The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for a second consecutive full term in office. After a competitive six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey. Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chair of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote.

Background

Democratic governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona did not have a lieutenant governor at the time, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term. In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election, but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".

Republican primary The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty" and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.

Candidates Declared Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona Doug Ducey, State Treasurer of Arizona Christine Jones, former executive vice president, General Counsel and corporate secretary for Go Daddy Frank Riggs, former U.S. representative from California and candidate for the U.S. Senate from California in 1998 Scott Smith, Mayor of Mesa Andrew Thomas, former county attorney of Maricopa County, disbarred lawyer, and candidate for Arizona Attorney General in 2010

Withdrew Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe (ran for state treasurer and lost) Al Melvin, state senator John Molina, OB/GYN and former CEO of Phoenix Indian Medical Center

Declined Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County Jan Brewer, incumbent governor Brenda Burns, Corporation Commissioner Wil Cardon, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (ran for Secretary of State and lost) Tom Horne, Attorney General of Arizona (ran for re-election and lost) Martha McSally, retired United States Air Force colonel and nominee for Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2012 (ran for AZ-02 and won) Steve Pierce, state senator Steven Seagal, actor and reserve deputy sheriff

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KenBennett DougDucey ChristineJones AlMelvin JohnMolina FrankRiggs ScottSmith AndrewThomas UndecidedMagellan Strategies August 17–21, 2014 1,281 ± 2.74% 12% 32% 18% — — 2% 21% 8% 7%Harper PollingHarper Polling August 19–20, 2014 812 ± 3.44% 14% 32% 16% — — 2% 19% 7% 10%RemingtonRemington August 17–19, 2014 502 ± 4.37% 10% 33% 18% — — 1% 22% 11% 5%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies August 15–18, 2014 1,322 ± ? 12% 31% 17% — — 3% 22% 8% 7%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies August 12–15, 2014 1,300 ± ? 10% 31% 16% — — 3% 23% 7% 10%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies August 5–7, 2014 1,289 ± 2.73% 11% 29% 13% — — 4% 22% 9% 12%Magellan Strategies July 28–31, 2014 1,644 ± ? 12% 23% 13% — — 5% 21% 10% 16%UndisclosedUndisclosed Late July 2014 ? ± ? 10% 23% 20% — — 2% 15% 9% 21%Harper PollingHarper Polling July 16–17, 2014 885 ± 3.29% 12% 23% 21% — — 1% 13% 7% 22%Behavior Research CenterBehavior Research Center July 10–17, 2014 459 ± 4.7% 10% 13% 17% — — 2% 8% 0% 50%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 14, 2014 691 ± 4% 7% 28% 19% — — 1% 14% 8% 24%HighgroundHighground July 10–12, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 3.5% 17.3% 15.3% — — 1.5% 9.8% 3% 49.8%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies July 9–10, 2014 593 ± 4.02% 11% 26% 22% — — 2% 14% 6% 19%Harper PollingHarper Polling June 25–26, 2014 791 ± 3.48% 12% 33% 15% — — 2% 14% 3% 22%McLaughlin & AssociatesMcLaughlin & Associates June 10, 2014 400 ± 3.48% 8% 22.8% 6.2% — — — 6.5% — 56.5%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies June 3–4, 2014 630 ± 3.9% 12% 28% 12% 2% — 2% 16% 5% 23%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies May 13–14, 2014 760 ± 3.6% 12.7% 27.3% 11.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 11.5% 5.6% 28.8%UndisclosedUndisclosed April 29, 2014 1,367 ± 3.5% 7% 4% 10% — — — 9% 5% 65%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies April 8–9, 2014 ? ± ? 15% 9% 14% — — 1% 6% 6% 45%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014 403 ± 4.9% 20% 6% 16% 1% 1% 1% 12% 9% 34%Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 6% 2% 8% 1% — — 7% 7% 69%SusquehannaSusquehanna Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013 245 ± ? 20% 8% 4% 2% — — 6% 4% 56%

