 824 ± 3.4% 52% 40% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 5–8, 2012 937 ± 3.2% 55% 37% — 8%Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 54% 40% — 7%Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 55% 38% — 7%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) DavidCarlson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 49% 38% — 13%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) NormColeman (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ± 3.1% 51% 41% — 8%Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 824 ± 3.4% 50% 43% — 6%Public Policy Polling October 5–8, 2012 937 ± 3.2% 51% 41% — 8%Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 50% 44% — 7%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) ChrisDahlberg (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 49% 39% — 12%SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 49% 41% — 10%Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 45% 28% 8% 20%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) JohnKline (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 49% 41% — 11%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) JasonLewis (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 54% 37% — 9%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) MontiMoreno (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 49% 36% — 15%SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 50% 36% — 15%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) PatrickMunro (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 50% 35% — 15%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) JulianneOrtman (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 35% — 14%Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 49% 37% — 14%SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 49% 41% — 10%Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 44% 29% 7% 20%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) ErikPaulsen (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 50% 39% — 11%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) TimPawlenty (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 21–22, 2012 1,236 ± 2.8% 49% 43% — 8%Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012 973 ± 3.1% 52% 41% — 7%Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 824 ± 3.4% 50% 43% — 7%Public Policy Polling October 5–8, 2012 937 ± 3.2% 51% 42% — 7%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) JulieRosen (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 36% — 12%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) OleSavior (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 50% 33% — 17%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) HaroldShudlick (R) Other UndecidedSurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 50% 36% — 14%
Poll source AlFranken (DFL) RichStanek (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 36% — 13%
Results
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Lincoln (largest municipality: Tyler) Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley) Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake) Houston (largest city: La Crescent) Kanabec (largest city: Mora) Kandiyohi (largest city: Willmar) Le Sueur (largest city: Le Sueur) Marshall (largest city: Warren) Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton) Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls) Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks) Pope (largest city: Glenwood) Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls) Renville (largest city: Olivia) Stevens (largest city: Morris) Traverse (largest city: Wheaton) Wabasha (largest city: Lake City) Waseca (largest city: Waseca) Watonwan (largest city: St. James) Yellow Medicine (largest city: Granite Falls) Clay (largest city: Moorhead) Dakota (largest city: Hastings) Olmsted (largest city: Rochester) Washington (largest city: Stillwater)