Debate + 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election republican primary debates Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican RepublicanKey: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn Ken Bennett Doug Ducey Christine Jones Frank Riggs Scott Smith Andrew Thomas1 Jul. 20, 2014 Arizona PBS Ted Simons PBS

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Declared Fred DuVal, former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents

Withdrew Ronald Cavanaugh, Libertarian candidate for governor in 2010

Declined Chad Campbell, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General, candidate for governor in 1994 and nominee for governor in 1990 and 2010 (ran for Secretary of State and lost) Marco A. López Jr., former chief of staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former mayor of Nogales Janet Napolitano, president of the University of California, former secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and former governor of Arizona Felecia Rotellini, attorney and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2010 (ran for Attorney General and lost) Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RonCavanaugh FredDuVal UndecidedBehavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 ? ± ? 12% 18% 72%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror ChadCampbell FredDuVal UndecidedMyers ResearchMyers Research May 22–June 13, 2012 ? ± ? 31% 18% 51%

Results

Third parties Candidates Declared Brian Bailey (independent write-in candidate), Arizona Army National Guardsman Cary Dolego (independent), write-in candidate for governor in 2010 Barry Hess (Libertarian Party), perennial candidate Joseph James "J." Johnson (unaffiliated write-in candidate), food account manager and brother of Eddie Johnson John Lewis Mealer (Americans Elect), candidate for the Americans Elect nomination for president in 2012 Alice Novoa (Republican write-in candidate) Diana-Elizabeth Ramseys Rasmussen Kennedy (Independent write-in candidate) Curtis Woolsey (unaffiliated write-in candidate)

Results

General election Debates + 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election debates Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Americans ElectKey: Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn Doug Ducey Fred DuVal Barry Hess John Lewis Mealer1 Sep. 10, 2014 Chandler Center for the ArtsKPNX Brahm Resnik C-SPAN 2 Sep. 28, 2014 Arizona PBS Ted Simons PBS

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DougDucey (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,621 ± 4% 50% 40% 1% 9%The Polling CompanyThe Polling Company October 20–22, 2014 601 ± 4% 42% 35% 7% 15%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 14–16, 2014 1,056 ± 3% 47% 42% 3% 7%Tarrance GroupTarrance Group October 13–16, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 43% 36% 5% 16%McLaughlin & AssociatesMcLaughlin & Associates October 12–14, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 37% 36% 5%Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3% 22%Adrian Gray ConsultingAdrian Gray Consulting October 8–9, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 35% 8%Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3% 14%Moore InformationMoore Information October 7–8, 2014 400 ± ≈4.9% 36% 39% 4%Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1% 21%The Polling CompanyThe Polling Company October 6–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 37% 5%Barry Hess (L) 11%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,808 ± 3% 50% 39% 2% 9%Keating ResearchKeating Research September 17–19, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 39% 7% 13%Tarrance GroupTarrance Group September 15–17, 2014 505 ± 4.5% 44% 38% 7%Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1% 11%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 3,289 ± 3% 39% 38% 15% 9%Rasmussen Reports August 27–28, 2014 850 ± 3% 40% 40% — 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 24–25, 2014 588 ± 4% 35% 35% 12% 18%Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 36% — 29%Undisclosed February 2014 500 ± ? 32% 32% 6% 30%Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 21% 23% — 56%Susquehanna November 27–December 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 36% 33% — 31%

With Bennett Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KenBennett (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 37% 33% — 30%Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 26% 22% — 52%Susquehanna November 27–December 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 38% 33% — 28%

With Jones Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror ChristineJones (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 3,778 ± ? 45% 34% 13% 7%Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 33% 37% — 30%

With Melvin Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AlMelvin (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 32% 37% — 31%

With Molina Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnMolina (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 32% 35% — 33%

With Riggs Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror FrankRiggs (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 32% 36% — 31%

With Smith Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror ScottSmith (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 39% 33% — 28%Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 20% 23% — 57%

With Thomas Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AndrewThomas (R) FredDuVal (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 40% — 25%

Results

By county